danielmarkbruce

7 ms·

91.
by danielmarkbruce 1mo ago
I think this comment is AI generated.
92.
by danielmarkbruce 1mo ago
I mean... is this really news? If you think of a local model as a world class hacker giving commands to run in a terminal, and a remote model as a world class hacker ssh'ing into a machine and giving commands to run.... of course it is
93.
by danielmarkbruce 1mo ago
There is no "theory" of tomorrow's weather. We understand the math of every single individual equation of an LLM (for example), just like we understand every single equation in the physics simulation. It's the entirety o
94.
by danielmarkbruce 1mo ago
This is true of most large complex systems though. We run molecular dynamics simulations as an example.
95.
by danielmarkbruce 1mo ago
This is a silly point. Just because the size of these things is too large for our tiny brains, it doesn't mean we have no idea why it does what it does. If you run a physics simulation of a weather system, you have a situation that is
96.
by danielmarkbruce 1mo ago
You can build a model with 100m parameters..... the first L in LLM is not meaningful anymore. So, you build one from scratch.
97.
by danielmarkbruce 1mo ago
This is a silly take. You can learn to build an LLM, there are great resources to do so (there are books about building them from scratch), you can use older model GPUs or rent them by the hour. The value of understanding them is really hig
98.
by danielmarkbruce 1mo ago
Maybe Terry Tao has an idea.
99.
by danielmarkbruce 2mo ago
One side of a trade can be a gamble and the other a hedge. A single transaction doesn't need to be classified as a gamble or hedge - it can be both. As for the market maker themselves - they are definitely not gambling. They are trying
100.
by danielmarkbruce 2mo ago
Because they aren't creating risk. They already have risk - any time you have capital, you have risk it disappears. You don't have risk that the lakers win tonight. You don't have to bet on the game.
101.
by danielmarkbruce 2mo ago
All you are saying is "there is unavoidable risk in the world". Yes, there is. Gambling is creating risks that don't need to be created, for their own sake. Some people like risk all by itself - gamblers.
102.
by danielmarkbruce 2mo ago
That fact it's the default thing isn't the issue. Putting money in the bank is not gambling because you have the underlying risk no matter what. Just holding cash has risks. Any time you try to take some value today and turn it in
103.
by danielmarkbruce 2mo ago
Inflation is a risk. A real, underlying, unavoidable risk. People with that risk aren't gambling. You are conflating risk with gambling. You can go through life without gambling, you can't go through life without risk.
104.
by danielmarkbruce 2mo ago
Buying small pieces of businesses isn't gambling. The fact the price moves around a lot isn't the point of it, it's just a result of people buying/selling. In gambling, the risk itself is the point.
105.
by danielmarkbruce 2mo ago
It doesn't break down. If you are creating risk for it's own sake, it's gambling. If you are doing something to hedge risk, it's not gambling. If your position is unrelated to a risk or wildly above the magnitude, you ar
106.
by danielmarkbruce 2mo ago
No, it isn't. That's just not the definition that is used by people who gamble and are in financial markets. Words have definitions. No one uses the word "gambling" when they buy insurance on their house. They payoff is
107.
by danielmarkbruce 2mo ago
If you are an oil company entering the futures market to reduce your risk on oil prices, you aren't gambling. If I enter the market and short oil for fun, I'm gambling. The stock market isn't gambling if you are just buying e
108.
by danielmarkbruce 2mo ago
You aren't exposed to football game outcomes, nor dice rolls or cards flipping. I, in california, am not exposed to electricity prices in the northeast. My exposure to wheat prices is extremely small - if I go and bet a lot on wheat go
109.
by danielmarkbruce 2mo ago
Gambling.
110.
by danielmarkbruce 2mo ago
It's actually somewhat easy... If you are creating financial exposure to an event with no underlying risk to it, and the point is exposure itself, you are gambling. In your snow example, those guys were gambling on snow for fun. The fo
111.
by danielmarkbruce 2mo ago
Visa & MasterCards actual take is way lower than that. The fees that merchants see on cards are mostly collected by the banks - "interchange".
112.
by danielmarkbruce 2mo ago
Twilio market cap is $35 billion. That's a decent amount of value.
113.
by danielmarkbruce 2mo ago
You'd be surprised how little volume of api calls payments companies get compared to advertising companies or consumer internet companies. Stripe aren't especially well placed to own this asset on a technical level. That doesn&#x2
114.
by danielmarkbruce 2mo ago
This is mostly wrong as far as motivation is concerned. Some people just by default figure stuff out with what they know. Others accumulate knowledge. If you go too far in either direction you are probably going to struggle, but it's j
115.
by danielmarkbruce 2mo ago
GLP-1s have been used for over 20 years. There likely is enough data to say something , even if it's not water tight.
116.
by danielmarkbruce 2mo ago
100% this. I do some work where frontier LLMs really are quite bad on a first pass... yet with what I consider a basically silly agent architecture which sort of amounts to "do this three ways, check, revise, choose the best, rethink,
117.
by danielmarkbruce 2mo ago
It does sound crazy. You don't need to do it. But it works remarkably well.
118.
by danielmarkbruce 2mo ago
Lol, have you heard of "moving the goalposts"? Could you possibly be more insincere?
119.
by danielmarkbruce 2mo ago
This is a regulatory issue. Various states have all kinds of stupid laws about stored value, escheatment, money transmission etc that kick in when you have "credits". It's quite stupid but the result of criminals doing all ma
120.
by danielmarkbruce 2mo ago
yes, it is the annoying part. I just use a wok. Since I'm only deep frying for 30 seconds and it's fully submerged in the oil, it's... not tooooo bad. But it's annoying to do and quite dangerous.

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