akrolsmir

8 ms·

31.
by akrolsmir 5y ago
I definitely understand this frame of mind. On the face of it, it seems quite absurd that anyone can do anything, e.g. insider trade, or use sock puppet accounts to manipulate information. In practice, we've seen it work okay so far! O
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by akrolsmir 5y ago
They have a lot in common! Kalshi and Manifold Markets both offer prediction markets: places where you can come bet on future outcomes. Kalshi accepts real USD, and all questions are listed and resolved by the Kalshi team; Manifold works wi
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by akrolsmir 5y ago
Yup, this is the idea behind blockchain oracles. At the end of the day, you're still making a judgement call behind who you want to trust to represent "truth" e.g. when deciding that Google sports is more trustworthy than ESP
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by akrolsmir 5y ago
Yup, you can join our Substack to hear about updates ( https://manifoldmarkets.substack.com/ ), or come chat with us on Discord ( https://discord.com/invite/eHQBNBqXuh ) PredictionBook was definitely one o
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by akrolsmir 5y ago
Yeah, oracles are a common solution to the question of "how should the prediction market get resolved". We think there are some usability problems with oracles in practice, which is why most prediction markets (e.g. PredictIt, Kal
36.
by akrolsmir 5y ago
Would love to hear about your interest in self-hosting! We've consider supporting that use case for e.g. software teams who want to set up markets on sensitive data like revenue forecasts or user growth numbers. If you'd like to c
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by akrolsmir 5y ago
That's good to hear! Harsimony floated the idea in this post https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/d43f6HCWawNSazZqb/... , and I think it's quite an interesting idea, especially because regulators ma
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by akrolsmir 5y ago
That's correct, we were fortunate enough to win an ACX Grant ( https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/acx-grants-results )!
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by akrolsmir 5y ago
Haha perhaps! Here's an SMBC comic on a (slightly NSFW) spin: https://www.smbc-comics.com/?id=2418
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by akrolsmir 5y ago
Thanks for the data point. Happy to hear that ACX is teaching people about prediction markets! We'll definitely look to supporting other auth methods; and until then, you don't need to sign in to view any of our hundreds of market
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by akrolsmir 5y ago
Glad you enjoy our site! To be frank, we do plan on monetizing by taking a percent of profits (right now, we're modeling a 1% fee on trading profits, much lower than traditional betting sites). We do think it's important to set up
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by akrolsmir 5y ago
Awesome; let us know what you think! We're always interested in hearing from new users, especially if there's anything that is confusing that we can fix.
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by akrolsmir 5y ago
I hadn't, but thanks for sharing! We've definitely gotten inspiration from other sources such as Robin Hanson's Age of Em and Eliezer Yudkowsky's Three Worlds Collide ( https://www.lesswrong.com/posts&#x2F
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by akrolsmir 5y ago
Great question! Right now, Manifold Dollars (M$) is just internet currency. The reasons for doing this were: - Much faster for testing out new market systems - Lower barrier to entry for new users signing up - Less regulatory risk for every
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Show HN: Using a prediction market to play Wordle(manifold.markets)
2 points by akrolsmir 5y ago|0 comments
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by akrolsmir 5y ago
Thanks for the feedback! A Google account makes the sign in flow a little bit simpler, and lets us to find a reasonable avatar to attach to each user. But Twitter or email auth are things we're interested in supporting (just want to ba
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Show HN: Create your own prediction market in two minutes(manifold.markets)
84 points by akrolsmir 5y ago|72 comments
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by akrolsmir 6y ago
I've been building a list of fun board games to play online at https://boredgames.gg ! One of the games I built as well, https://oneword.games , is very well suited to work events; it's a casual, cooperative
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by akrolsmir 6y ago
I'm seeing a lot of comments that say things like "so what should I do instead?" The article doesn't specify, but the forum it's posted on (effectivealtruism.org) has a lot to say about this topic. One simple recomm
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by akrolsmir 6y ago
Ah, if you're aggregating links, I've seen some pretty comprehensive Google sheets listing the different online board games to play in quarantine. Here's one: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1
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In Favor of the NSA(slatestarcodex.com)
1 points by akrolsmir 10y ago|0 comments
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G Suite: intelligent tools designed for teams(googleforwork.blogspot.com)
154 points by akrolsmir 10y ago|93 comments
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Google and Box Announce Partnership(googleforwork.blogspot.com)
130 points by akrolsmir 10y ago|61 comments
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by akrolsmir 10y ago
As a former TA at Berkeley (where Gradescope was founded), I can't stress enough how integral Gradescope was to our exam process. It streamlines the process of scanning exams, allows us to grade them online, and then to easily respond
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by akrolsmir 10y ago
Author here! I wrote this after going through some dozens of tech interviews in college, for both internships and full time positions. I'd love to hear any interview tips or feedback you have!
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A Non-Technical Guide to the Technical Interview(flow.moe)
2 points by akrolsmir 10y ago|1 comments
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In a era of diminishing state support, what makes Berkeley a public institution?(projects.dailycal.org)
5 points by akrolsmir 11y ago|0 comments
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by akrolsmir 11y ago
Something else that blew my mind: Jupyter was named after JUlia, PYthon, and R.
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by akrolsmir 11y ago
For sure, this assumes that false positive rate = false negative rate = 1%, but it suffices to illustrate how a highly accurate test can produce misleading results. A solution would be repeated retesting, as the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th conse
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by akrolsmir 11y ago
About 0.01%, or 1 in 10,000. Consider a population of 100M people, of which 100 would have the illness. Of them, 99% = 99 would test positive and 1% = 1 would test negative. For the other 99,999,900 healthy people, 99% = 98,999,901 would te

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