dcolkitt

7 ms·

31.
by dcolkitt 4y ago
The people accumulating large credit debt have very little overlap with homeowners. The reason for this is very simple. The vast majority of homeowners purchased their house before 2021, and therefore are sitting on gigantic amounts of home
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
> but it seems like the largest player in the market is trying to crush it in order to save the dollar. The US dollar index is now stronger than it's been at any time pre-pandemic since 2002. If anything the Fed is most likely tryin
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
Savings are not anywhere close to "dwindling". There are still huge excess savings accumulated during the pandemic. Relative to 2019 baseline ($1.4T annual), Americans accumulated about $2.2T in excess savings. The 2022 shortfall
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
> Younger people not using FB though seems pretty real. We've already gone through one cycle of "young people are abandoning Facebook" with millenials and Snapchat. And it turned out that the thesis of Snapchat as FB kille
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
At current price, Facebook doesn't have to remain a growth stock. It's trading at a 15 P/E multiple. For comparison Proctor and Gamble is trading at a 25 P/E, Coca Cola at 26 P/E, and Comcast at 33 P/E. For Fac
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
Unless you have an insanely optimistic viewpoint on socialism, it's very unlikely that every laborer will gain if capitalism ends. Even Lenin recognized the need to cap the wages of the highest paid skilled laborers.[1] [1] https:&#x2F
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
There are many class groups that have a potential grievance against capitalism. But pretty sure that FAANG engineers are not one of them.
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
Even if your business is entirely unaffected a recession, it may still be sensible to do a light layoff before things turn. Especially if you've just gone through several years of an extremely tight labor market. The reality is most of
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
It more has to do with tech companies having expanded headcount way more than other industries in the past few years. The reality is that tech cos overbites since market conditions were extremely ebullient in the tech sector circa 2021. A l
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
Also pretty disconcerting that they're doing this at the same time that they're pumping billions into OpenAI (a company with near zero revenue) at a $30 billion valuation.
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
MSFT stock is barely moved on the announcement. Doesn't necessarily seem like the market is rewarding them.
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
There's 1.1 million physicians in the US, and about 12.8 million worldwide. Almost all of whom are making substantially lower salaries than their American counterparts. Many more than 50% lower. Even if 10% were willing to immigrate fo
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
The issue isn't a shortage of residency slots, it's that we don't allow doctors with foreign residencies to practice in the United States. The physicians in Spain and South Korea and Costa Rica are really good. Arguably bette
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
Most Tether users either aren't in North America and/or are directly holding on-chain. Add up all the US and Canadian centralized exchanges, and accounts for much less than 10% of Tether's outstanding float. Now I certainly d
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
Two issues here with the comparison. First Coinbase isn't just an exchange in the sense that the CME is an exchange. Coinbase is an exchange, a clearinghouse, a custodian, a broker dealer, a prime brokerage, and a user platform. When y
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
Core CPI ex-shelter was negative the previous two months. The way BLS measures shelter is notoriously laggy. High-frequency metrics of shelter inflation (e.g. Zillow data)[1] is falling off a cliff. The upshot is that while CPI is probabl
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
Don’t think anybody doubts that the current achievements are intellectually impressive. The issue for VCs is how valuable are they from a business perspective. Creating photos of people in places they’ve never been is really cool, but reali
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
So far, when asked what's the use case for ChatGPT/LLMs, the sole answer with clear PMF is marketing copy. Agree it is very good for that. Just as crypto had very clear PMF for cross-border payments and stablecoins in middle incom
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
There have been a few valiant attempts to build crypto exchanges with modern technology and matching engines. Generally the problem these run into is that, while the algo traders and market makers love them, they have no competitive advanta
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
Yeah, as an exchange FTX was pretty terrible. The matching engine was notorious for being high latency, unreliable, and having all sorts of undocumented issues. Every algo trader there will tell you horror stories about trying to cancel an
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
So there are a couple of reasons that things wouldn't necessarily converge to equilibrium, and they're fairly well documented in all the asset classes you mention. Foreign stocks: There's a well-documented effect called &quot
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
Metabolic set points can and will drift over time. So if somebody starts out with a setpoint at 22 BMI, they might naturally be anywhere from 21-24 BMI at any given time. As food in the environment becomes more hyper-palatable and calorical
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
So you agree, the overwhelming impact of diet on health is from reducing obesity? And surely you also agree with the science that we now have drugs that are far more effective at reducing obesity than any diet known to man.
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
Air pollution seems unlikely as it's been falling for decades, and America has much lower levels than Europe. Microplastics are a perennial boogey man, and probably a genuine ecological issue, but there has no been mountains of studies
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
GLP-1 agonists were discovered in the 1980s, and there are already statistically significant population samples who have been using them to treat T2D for decades. Any serious common side effect would have been already discovered from the la
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
Non-obese people who eat McDonalds and drink Coke are unequivocally healthier than obese people who adhere to the healthiest diets. There's absolutely zero academic research that disputes that obesity (and exercise) by far is the large
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
Try to find any major research showing either diet has a significant health impact on either 1) non-overweight individuals who remain non-overweight; or 2) has a health impact after controlling for changes in weight/obesity/body
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
You haven't controlled for body weight changes though. Nobody doubts that diets (if adhered to) can reduce weight. So if biomarkers improve relative to an alternative diet, the question is it because A) the Med diet is more effective a
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
It really is not a frame of mine. We know this because GWAR genome studies find that the SNPs most correlated with obesity are expressed in the hypothalamus, which has nothing to do with higher thought.
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by dcolkitt 4y ago
Trans fats are indeed unhealthy, but 1) it's been nearly a decade since they were basically removed from fast food, and 2) they don't contribute to obesity. As for HFCS, there's basically zero evidence that they're a maj

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