blueblisters

6 ms·

31.
by blueblisters 7mo ago
It might be that this admin does not have the capacity to reason about second or third order effects. But given that what would typically be red lines for previous administrations have been brazenly crossed without consequences, why would t
32.
by blueblisters 7mo ago
In a broader context, both labs are engaging in "safety theater". Neither know how to solve the alignment problem while market pressures are making them race towards capabilities (long horizon, continual learning) that will have d
33.
by blueblisters 7mo ago
Wow. Surprising to see open hostilities between the leaders of the big ai labs. The differences appear to not just be competitive but also ideological. Edit: Also openly calling OpenAI employees "gullible" and "twitter morons
34.
by blueblisters 8mo ago
I think their consumer plans are gross margin positive but OpenAI has ~50M paying subscribers driving >$10B in revenue. Realistically, you need at least ~1M subscribers to cancel to make this painful. But I suspect this will get drowned
35.
by blueblisters 8mo ago
OpenAI has ~50M paying subscribers driving >$10B in revenue. You would probably need at least ~1M subscribers to cancel to make this painful. Probably needs more attention outside of tech circles for that to happen but I suspect this wil
36.
by blueblisters 8mo ago
My knee-jerk reaction to this was looks like an opportunistic maneuver that Sam is known for and I'm considering canceling my subscriptions and business with OpenAI But what's the most charitable / objective interpretation of
37.
by blueblisters 8mo ago
I know most people feel 5.2 is a better coding model but Opus has come in handy several times when 5.2 was stuck, especially for more "weird" tasks like debugging a VIO algorithm. 5.2 (and presumably 5.3) is really smart though an
38.
by blueblisters 8mo ago
Yeah same. Even though I find Opus-es to be more well-rounded (and more useful) for certain tasks, I instinctively reach for ChatGPT / codex to avoid burning up my usage limits for "trivial" work.
39.
by blueblisters 10mo ago
I guess I place a premium on safety over land use and congestion. I also suspect any future congestion and land-use problems will get better after an initial dip. Urban living becomes more desirable as city parking lots disappear. If roads
40.
by blueblisters 10mo ago
Dreamer4 ( https://danijar.com/project/dreamer4/ ) is a promising direction (by a frontier lab)
41.
by blueblisters 10mo ago
Surreal. Almost like an optimistic science fiction film. After all, self driving cars have some of the highest positive to negative externality ratio of any modern technology
42.
by blueblisters 10mo ago
Amanda Askell, Sholto Douglas have somewhat of a fan following on twitter
43.
by blueblisters 10mo ago
ChatGPT seems like a huge distraction for OpenAI if their goal is transformative AI IMO: the largest value creation from AGI won’t come from building a better shopping or travel assistant. The real pot of gold is in workflow / labor au
44.
by blueblisters 11mo ago
The problem is paternalism and assuming the user is too dumb to take control their privacy preferences. The compliance of the cookie banner regulation has measurable negative externalities - one estimate suggests a EUR 14B/year product
45.
by blueblisters 11mo ago
They do have unreleased Olympiad Gold-winning models that are definitely better than GPT5. TBD if that performance generalizes to other real world tasks.
46.
by blueblisters 11mo ago
"Exoskeleton" was inspired by the more recent Dex-Op paper ( https://dex-op.github.io/ ) Calling UMI an "exoskeleton" might be a stretch but the principle is the same - humans use a kinematically matched i
47.
by blueblisters 11mo ago
The exoskeletons are instrumented to match the kinematics and sensor suite of the actual robot gripper. You can trivially train a model on human collected gripper data and replay it on the robot.
48.
by blueblisters 11mo ago
Kinda genius to scale exoskeleton data collection with UMI grippers when most labs are chasing "general" VLMs / VLAs by training on human demonstration videos. Imo the latter will be very useful for semantic planning and reas
49.
by blueblisters 11mo ago
There is probably an equivalent of Amdahl's law for GDP - overall productivity will be bottlenecked by the least productive sectors. Until AI becomes physically embodied, that would mean all high-mix, low-volume physical labor is likel
50.
by blueblisters 1y ago
Ben’s original take about 1% of users being creators might end up being right eventually Consider the Studio Ghibli phenomenon. It was fun to create and share photos of your loved ones in Ghibli aesthetics until that novelty wore off Video
51.
by blueblisters 1y ago
Math comparing new datacenter capacity to electric cars - Projections estimate anywhere between 10GW to 30GW of US datacenter buildup over the next few years 1GW of continuous power can support uniform draw from ~2.6M Tesla Model 3s assumin
52.
by blueblisters 1y ago
> consumers paying for electricity used by server farms wait what? consumers are literally paying for server farms? this isn't a supply-demand gap?
53.
by blueblisters 1y ago
Also the pretrained LLM (the one trained to predict next token of raw text) is not the one that most people use A lot of clever LLM post training seems to steer the model towards becoming excellent improv artists which can lead to “surprise
54.
by blueblisters 1y ago
The code isn’t the valuable part. They know all the most common workflows and failure modes, allowing them to create better environments for training agentic models
55.
by blueblisters 1y ago
> we should always promote low switching costs between model providers (by supporting independent companies), keeping incentives toward improving the models not ui/data/network lock-in You’re underestimating the dollars at play
56.
by blueblisters 1y ago
Uh that doesn't look better. it has more texture but the composition is bad/incomplete
57.
by blueblisters 1y ago
Possibly. Seems like a mix of conspiracy-theory induced paranoia and right-wing influencers pushing a coordinated narrative. Ironically, aerosol injection will probably benefit fossil fuel companies, with less pressure to meet aggressive em
58.
by blueblisters 1y ago
the uproar over minor, localized cloud-seeding (which had nothing to do with the Texas floods) is probably a death knell for aerosol injection. we are going to see countries going to war over unilateral solar radiation management efforts
59.
by blueblisters 1y ago
we are nowhere close to the levels of CO2 concentration that would affect cognitive performance. skimming through a couple of studies, measurable impact starts around 1000 ppm. with current policy intervention, we will likely reach 550ppm b
60.
by blueblisters 1y ago
If they can turn ChatGPT into a free cash flow machine, they will be in a much more comfortable position. They have the lever to do so (ads) but haven't shown much interest there yet. I can't imagine how they will compete if the

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