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Go check South Korea's numbers again. As their cases have resolved, death rate has steadily increased, and it's now at 1.33%. It will continue to rise. Same wit
by bugzz 7y ago
Go check South Korea's numbers again. As their cases have resolved, death rate has steadily increased, and it's now at 1.33%. It will continue to rise. Same with Germany, it just takes time to die. South Korea had already found majority of their current cases 2-3 weeks ago, but deaths are only now picking up.
Edit: now 1.37%, up again since I checked a couple hours ago.
The same rise in death rate was observed way back when SARS happened. At first people estimated death rate at 2-3%, and it was continually revised upwards as cases resolved.
- nkohari 7y agoThe opposite happened with H1N1 (swine flu) in 2009, though. The CFR was estimated to be significantly higher during the pandemic but afterwards was estimated at 0.02% with 60M American cases. [0] Policymakers should use conservative estimates to be careful, but we still just don't know how deadly COVID-19 is. [0] https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/ese.14.33.19309-en https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/ese.14.33.1...
- jtbayly 7y agoThat's a difference between IFR and CFR.
- marknutter 7y agoUnless they have a test that determines whether fully recovered people had it at some point, they are never going to get an accurate CFR.