credit_guy

18 ms·

91.
by credit_guy 7mo ago
You can view it like that, but most people don't. At least the people involved manning those tankers don't. And why should them? It appears that the Iranian armed forces started acted quite autonomously, by design. They know that
92.
by credit_guy 7mo ago
If you compare the US and the UK regarding the alcoholic beverage servings, then you can reach two conclusions, depending whether you think drinking alcohol is good or bad. If you think it's bad, then the US is better, because the rest
93.
by credit_guy 7mo ago
What this type of analysis is missing is that it is extraordinarily hard to build the bomb. North Korea could get the bomb because they had qualms about letting hundreds of thousands or millions of people literally starve to death [1]. But
94.
by credit_guy 7mo ago
I know this is not related to the legal merits of the case being discussed, but who runs a red light? In my experience, this is an infarction that occurs very infrequently. Speeding or illegal parking happen all the time, but running a red
95.
by credit_guy 7mo ago
The moat is compute. In my case, I always use Opus 4.6 in my work, but quite often I get a 504 error, and that's quite annoying. I get errors like that with Gemini too. I can't estimate if I'd get a similar number of errors w
96.
by credit_guy 7mo ago
There are. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) maintains a database of advanced reactor designs, ARIS [1]. It lists 119 reactors. A lot of them are small modular reactors, and the IAEA has published a book with details about them
97.
by credit_guy 7mo ago
No. They have Bill Gates as a founder. Bill Gates understands that nuclear is a long game. > They’ll reverse IPO along the way and manipulate the stock enough to get insiders paid out while the carcass of a company trundles along. I&#x27
98.
by credit_guy 7mo ago
> Amodei is the type of person who thinks he can tell the US government what they can and can’t do. I don't think that's the case. Amodei is worried that AI is extraordinarily capable, and our current system of checks and balan
99.
by credit_guy 8mo ago
> each next model costs 10x the last Yes, but there's a chance that actually training is done more or less for free by companies like OpenAI. The reason being that they do a gigantic amount of inference for end users (for which they
100.
by credit_guy 8mo ago
This analysis does not account for side benefit of the oxygen. If you split water to get hydrogen, then for every kilogram of hydrogen you get, you also get 8 kg of oxygen. Liquid oxygen is not an expensive commodity, its market price is ab
101.
by credit_guy 8mo ago
I don't think this counts as distillation. Distillation is when you use a teacher model to train a student model, but crucially, you have access to the entire probability distribution of the generated tokens, not just to the tokens the
102.
by credit_guy 8mo ago
> dangerous It is actually less dangerous than other fuels, for the simple reason that it is extremely light and buoyant. A gasoline fire is bad, because the gasoline stays where it is until it fully burns. A hydrogen fire is less bad, b
103.
by credit_guy 8mo ago
Let's pursue your idea a bit further. Up to a certain ELO level, the combination between a human and a chess bot has a higher ELO than both the human and the bot. But at some point, when the bot has an ELO vastly superior to the human,
104.
by credit_guy 8mo ago
> COVID dropped US life expectancy by about 2 years. It was a temporary blip. The most recent life expectancy numbers, published last month by the CDC, show that the life expectancy in the US rebounded, and it is at a historical all time
105.
by credit_guy 8mo ago
> Iran has claimed this January to have tested a 10,000 km ICBM with Russia allowing it to fly towards Siberia. It didn’t happen. Suborbital flights don’t go unnoticed. Wikipedia has the list [1], there were 5 in January, and an Iranian
106.
by credit_guy 8mo ago
Yes, but that's the nature of the game, and they know it.
107.
by credit_guy 8mo ago
> If OpenAI is incapable of building anything that can't be easily copied by a third party They can build better models, but for that they need a lot of compute and that's where the billions go. These better models can't b
108.
by credit_guy 8mo ago
Because, fundamentally, their biggest competitor is Google. A company with a market cap north of 4 trillion. If OpenAI does not spend hundreds of billions of dollars on datacenters, people will migrate to Google, little by little, and OpenA
109.
by credit_guy 9mo ago
Yes, Sweden had a nuclear weapons program and they stopped short of building a bomb. But things are very different today. There are 2 main differences. Sweden has signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) and Sweden is now a member
110.
by credit_guy 9mo ago
This whole article severely understates the difficulty of making a bomb. There are two ways to make a bomb: either using weapons grade uranium (like the Hiroshima bomb) or weapons grade plutonium (like the Nagasaki bomb). The first requires
111.
by credit_guy 9mo ago
Not sure the choice of the word "bankruptcy" is meaningful. "Bankruptcy" is short for "bankruptcy protection", where an insolvent debtor tells a court they have no way of paying back all their current debts wit
112.
by credit_guy 9mo ago
> but these days for most people there’s little to no new maths. You are right. For most people there's little to no new maths. But not for all. There's still plenty of good quality math to be done in the exotics space. Howev
113.
by credit_guy 9mo ago
You are absolutely right. My 22% was a mistake, the correct number is indeed 36.5% lower volumetric energy density. But that strengthens my argument, doesn't it?
114.
by credit_guy 9mo ago
> who can be relied upon to run these things, who can be trusted to regulate them and the failure modes of accidents. I personally trust the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. I also trust the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, and the regu
115.
by credit_guy 9mo ago
Yes. Vistra is the largest power generator in the US [1]. Most of the deal that Meta announced is with Vistra, and the power will come from some existing facilities. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vistra_Corp .
116.
by credit_guy 9mo ago
There is a sampling bias. Earth-like planets are too small to retain hydrogen and helium, so even if the proportion of heavier elements in the initial gas cloud were 10 times lower, the planets would still be rich in heavy elements.
117.
by credit_guy 9mo ago
And if SpaceX was not there, who would the government turn to? Fun fact: the US is way ahead of China in space launches, but if you remove SpaceX, then China is way ahead of the US.
118.
by credit_guy 9mo ago
They have the right to know that, but why should they know the transaction price?
119.
by credit_guy 9mo ago
Where do you stand on encryption? Do you feel like the "I have nothing to hide" argument has any merit? If you think people have the right to privacy, why should real estate be an exception? I personally find the fact that real es
120.
by credit_guy 9mo ago
You are right. I checked the source, it is the graph on slide 14 of the Lazard presentation [1]. The graph is the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) in dollars per MWh. [1] https://www.lazard.com/media/5tlbhyla/lazard

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