bugzz

8 ms·

61.
by bugzz 7y ago
A huge factor here is time. 3 weeks ago I saw a bunch of people saying "Look, South Korea tested a lot of people, finding the majority of the mild cases, and thus only has a death rate of 0.5%". Since then, however, deaths/
62.
by bugzz 7y ago
Go check South Korea's numbers again. As their cases have resolved, death rate has steadily increased, and it's now at 1.33%. It will continue to rise. Same with Germany, it just takes time to die. South Korea had already found ma
63.
by bugzz 7y ago
That is true. But I think it shows the impossibility of a fatality rate half that of the flu. At least one small Italian town tested every resident, and had 3% positive rate. And more than 80% of cases are unresolved, so many more deaths
64.
by bugzz 7y ago
> it's possible that the early lockdown in Northern Italy actually increased the number of deaths So in China the lockdowns stopped the Virus from spreading, but in Italy it increased the spread? If the young are all at home giving
65.
by bugzz 7y ago
Can't you say that at least for Italy as a whole, this is killing 2x as many as the worst flu seasons? Italy has a population around ~60 million, law of large numbers makes it impossible to have error bars THAT big. You'd have t
66.
by bugzz 7y ago
I agree, I used 3 months, 1/4, worst year, etc. specifically to show that COVID-19 has to be at least that bad. I agree that it's likely far far worse.
67.
by bugzz 7y ago
Well given how widely people have carried his "0.05%" as lower bound, I'd imagine he'd have said something if he didn't really think it was a "reasonable estimate for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S.
68.
by bugzz 7y ago
Doesn't my analysis of Italy prove lower bound can't possibly be lower than 5x flu death rate, around 0.5%?
69.
by bugzz 7y ago
0.05% is just ridiculous. That's half the death rate of the flu, so the only way he can justify a number like that is if he believes we are missing the VAST majority of all cases (due to them being mild) and only seeing the severe one
70.
by bugzz 7y ago
Why are flu tests so much slower and more expensive?
71.
by bugzz 7y ago
I've also been thinking about this. From what I can tell, a big part of it is the most of South Korea's cases so far were skewed young and female (both demographics less likely to die). Stats for ages in SK cases here: https:&#x2
72.
by bugzz 7y ago
As others have said, please go to a hospital. You are 34, so will probably recover fine without medical help, but there have been many cases in their 30s that have taken a sharp downturn for the worse and needed oxygen support, etc. For ex
73.
by bugzz 7y ago
Looking at Korea's numbers, they are reporting 7478 cases, with 53 deaths. But they are also reporting only 133 recoveries so far. So looking at Korea's death rate so far is in no way, shape, or form accurate, as more than 97% of
74.
by bugzz 7y ago
> Only 1% of cases have been registered outside China, in 24 countries (including Spain), with transmission chains (secondary cases from a first imported case) very short so far. It seems completely unsurprising to me that we aren't