ajafari1

5 ms·

1.
by ajafari1 4y ago
Will Tesla, Waymo, Cruise, or some other company be first to mass commercialize robs-taxis? What are your thoughts?
2.
by ajafari1 4y ago
Many people think the company with the best AI will win the self-driving race. However, AI is only one of many competencies needed for success. Winning is about taking a holistic approach through vertical integration and seeding an ecosyste
3.
by ajafari1 4y ago
I updated the post to make it more clear, thanks for feedback. Entire movie? 75% chance sometime this decade. 25% early next decade.
4.
by ajafari1 4y ago
It was discussed in the prior post: https://aifuture.substack.com/p/the-ai-battle-rages-on
5.
A new AI era emerges(aifuture.substack.com)
2 points by ajafari1 4y ago|6 comments
6.
by ajafari1 4y ago
Every once in a while a revolutionary technology comes along that changes everything. While entrepreneurs are focused on Deep Learning applications, futurists are focused on artificial general intelligence (AGI). But literally, no one is ta
7.
A new way to predict when software jobs will become automated(aifuture.substack.com)
62 points by ajafari1 4y ago|122 comments
8.
by ajafari1 4y ago
OpenAI estimates that Github’s Copilot can already complete 37% of coding tasks. DeepMind’s AlphaCode is estimated to be 59% better at coding competitions than Codex. Will automation start in 2023?
9.
by ajafari1 4y ago
I see where you are going and may I suggest this thought experiment: let's say there is a team of 4 developers. AI automates 50% of their work, but there is still a lot of fine-tuning and certainly a lot of time in meetings with co-wor
10.
by ajafari1 4y ago
Yes, you correctly point out that high cost is a big factor. The other factor in why labor-intensive jobs are difficult, is that robotics has lagged far behind AI software. Even if Tesla or others mass produce robots starting in 2025 or 203
11.
Will AI target software dev jobs next? A new way to predict how close we are(aifuture.substack.com)
8 points by ajafari1 4y ago|16 comments
12.
by ajafari1 4y ago
OpenAI estimates that Codex (what powers Github’s Copilot) can already complete 37% of coding tasks. DeepMind’s non-commercial AlphaCode is estimated to be 59% better at coding competitions than Codex. But how close are we to automation? Th
13.
by ajafari1 4y ago
I wrote about this happening two days ago on my sub stack post, "OpenAI will start charging businesses for images based on how many images they request. Just like Amazon Web Services charges businesses for usage across storage, computi
14.
by ajafari1 4y ago
Not correct. They have a for-profit entity now. That's why there is a huge incentive to monetize. Any for-profit investment gain is capped at 100x, with the rest required to go to their nonprofit. This commercialization is just as I pr
15.
by ajafari1 4y ago
That's the common counterpoint, but is there 50x the demand for developers? I work in tech and I know how hard pressed people are for developer talent but it is not more than a couple fold off. I doubt companies and startups would have
16.
by ajafari1 4y ago
Nice! You were very close. With any exponential curve, it takes forever to get to point A, but once there, it's an immediate job to point Z.
17.
by ajafari1 4y ago
And a strategic way for OpenAI to garner more than 1M business and people on their waitlist as I outline in the article.
18.
by ajafari1 4y ago
We are moving too fast to put in adequate safeguards unfortunately. Demis Hassabis, founder of DeepMind, recently mentioned something interesting on a Lex Fridman interview. They are going to double down on safety since the algorithm side h
19.
by ajafari1 4y ago
Right on. When do you expect a productized AI that can replace your average skilled programmer?
20.
by ajafari1 4y ago
Exactly. Any content writer AI, developer AI, graphic designer AI just has to be good enough to cause an economic labor shift. There are plenty of non big tech companies that want affordable labor that can just get the job done. It doesn&#x
21.
by ajafari1 4y ago
I do believe AI alignment and safety is a huge concern, and unfortunately thinks are moving so fast there is not enough time for society to adapt. However, if we can safeguard that I am very optimistic about what a sufficiently advanced AI
22.
by ajafari1 4y ago
I like the way you are thinking and if you are talking about the snapshot of today, that is spot on. However, these models are getting better exponentially. See the improvement from GPT-3 just 2 years ago on this benchmark: https:/&#x
23.
by ajafari1 4y ago
Any bets on when the majority of software development is automated? My estimate based on the exponential improvement rate of AI on various tests like MMLU and MATH is within 3 years. I know that might sound crazy, but a year ago it would ha
24.
by ajafari1 4y ago
Thanks for reading my deep dive and your comment. If we zoom out to one year ago, most non AI-savvy people would have considered it preposterous that a graphics designer could become AI automated anytime soon. I believe, similar to you, tha
25.
by ajafari1 4y ago
New AI applications by OpenAI and Google are poised to take over creative jobs and much more. This will be a major disruption to jobs, the economy, and life as a whole. Here’s my take on how it will impact your job or business, your investm
26.
The AI Battle(aifuture.substack.com)
79 points by ajafari1 4y ago|128 comments