au_gambler

4 ms·

1. 1.▲
   by au_gambler 9y ago

   There are very high regulatory costs if you're going to run a book/tote and pay out people's bets. But yes, your data could be worth more than your bookmaking margins. If it's worth buying, it's worth using yourself
2. 2.▲
   by au_gambler 9y ago

   There needs to be some degree of risk aversion given the uncertainties in estimating your edge. I am thinking more along the lines of a CRRA utility function - something a little less aggressive than kelly.
3. 3.▲
   by au_gambler 9y ago

   My reasoning is that the 'invisible hand' of many less informed bettors leads to market efficiency in aggregate, particularly in highly liquid markets. Greater liquidity in parimutuel markets makes for odds that are less of a movi
4. 4.▲
   by au_gambler 9y ago

   A couple of suggestions to improve on this method. The authors' regression left an intercept or 'adjustment term' of 3.4% - 5.7%. For a perfect bookmaker, this intercept term would be equal to the overround. The number calcul
5. 5.▲
   by au_gambler 9y ago

   In paramutuel betting the prices are not fixed, so you cannot leverage differences between the odds on offer and your estimate of the prospect's chances. The final odds you receive are equal to the total stakes placed on that prospect
6. 6.▲
   by au_gambler 9y ago

   > A strategy intended to beat the bookmakers at predicting the outcome of sports games requires a more accurate model than the ones bookmakers have developed over many years of data collection and analysis. I disagree with this assumptio