dcolkitt

60 ms·

181.
by dcolkitt 4y ago
Similar studies have found that decaf coffee is associated with similar if not larger health gains.
182.
by dcolkitt 4y ago
Inflation is a function of an overheated economy running with a tight labor and commodity market. If you're positing a 2008-like crisis followed by a deep recession, it's virtually certain that the economy will become deflationary
183.
by dcolkitt 4y ago
Real estate will not crash anywhere near 35%. Even before Covid, housing economists have been warning for a decade that we’ve spent the entirety of the 2010s underbuilding housing[1]. Against that we have huge demographic demand from Gen Z
184.
by dcolkitt 4y ago
Literally all of the bailout tools from 2008, plus many more are available today. In fact the Fed is much more willing to quickly deploy QE because it has experience and has seen it work. This isn’t hypothetical, because it’s exactly what
185.
by dcolkitt 4y ago
The chart you’re posting ends in 2007 at the height of the housing bubble. Housing prices already corrected from this reference point 15 years ago. Given the vast supply-demand mismatch, housing today is generationally underpriced . The si
186.
by dcolkitt 4y ago
Never in the history of modern housing has new housing never not been an overwhelmingly consumed by the people at the top of the income/wealth distribution. Even in the home building explosion of the 50s and 60s, new homes were purchas
187.
by dcolkitt 4y ago
The theory was that Luna would hold intrinsic value from demand for blockspace on the Luna blockchain. Analogous to how Ether is derives value from demand for Ethereum blockspace. So the idea was that the Luna token would stabilize the peg
188.
by dcolkitt 4y ago
So that's the full list of successful startups for a developed economy polity with twice the population of America over the past 25 years... Not exactly impressive.
189.
by dcolkitt 4y ago
Cumulative inflation from 2010 to 2022 was 33%. Cumulative inflation over the preceding 12 years (1998-2022) was 34%. Just because this year’s inflation was high, there’s nothing extraordinary about overall inflation in the post-GFC period.
190.
by dcolkitt 4y ago
> I don't see how they can exist without a judicial system. Smart contracts don't have to exist outside the judicial system. Smart contracts are simply a way to automate transactions in a way that's efficient, transparent,
191.
by dcolkitt 4y ago
To add to this. In 2008, I had a small but genuine fear that society itself would start collapsing. You'd see headlines about bankrupt municipalities turning off their 911 service because they ran out of cash. There were genuine bank r
192.
by dcolkitt 4y ago
> There's nothing stopping the US and Germany from doing the same. Great. So we should do that, right? You agree that Biden should sign an executive order saying any infant formula approved by the EU is legal to sell in the United S
193.
by dcolkitt 4y ago
> Do we really think that there are uniform standards and inspections in all these places? Yes, there are. https://ec.europa.eu/food/safety/labelling-and-nutrition/spe...
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
Germany clearly inspected the formula. Clearly baby formula imported from Germany is still inspected. The only distinction is it's inspected by Germany instead of American inspectors. This would be as insane as Florida insisting that b
195.
by dcolkitt 4y ago
This is just wrong. A non-insignificant fraction of women can't produce milk in high enough quantities to feed infants. This is an undisputed fact. The only alternative to robust infant formula supply is to accept pre-modern levels of
196.
by dcolkitt 4y ago
Almost anyone in America has access to low fee index investing at the push of a few buttons
197.
by dcolkitt 4y ago
Americans enjoy substantially higher material consumption than their European counterparts. The US has 85% higher household consumption expenditures than France (about the median of the EU15). The difference between the US and France is abo
198.
by dcolkitt 4y ago
This is common folk wisdom, but not exactly what macroeconomists actually believe. It's true that deflationary shocks tend to lead to hoarding money and economic activity freezing. But long-run deflation that's baked into the sy
199.
by dcolkitt 4y ago
Mortgages are leverage, but unlike traditional financial leverage not subject to margin calls. Normally high leverage is risky in trading, because small perturbations in price can force liquidations. However with a traditional mortgage, as
200.
by dcolkitt 4y ago
Why would a single person need to buy a 3 bedroom home (the median American home size)? A household with two $120k earners can very comfortably afford a $1 million home at current mortgage rates.
201.
by dcolkitt 4y ago
> Its not like I enjoy them 10/10. So why do I do this? I'll push back on this. I think we have such a deep inbuilt instinct to lie about the things we enjoy that we often delude ourselves. Humans are social creatures, and the
202.
by dcolkitt 4y ago
In particular the bottleneck is often the math, rather than the inability to understand physical reality. Earlier thinkers grasped at what Newton said, but couldn't get very far without the scaffolding of calculus. General relativity r
203.
by dcolkitt 4y ago
The percent of household budgets spent on food has been steadily falling for 50 years. It’s very recently ticked up slightly, but this is a tiny blip on an otherwise very long running trend. Median real wages are the highest they’ve ever be
204.
by dcolkitt 4y ago
There’s no plausible scenario where climate change drives global GDP growth negative over the next 50 year. None. Yea uncontrolled climate change will make life worse than had it not happened. But no it will not outweigh the cumulative bene
205.
by dcolkitt 4y ago
The worst plausible forecast is that climate change will impair global GDP by 25% relative to baseline by 2200 years. Even assuming anemic 1% GDP per capita growth rates, the average world citizen will still nearly twice as wealthy as today
206.
by dcolkitt 4y ago
> Very few places/teams in this world care about cache coherency or memory ordering A lot of HFT shops definitely care about those things.
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
They’re both a function of general anti-market policies of their local government. The City government of San Francisco opposes free markets in both labor and housing. Therefore it has a gigantic housing shortage because developers are shac
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
Code is protected as free speech by the US Supreme Court. There’s no legal avenue by which you could prohibit someone from writing and publishing smart contract code. At best the most you could do is setup a legal barrier to deploying tha
209.
by dcolkitt 4y ago
Vitalik has said using 256-bit word sizes in the EVM was his biggest regret from the early days of Ethereum. As others have mentioned, it was largely chosen because of the ubiquity of 32 byte hashes. But overkill for regular math. One perni
210.
by dcolkitt 4y ago
Approximately $300 billion of value is secured by on-chain smart contracts. What makes it to the front page of HN probably gives a distortionary perception, in the same way that watching sensationalist news makes you think kids are being ab

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