bowaggoner

5 ms·

1.
by bowaggoner 5y ago
I enjoyed the comment. You might like my short story along the same lines from a few years ago: https://bowaggoner.com/writeups/robust.html
2.
by bowaggoner 5y ago
This project is more on the academic side -- disclaimer, I was involved in it, but it's led by Justin Harris at Microsoft Research: "Sharing Updatable Models on Blockchain" https://github.com/microsoft/0x
3.
by bowaggoner 6y ago
I respect that perspective, but did you know that Signal uses a private protocol so that your contacts are never sent to their servers? https://signal.org/blog/private-contact-discovery/
4.
by bowaggoner 6y ago
That's one big problem for sure. Another is when the information is costly to gather, and there is a Schelling point for people without the information. For example, we all get in the habit of saying "10 degrees" whenever any
5.
by bowaggoner 6y ago
Prediction markets also exist for non-binary events, whether a finite set of outcomes, countably infinite, continuous, or beyond. Instead, the problem is they still require an oracle for the actual event outcome. That is, everyone is bettin
6.
by bowaggoner 6y ago
Should have asked for a dot "somewhere" on the page.
7.
by bowaggoner 6y ago
Oops, thanks!
8.
by bowaggoner 6y ago
Thanks, added!
9.
by bowaggoner 6y ago
Hi all, seems like a slow news day so thought you might enjoy this little page. Comments, suggestions, discussion, criticism welcome!
10.
Show HN: NotAn.app(notan.app)
14 points by bowaggoner 6y ago|8 comments
11.
by bowaggoner 6y ago
Great point! We ultimately felt (and this is above my paygrade) that it was outside the scope of what we were asked to explore/recommend. So we avoided suggesting taxes that drastically change corporate incentives and behavior around p
12.
by bowaggoner 6y ago
Thanks for the reply - interesting concern. By analogy, I don't think putting taxes on cigarettes means the state will try to get more people to smoke. I also think it depends on how the money is allocated. Your concern would be strong
13.
by bowaggoner 6y ago
Very nice article! Last year I was part of a working group on a data dividend proposal for the state of California, which you can read about at https://www.datadividends.org/ . Our conclusions led us much closer to the spir
14.
by bowaggoner 7y ago
Hi all, we are a couple CS researchers and made this game purely for people to have fun. It's designed to be accessible to anyone who has never heard of a prediction market. In fact, I would love to hear if you think this is a good pre
15.
Show HN: Play-money prediction market for Game of Thrones(gotpredictions.org)
1 points by bowaggoner 7y ago|1 comments
16.
by bowaggoner 7y ago
(Submitter) Hi all, my friend and I are researchers in game theory and computer science. We wanted to make a site where people could have fun predicting Game of Thrones outcomes, without needing to know at first what a prediction market is.
17.
Show HN: Game of Thrones prediction game based on play-money prediction markets(gotpredictions.org)
2 points by bowaggoner 7y ago|1 comments
18.
by bowaggoner 9y ago
Unfortunately no video, sorry. Glad you find it interesting!
19.
by bowaggoner 9y ago
You're right and we're on the same page about the solution. The reasoning behind my comment of "interesting" is that formula you gave is not well-defined for p=infinity, although we can define it as the limit of that exp
20.
by bowaggoner 9y ago
Unfortunately MathJax is a bit large and nontrivial to host yourself. And it recently switched to being hosted on cloudfare instead of mathjax.org. I struggled with this choice myself and so far, decided to do the same as the author with a
21.
by bowaggoner 9y ago
Hmm, that example is really interesting. I think you're right once we formalize L_infinity, because the goal will be to minimize the maximum possible distance. But the other scores can be phrased as penalties and minimizing expected pe
22.
by bowaggoner 9y ago
There is a much wider generalization here which is studied under the name of "property elicitation" in computer science, machine learning, and statistics. The generic question is: Given a loss function, what "property" o
23.
by bowaggoner 9y ago
Both terms are fluid. Most theoretical computer science research is essentially mathematics, at a high enough level. Some wouldn't necessarily call themselves mathematicians unless their graduate training was in a math department; some
24.
by bowaggoner 9y ago
CS as practiced today contains elements of math, engineering, and the sciences (though rarely at the same time). I have a bit on this you might find interesting: http://bowaggoner.com/whatiscomputerscience.html#medium
25.
by bowaggoner 9y ago
Thanks - I took out a bunch of extraneous transition slides (except in one place where I think it's helpful to see).
26.
by bowaggoner 9y ago
I recently was researching bitcoin, blockchain, etc, and I found it surprisingly difficult to find good but relatively short resources! I synthesized what I found into some slides that you might find helpful[1]. Apologies if this seems like