aorobin

4 ms·

1. 1.▲
   Evidence that METR may be underestimating LLM time horizons(lesswrong.com)

   1 points by aorobin 8mo ago|0 comments
2. 2.▲
   by aorobin 1y ago

   >"Demis Hassabis' very recent estimate was for 50% chance of AGI by 2030 (i.e. still 15 years out)." 2030 is only 5 years out
3. 3.▲
   by aorobin 1y ago

   Yeah, just last month Altman said gpt-5 is coming in a few months, and betting/prediction sites are expecting it this year, probably in the summer.
4. 4.▲
   by aorobin 1y ago

   Seems likely that they are waiting to release o4 full results until the gpt-5 release later this year, presumably because gpt-5 is bundled with a roughly o4 level reasoning capability, and they want gpt-5 to feel like a significant release.
5. 5.▲
   Google Is Driving a Blurry Line with Waze Carpool Pilot(time.com)

   3 points by aorobin 10y ago|0 comments