astrophysician

17 ms·

91.
by astrophysician 7y ago
No reliable source at all, saw various people refer to larger numbers and thought that would be conservative. If the false positive rate is actually way lower, then this whole point is totally wrong and I would be happy to just delete this
92.
by astrophysician 7y ago
Yea I agree that it’s still useful like you say as just a way to screen for “higher risk” individuals and have them isolate, but still food for thought.
93.
by astrophysician 7y ago
Just FYI, if you don’t have symptoms or direct contact with someone with COVID (basically if you don’t have a high probability of having COVID before you have the test) a positive test still probably means you don’t have COVID: Sample num
94.
by astrophysician 7y ago
Right, so it's a variable, but if we can independently nail down a false negative/positive rate, then we could try to infer the true rate of infection, but problem is (assuming US numbers): * assume false positive rate of 10%, ass
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by astrophysician 7y ago
I mean, I don't know the OP's intention here but I think they're probably right, all of these actions will have an economic impact. It's not a statement about whether or not we should or shouldn't do something, I th
96.
by astrophysician 7y ago
What is the true/false negative/positive rate for these tests? I can't find that online and I have tried. If FPR is 10% and we test 100,000,000 people in the US but only 100,000 have the disease right now, then assuming a TPR
97.
by astrophysician 7y ago
NDT came to Thunch several times, but unfortunately not while I was there -- we exchanged e-mails (I was responsible for booking the Thunch guests) and he was excited to come, made tentative plans, but it ended up not working out. The guy i
98.
by astrophysician 7y ago
Thanks for sharing — yea completely agree, it’s always so much fun to be around people like Dyson. There’s more like him at Princeton (and everywhere else, I was at university if Illinois for undergrad and the story is the same there), they
99.
by astrophysician 7y ago
About 4 years ago, I was a grad student in astrophysics at Princeton. Dyson worked at the Institute for Advanced Study which, while not officially part of the university was essentially an extension of the various departments (shared coll
100.
by astrophysician 7y ago
Replying since it's been too long to edit: Now that I've taken some time to actually READ the article referenced in this post, I have a couple more things to say; basically: I agree with virtually everything that they're sayi
101.
by astrophysician 7y ago
That’s awesome, and maybe I misunderstand his argument (very possible, in fact my main reason for posting this comment). Am I not understanding the arguments being made here? I have not been following these developments regarding using Baye
102.
by astrophysician 7y ago
> Bayesian statistics doesn’t give a satisfying answer/method for choosing priors I absolutely agree with you. Priors are the (very difficult) job of the practitioner. > choosing priors is a part of statistics Ah so I think I agr
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by astrophysician 7y ago
Every time I see an article like this, I eagerly read it hoping to find a cogent and coherent criticism of Bayesian stats, and it always ends up being a straw man or a very fair critique of somebody not correctly applying or interpreting an
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by astrophysician 7y ago
Thank you!!! Yes! VisIt is what I was trying to remember. I don’t know VisIt, only that it exists and numerical people (at least in Astro) use it.
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by astrophysician 7y ago
https://yt-project.org/ -- yt for python was used by a few of my old colleagues for visualizing astrophysical simulations. There is yet another program that I've since forgotten but will try to come back here and comme
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by astrophysician 7y ago
Not a bad idea but only if the tracks are independent. Was reading something saying that these tracks aren’t different random realizations of the same simulation (in which case what you’re saying is a good way to estimate the posterior of t
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by astrophysician 7y ago
> Do you expect a trading strategy that harms a market to be reliably profitable without risking fines, banning, or imprisonment? Non-trader here, what do you mean by a particular trading strategy "harm[ing] a market," how woul
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by astrophysician 7y ago
Ah great blog theme! I’ll definitely peruse...I just defended last November (variable stars) and now I miss it. Hope life outside academia is going well for you. Best of luck!
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by astrophysician 7y ago
YES! Really great explanation! Have you considered writing for astrobites or any Astro blog for that matter?
110.
by astrophysician 7y ago
Monte Carlo can be used to simulate any stochastic part of a process, not just inputs.
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by astrophysician 7y ago
Is there a piece of software that doesn’t require even occasional bug fixes or updates in order for it to run reliably on even a single operating system/browser?
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by astrophysician 7y ago
Cool! Kudos! Also don’t feel too discouraged if it takes you awhile, I’ve been trying to learn Bayesian related things for years now, and there are many aspects with significant learning curves (speaking for myself, maybe you won’t have so
113.
by astrophysician 7y ago
Some others have commented that this isn’t “required” but I can tell you that solid understanding of Bayesian statistics makes everything make way more sense and gives you a great basis for building more understanding of any ML algorithm. I