Real estate will not crash anywhere near 35%. Even before Covid, housing economists have been warning for a decade that we’ve spent the entirety of the 2010s un

Real estate will not crash anywhere near 35%. Even before Covid, housing economists have been warning for a decade that we’ve spent the entirety of the 2010s underbuilding housing[1]. Against that we have huge demographic demand from Gen Z reaching prime home buying years. People who aren’t familiar with the underlying fundamentals of the housing market assume the Covid boom was a RE bubble. In reality it was just demand getting pulled forward. A generation of new entrants played musical chairs to grab a house before the supply ran out. 28-year olds who were waiting until they were 35, moved out of city apartments to grab suburban SFHs because they were afraid of being priced out of the market forever. Those same people, sitting on cheap mortgages, aren’t going to sell their house to move back to the city, just to buy a house again at a much higher price in a few years. Covid compressed 7 years of price appreciation into 2, but these prices are the new normal. [1] https://www.freddiemac.com/perspectives/sam-khater/20210415-single-family-shortage https://www.freddiemac.com/perspectives/sam-khater/20210415-...