amurale

3 ms·

1. 1.▲
   by amurale 6y ago

   I take the IFR (infection fatality rate) for age < 65, and multiply by 10 to get a worst case of IFR+long term harm. Note that we're talking about severe long term harm - such as autoimmune disease etc. Not "it took me 3 months
2. 2.▲
   by amurale 6y ago

   You're correct about long term harm, I lumped them together. A better formula would be: P(covid death or long term harm) < 0.05% vs. P(vaccine long term harm) = ? since my estimate is they're about the same order of
3. 3.▲
   by amurale 6y ago

   Let's see... it's a calculus of death vs potential long term adverse effect: P(death) < 0.05% for the vast majority of the population (Age < 65) vs P(unknown) long term harm in life quality, my wild estimate: P(0.1%). It&#x2
4. 4.▲
   by amurale 6y ago

   > No one developed severe Covid-19 > No one developed severe adverse effects (yet) There is a reason vaccine trials normally take several years. I'll wait until we're a few years into phase IV trials, thankyouverym
5. 5.▲
   by amurale 6y ago

   Something like that. Evolution = natural variation + natural selection. In any given population there is natural variation: fastest moth, hairiest moth, whitest moth, etc. After evolutionary pressure is applied, the other moths are preferen