darawk

75 ms·

691.
by darawk 6y ago
Audits of the rich are not economical for the IRS. Audits of the poor are extremely cost efficient, because they can be automated, and because they don't fight back.
692.
by darawk 6y ago
There are enormous numbers, in absolute terms, that are reasonably privileged in the modern world. Millions. But only a tiny number of those people go on to found a billion dollar company, or become one of the greatest composers in world hi
693.
by darawk 6y ago
> That’s my point, their success was in making an elite social group, not in any special VC strategy. The only way to replicate their success (if that’s what you define success as) would be to somehow supersede their reputation as the mo
694.
by darawk 6y ago
Yes, the rational default for a lay person is to accept expert consensus. But the question at hand is what weight they should give that consensus. And that weighting should change, depending on the nature of the system being understood. W
695.
by darawk 6y ago
But doing that doesn't fix the problem for them, though. It just forces them to make a different trade-off with their limited resources than they naturally would have.
696.
by darawk 6y ago
There are very good reasons to do exactly that. I don't know how often you work with complex models like this - but I do all the time. They are very often wrong for very subtle reasons. It's extremely difficult to satisfactorily p
697.
by darawk 6y ago
I agree, but that's beside the point. The point is that the earth is a complex, dynamic suite of feedback loops, where changing one knob does not necessarily lead to the simplistic outcome that it might, if all else were held constant.
698.
by darawk 6y ago
There is a vast gulf between "we should assume it would be likely to cause warming, all else equal", which is more or less reasonable, and "We have proven that it would definitely cause warming".
699.
by darawk 6y ago
It is extremely far from as certain as science ever is. Randomized, controlled experiments are as certain as science ever is. This is pretty far from that. The evidence is as good as any non-controlled experiment is going to be, perhaps. Bu
700.
by darawk 6y ago
It isn't actually that simple, though. Adding CO2 to the atmosphere in isolation, with no reaction from the environment will indeed cause warming. But we don't live in a static model. The environment reacts to things in complex wa
701.
by darawk 6y ago
Real expertise and knowledge is gained by doing both . Just interacting with things gets you to a certain level, but if you want to go beyond that, you need to interface with the problem at an abstract level. Anyone with actual expertise i
702.
by darawk 6y ago
I think your point is important to understand, but I think it's kind of missing the point of measuring emissions by country. Exporting manufacturing, etc certainly does not solve the problem. But that's in part because no one coun
703.
by darawk 6y ago
You can't just arrest people for selling things on the street if you can't prove that its stolen. There's a reason they don't arrest them.
704.
by darawk 6y ago
> Sure, and I think they are being presented civilly - the "math is racist" CNN article is quite mild in tone https://money.cnn.com/2016/09/06/technology/weapons-of-math-... . - but that does
705.
by darawk 6y ago
Radical ideas can be presented just as civilly as conservative ideas. Noam Chomsky does a perfectly fine job of being civil.
706.
by darawk 6y ago
This is a good general point, but this sort of thing is probably not an issue for the types of indicators he's using, and the simple regression models he's using. The model is not sufficiently complex to learn regime patterns, whi
707.
by darawk 6y ago
All changes are trends. Assuming that the trend will extrapolate to its logical extreme without supporting evidence is unreasonable, however.
708.
by darawk 6y ago
They're not actually using it to zero in on someone, though. What they're doing is using it to build a case against someone they already suspect: Roger Stone.
709.
by darawk 6y ago
If you comply with US laws, you can operate here too. The problem with Chinese companies is that they cannot credibly commit to complying with US law.
710.
by darawk 6y ago
China bans plenty of US apps and services. Facebook, for instance. They are exactly comparable.
711.
by darawk 6y ago
Everyone is pretty sure that "rich people" should pay for everything, and that "rich" is defined as anyone that has 10x more wealth than I do. Whether you're making 20k or making 200k, everyone thinks that real weal
712.
by darawk 6y ago
Ya, I felt the same way. Like they had been reading our channel or something. Good to know other people are doing the same thing.
713.
by darawk 6y ago
I related pretty strongly to this. If you didn't, I highly recommend trying to form a tight-knit little group or two like this. It's really great.
714.
by darawk 6y ago
They built the MTA when they still had the flexibility to do it. Portland is too developed now, too many entrenched interests, it'll never get done. Listen, I am on the same page as you - I would love for it to happen. I would vote for
715.
by darawk 6y ago
> A proper transit network and walkable design ensures that this doesn't become a problem. While that's true, if you don't have a proper transit network, it's a real problem. And many cities aren't in a position
716.
by darawk 6y ago
No, because if Iraq's real numbers are worse, than we are not in their same range.
717.
by darawk 6y ago
This has always been a relatively non-serious fantasy of mine. However, whenever I fantasize about it, I wonder how I would be able to use a computer reliably / in a concentrated way without a home/electricity/internet. But y
718.
by darawk 6y ago
"Reform the police" is a perfectly fine slogan that captures what they claim to want. Its only flaw is that it isn't controversial, and so won't get the same level of attention. This slogan, like all too many things of l
719.
by darawk 6y ago
Ya, that's what anyone intelligent says any time "defund the police" is mentioned (and I completely agree with it, btw). But they should probably choose another slogan if that's what they actually mean. "Defund&quot
720.
by darawk 6y ago
This seems neat. I feel like i've re-invented less complete versions of this dozens of times.

More ›