adrienditta

4 ms·

1. 1.▲
   Why bookmakers model betting behavior, not match probability(playaiodds.com)

   1 points by adrienditta 7mo ago|1 comments
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   by adrienditta 7mo ago

   Most people think bookmakers try to estimate the true probability of a match and then add a margin. In practice, their real problem is predicting how people will bet. A simple coin-flip example shows why: Even with a 10% overround, if 80% o
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   by adrienditta 1y ago

   Great article — the idea of “injectable micro-apps” or widgets inside a chatbot feels like a natural next step toward more fluid interfaces
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   by adrienditta 1y ago

   This article explores why bookmaker odds often diverge from the actual statistical probabilities of sports outcomes. It touches on topics like overrounds, market efficiency, and how bettor psychology and liquidity shape the implied probabil
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   by adrienditta 1y ago

   Happy to answer any questions about how I used Poisson and Glicko models to calculate match probabilities. I’m especially looking for feedback on how to visualize the predictions better.
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   Show HN: PlayAiOdds – Football probabilities from AI and mathematical models(playaiodds.com)

   1 points by adrienditta 1y ago|1 comments