dhimes

45 ms·

481.
by dhimes 7y ago
They answer all that in the paper. It's not predicting behavior of people- we can still do stupid things and make this a lot worse. But if we behave and practice social distancing and don't do stupid things, this is the estimate
482.
by dhimes 7y ago
It's curve-fitting. By real epidemiologists. It's not just based on Wuhan, but based on knowledge of how things like this spread. Wuhan fit the model, so there's hope. But it's just curve-fitting. And it depends on
483.
by dhimes 7y ago
At the risk of getting hellbanned for sneaking in reposts of my largely ignored posts from yesterday, the projections for our current situation can be found online here: http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections paper here:
484.
by dhimes 7y ago
This is an excellent point.
485.
by dhimes 7y ago
OK this actually made me lol. Thank you.
486.
by dhimes 7y ago
This puzzle has stayed with me for a decades for two reasons. #1 is it was the first time I was embarrassed in public discourse on Usenet. Guy shot me down pretty hard, but when he was done there was no uncertainty- he was right and I was
487.
by dhimes 7y ago
So that's a couple of weeks away, according to the projections I posted yesterday. Peak deaths in the US are estimated for 15 April.
488.
by dhimes 7y ago
This is a link contained within the paper I posted yesterday.
489.
Covid-19 Impact Projections(covid19.healthdata.org)
2 points by dhimes 7y ago|1 comments
490.
by dhimes 7y ago
I don't know. It worked for me but not for the person I tried to connect to. It may have been something trivial, it may have been something difficult. But Zoom worked right away for her so we use that.
491.
Forecasting Covid-19 health impact by US state in the next 4 months(healthdata.org)
9 points by dhimes 7y ago|0 comments
492.
by dhimes 7y ago
Agree. The big issue is that non-tech people can use zoom. With Jitsi (which I hope to eventually use mostly), you have to be someone who's willing to fool with it a bit to make it work. If some of you 10x programmers would go on a M
493.
by dhimes 7y ago
It would be fun for stupid stuff though that doesn't really matter- you and your friends could chat and make fun of it MST3k style.
494.
by dhimes 7y ago
Exactly. This is going to turn into a game of whack-a-mole whereby we need to load the latest firefox extension that tricks websites into thinking we're using Chrome. Or we could build for Firefox. There's always that.
495.
by dhimes 7y ago
Please, yes, develop on Firefox first. We all need to promise to do this.
496.
by dhimes 7y ago
I wonder how many people are lost to a particular field like this? It's not just the subject, it's also how it's taught. It is very well possible that you would have been a first rate physicist if you had been exposed to it
497.
by dhimes 7y ago
Yes. It took a while for WHO to name it. They didn't want to call it SARS because it was too frightening- SARS caused a lot of devastation in Asia. From the WHO website Q and A [1]: Is COVID-19 the same as SARS? No. The virus that
498.
by dhimes 7y ago
No kidding? I've been remembering it as COrona Virus Infectious Disease 2019. I haven't seen a source on this though- just made sense since CoV was established early in the timeline as corona virus.
499.
by dhimes 7y ago
As we run short on tests it's likely that only the bad off will get tested.
500.
by dhimes 7y ago
I don't see an effect due to increased testing- not a large one anyway. Doubling time is still a bit over 2 days, and has been for 10 days or so.
501.
by dhimes 7y ago
Agreed. I guess I just never clicked anything so didn't notice.
502.
by dhimes 7y ago
I've never seen ads on the lockscreen- and pre-installed crapware has been with us forever. I'm on home edition- it came with the laptop (toshiba satellite, for completeness)
503.
by dhimes 7y ago
Indeed, you have a point. But in the US at least we have a serious trust issue with what we hear. I believe Fauci, but he still has to play by somebody else's rules. I too am tracking the numbers. I seriously and honestly expect the
504.
by dhimes 7y ago
I feel that too. If the bad guys are the only ones talking, they will be pretty convincing.
505.
by dhimes 7y ago
You're smart. Apparently 1% of us just can't keep our damn mouths shut.
506.
by dhimes 7y ago
I fitted a hand-held shower head on one of those and used it for showers when we lost our water heater a few months back. Worked pretty well if you don't mind 'boat showers.' I could see where your idea might actually work.
507.
by dhimes 7y ago
Extending a little charity to your father, maybe he recognized your strengths and helped you develop those. Maybe, for some reason, handiwork is not your thing so he was directing you to where you felt more joy. My father also was both t
508.
by dhimes 7y ago
That sounds like a class.
509.
by dhimes 7y ago
Doesn't that just make you identifiable again?
510.
by dhimes 7y ago
So it would be better to have a bunch of smaller trucks moving cargo. And that means a lot more work for truck drivers.

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