boshalfoshal

5 ms·

31.
by boshalfoshal 6mo ago
I think "taste" is definitely an overused meme at this point, its like tech twitter discovered this word in 2024 and never stopped using it (same with "agency", "high leverage", etc). Having read the article, I
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by boshalfoshal 7mo ago
Well considering basically the entire market was down these past few days, Google included, its unlikely attributable to this paper alone. Its most likely correlated with general war/trade route restrictions/potential recession f
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by boshalfoshal 7mo ago
Answer: Any job where the majority (or all) of your work can be done strictly by using a computer, and for tasks that have easily verifiable and objective outcomes. And from an economic perspective, jobs that have the highest cost (i.e, hig
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by boshalfoshal 7mo ago
yeah and 2s has not been doing too hot for a few years now. Jane street I buy - they tend to recruit a lot of CMU students. But definitely less than < 15 of the new grads they hire each year are from CMU. They maybe hire on the order of
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by boshalfoshal 7mo ago
It will probably be a lot worse since white collar workers (especially the ones that AI is targeting, like banking, software, etc since they are super high margin jobs to automate) traditionally make and spend more than the average worker.
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by boshalfoshal 7mo ago
I agree. I think most companies would be better off being 100% AI driven since synchronization problems for agents (or whatever the fad will be) is likely much lower than human social synchronization, and has more rich information transfer
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by boshalfoshal 7mo ago
> ... Just that it doesn’t replace the social, human, and relationship based aspects of work, whether this is trust, or just being interested in what someone else says. Yeah I also don't buy this. Most white collar work _seemingly_
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by boshalfoshal 9mo ago
two things: 1. ai being able to code well seems like it would also get pretty close/good at doing basically everything else you described. If coding is a game of reasoning, if you can solve that, you have effectively solved reasoning a
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by boshalfoshal 1y ago
Yes, it will replace human thinking. Thats quite literally the explicit goal of every AI company. Historically every technological recolution serves to replace some facet of human labor (usually with the incentive of squeezing profits as te
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by boshalfoshal 1y ago
Clickbait title and article. There was a large reorg of genai/msl and several other teams, so things have been shuffled around and they likely don't want to hire into the org while this is finalizing. A freeze like this is common
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by boshalfoshal 1y ago
Well this is blatantly false, she linked the career page and I know of people that received offers recently. They have very strong talent from Meta's FAIR/Pytorch teams as well as a lot of strong people from OAI.
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by boshalfoshal 1y ago
I think Teslas valuation is a bit disconnected from fundamentals too, but saying "collapsing" revenue is a bit dramatic.
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by boshalfoshal 1y ago
Keep in mind - this is not reaffirming HN's anti-AGI/extremely long timeline beliefs. The article explicitly states that he thinks we will have an AI system that "Will be able to do your taxes" by 2028, and a system that
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by boshalfoshal 1y ago
The first line is just some cope people use to tell themselves they are different. Someone using AI won't "take" your job, they'll just get more done than you and when the company inevitably fires more people because AI
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by boshalfoshal 1y ago
Imo this is a misunderstanding of what AI companies want AI tools to be and where the industry is heading in the near future. The endgame for many companies is SWE automation, not augmentation. To expand - 1. Models "reason" and c
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by boshalfoshal 1y ago
Pesimistically, you are right, there will be no new jobs. The entire goal of these companies is to monopolize near 0 marginal cost labor. Another way to read this is that humans are unnecessary for economic progress anymore. All that I hope
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by boshalfoshal 1y ago
And as it stands, AI is nowhere close to (1) and (2), but is pretty close to making all of (3) redundant. This could be because most work is actually frivilous (very possible), but its also easy for them to sell those since ostensibly (1) a
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by boshalfoshal 1y ago
You are thinking about "hard" and "easy" in the wrong frame of mind. What Tesla does is not "easy" either. Their moat is manufacturing and the R&D they've spent on codesigning their HW and SW stack, an
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by boshalfoshal 1y ago
My take is less tinfoil-hatty than this. I simply think that the majority of people in AI today are scifi nerds who want to live out these fantisies and want to be part of something much larger than they are. Theres also the obvious incenti
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by boshalfoshal 1y ago
Imo it probably (unfortunately) doesn't matter if many people are unemployed from an economic perspective. Human demand for things is basically unlimited, and capital will ostensibly be concentrated within the upper class who reaped al
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by boshalfoshal 1y ago
Higher chance of AGI/most SWEs being out of a job for an extended period of time than the bubble popping imo.
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by boshalfoshal 1y ago
Yes, and you will never need to.
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by boshalfoshal 1y ago
AI will indeed kill the leetcode interview - because once it replaces human SWEs you don't really need to give leetcode-style brainteasers to any human anymore.
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by boshalfoshal 1y ago
The way I think about it, DNA is just a metaprogram. The "programs" this metaprogram create (brain, gut, other organs, etc). can be far more information dense and complex than the actual metaprogram that initially created them. Th
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by boshalfoshal 1y ago
This may be true, but paradoxically, the data might be slightly skewed since Tesla's driver monitoring system (which is only active during autopilot) actively rewards drivers who are paying attention. So is the accident rate lower beca
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by boshalfoshal 2y ago
I don't necessarily think you're wrong, and in general I do agree with you to an extent that this seems like self-centeted Computer Scientist/SWE hubris to think that automating programming is ~AGI. HOWEVER there is a case to
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by boshalfoshal 2y ago
Would be surprised if it was not a union of the above schools and {GTech, UT, UCLA, UIUC}.
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by boshalfoshal 2y ago
No, I think v13 on HW4 is best in class, apart from the obvious (non-consumer operations) like Waymo. But I think automomy is not enough to draw people to a new vehicle. Tesla has a branding/advertising issue with v13 because people co
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by boshalfoshal 2y ago
The consumer market doesnt matter much here, imo. I think most companies know b2b is the most lucrative segment for AI because it reduces one of their top costs - people. Companies selling AI are basically just selling the ultimate automati
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by boshalfoshal 2y ago
The markets that are basically derivatives of financial products (qqq/spy closing price, oil, rates, etc) have pretty decently sized volume but are likely pretty efficiently priced and most likely have institutions market making on the

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