bo1024

16 ms·

211.
by bo1024 3y ago
Another import point of discussion: > What you're asking for, "how wrong do you think the model is," is a reasonable thing to ask for, but different and much harder to quantify. This definitely seems to me to be what the o
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by bo1024 3y ago
Ah, that makes sense. The word expectation was really throwing me off, along with the fact that, in the kind of forecasting setting of this post, the mean and confidence interval (used in the correct sense) are not meaningful, while the qua
213.
by bo1024 3y ago
Thanks for explaining how it works - I don't use R (I assume this is R). This does not seem like a good way to produce "error bars" around a forecast like the one in this case study. It seems more like a note about how much v
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by bo1024 3y ago
No, predictive interval is more precise, since we are dealing with predicting an observation rather than forming a belief about a parameter.
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by bo1024 3y ago
Yes, of course. I don't see that as very related to my point. For example, consider how 538 or The Economist predict elections. They might claim they'll use squared error or log score, but when it comes down to a big mistake, they
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by bo1024 3y ago
To me, this comes back to the question of skin in the game. If you have skin in the game, then you produce the best uncertainty estimates you can (by any means). If you don't, you just sit back and say "well these are the error ba
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by bo1024 3y ago
> is it, loosely speaking, an expectation about a mean/true value or about the distribution of unobserved values If you don't mind typing it out, what do you mean formally here?
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by bo1024 3y ago
I don't see how standard error applies here. You are only going to get one data point, e.g. "violent crime rate in 2023". What I mean is a prediction, not only of what you think the number is, but also of how wrong you think
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by bo1024 3y ago
Yes, that term captures what I'm talking about.
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by bo1024 3y ago
Strongly agree, and I am sure the resemblance is conscious. Unfortunately, most people don't know or care about software freedom. So for a general audience, Schneier has to make these points from scratch. But yeah, it would be nice if
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by bo1024 3y ago
Ok, the 'reverse' of a confidence interval then -- I haven't seen a term for the object I described other than misuse of CI in the way I did. ("Double quantile"?)
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by bo1024 3y ago
"To summarize the summary of the summary: people are a problem." -Douglas Adams. Insularity is both the strength and weakness of academia. Unfortunately, I feel we are sliding toward the worst of both worlds: an administrative &qu
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by bo1024 3y ago
Anybody who has to work with University IT can also :)
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by bo1024 3y ago
Two things I think are interesting here, one discussed by the author and one not. (1) As mentioned at the bottom, forecasting usually should lead to decisionmaking, and when it gets disconnected, it can be unclear what the value is. It soun
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by bo1024 3y ago
And wheelbase / swaying, right?
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by bo1024 3y ago
Yeah - not to mention that nowadays most will be comparing the price to other electric vehicles.
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by bo1024 3y ago
Local and state funding of education is much higher than federal funding.
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by bo1024 3y ago
Confirming that updates are not automatic, and can be ignored indefinitely. For now.
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by bo1024 3y ago
Rivian thinks of itself as a software company. The first thing you sign when you go to buy a vehicle is a software copyright notice IIRC. The first thing in the owner's manual is a notice that the software copyrights and intellectual p
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by bo1024 3y ago
Right, which is why we have publicly funded education systems - in much of the world, and to various extents.
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by bo1024 3y ago
"In higher education, students are not the customer, they are the product. Society is the customer." Not 100% true, but worth thinking about.
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by bo1024 3y ago
Tuition has skyrocketed, public funding has decreased (if not "plummeted"). e.g. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/education/most-americans-dont-r...
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by bo1024 3y ago
"Most Americans don’t realize state funding for higher ed fell by billions" https://www.pbs.org/newshour/education/most-americans-dont-r...
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by bo1024 3y ago
You seem to be basing the value of education solely on employability, but that misses a huge amount of the value of a liberal arts education -- not just to the individual, but even more so to society at large.
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by bo1024 3y ago
You've been out of university 20 years. Is it possible your impression of today's university experience is biased by "the media", i.e. whatever makes for the most clickbait headlines?
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by bo1024 3y ago
Thanks, this is really helpful!
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by bo1024 3y ago
Thank you!
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by bo1024 3y ago
Anyone know where to get good details? Specifically: do they know where the money went? If not, how did they prove intent (I assume they proved intent)? Edit: another thing I'm wondering is about jurisdiction, since most of this occurr
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by bo1024 3y ago
Or, "interest rates went up". Can we tell that this is not 90% of the "problem" (if there is indeed any problem)?
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by bo1024 3y ago
I guess a lot of it is the commitment to 4 doors, 2 full rows of seating. For a long time I didn't understand why pickups were so popular (didn't pay attention to cars at all), being so impractical for moving people -- until I rea

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