adam_arthur

10 ms·

91.
by adam_arthur 8mo ago
People can take on debt for all sorts of things. To go on vacation, to gamble. Debt doesn't imply it's productively borrowed or intelligently used. Or even knowingly accrued. So given that the term technical debt has historically
92.
by adam_arthur 8mo ago
Yes! I've found the same principles that apply to humans apply to LLMs as well. Just that the agentic loops in these tools aren't (currently) structured and specific enough in their approach to optimally bound abstractions. At the
93.
by adam_arthur 8mo ago
LLMs have clearly accelerated development for the most skilled developers. Particularly when the human acts as the router/architect. However, I've found Claude Code and Co only really work well for bootstrapping projects. If you l
94.
by adam_arthur 9mo ago
Relying on the model for security is not security at all. No amount of hardening or fine-tuning will make them immune to takeover via untrusted context
95.
by adam_arthur 9mo ago
Comment definitely reads like AI
96.
by adam_arthur 10mo ago
I'm not sure in this specific case. They could choose to pay the employees some portion of the funds. If not, the owners are likely liable to be sued for "selling in effect" without paying equity holders. Presuming the compan
97.
by adam_arthur 10mo ago
Implies they will pay cash value to equity holders as opposed to issuing NVDA shares. (Electronically)
98.
by adam_arthur 10mo ago
Local tools/skills/function definitions can already invoke any API. There's no real benefit to the MCP protocol over a regular API with a published "client" a local LLM can invoke. The only downside is you'd ha
99.
by adam_arthur 11mo ago
Definitely I am not suggesting these companies can't pivot or monetize elsewhere, but the return on developing a marginally better model in-house does not really justify the cost at this stage. But to your point, developing research, d
100.
by adam_arthur 11mo ago
Yes, which is why the companies that develop the models aren't cost viable. (Google and others who can subsidize it at a loss obviously are excepted) Where is the return on the model development costs if anybody can host a roughly equi
101.
by adam_arthur 11mo ago
Storage doesn't require the same capex/upfront investment to get that margin. How much does it cost to train a cutting edge LLM? Those costs need to be factored into the margin from inferencing. Buying hard drives and slotting the
102.
by adam_arthur 11mo ago
Probably it's "operationally profitable" when ignoring capex, depreciation, dilution and other required expenses to stay current. Of course that means it's unprofitable in practice/GAAP terms. You'd have to hav
103.
by adam_arthur 1y ago
I'm confused by all the takes implying decode is more important than prefill. There are an enormous number of use cases where the prompt is large and the expected output is small. E.g. providing data for the LLM to analyze, after which
104.
by adam_arthur 1y ago
It's irrelevant whether change in policy is due to losing a war, revolution, or democratic election. If the numbers swing 5%, the US may suddenly have a radical change in foreign policy and governorship. Seen as recently as the 2024 el
105.
by adam_arthur 1y ago
I'm talking about the sentiment of the populace toward the US, not which legislators or leaders were in charge. It's undeniable that by and large Japanese sentiment towards the US bounced back quickly, despite a traumatic and expa
106.
by adam_arthur 1y ago
Like the US presidential elections every four years?
107.
by adam_arthur 1y ago
The US nuked Japan in the 1940s and only a short few years later were close allies. Similarly, Germany was the de facto enemy of the Ally aligned world in the 40s and only a few short decades later best friends with most. You can identify c
108.
by adam_arthur 1y ago
Google Search has AI responses at the top of the fold. Eventually those answers will be sufficient for most and give people no reason to move to alternatives. Allowing them to pay to be default seems to mostly guarantee this outcome
109.
by adam_arthur 1y ago
I'm curious as well. Depreciation and GPU failure rate over time must be considered, which I don't see mentioned in the article.
110.
by adam_arthur 1y ago
The LLM should not be seeing the raw DOM in its context window, but a highly simplified and compact version of it. In general LLMs perform worse both when the context is larger and also when the context is less information dense. To achieve
111.
by adam_arthur 1y ago
"Those under 45 have 1 child and those under 55 have ~2.3 kids." Yes, people are having kids at older ages. Looking at an arbitrary subset consisting of a younger population when considering lifetime fertility is not proper analys
112.
by adam_arthur 1y ago
Is this true for very wealthy people, or only for above average earners? There are many examples of very wealthy people having lots of children. Children are still a significant investment for high earners, but at a certain wealth level it
113.
by adam_arthur 2y ago
It's similar to how China dominated manufacturing in prior decades. They have massive amounts of low cost labor and, unfortunately, the US has pretty large walls up preventing mass in-migration of white collar workers. H1B is capped an
114.
by adam_arthur 2y ago
So if you withdraw 4% in year 1, and your underlying equities are flat for 10 years because the market moves sideways, as it did in 2000 to 2010, what percentage are you withdrawing in year 10? It's more than 4% That just makes my exam
115.
by adam_arthur 2y ago
The 4% rule suggests selling 4% of your principal per year. Buying a 4.625% yielding bond does not require selling principal at all. But you're taking my point too literally. You can easily buy a 6 or 7% yielding bond that is lower ris
116.
by adam_arthur 2y ago
Are you trying to retire with stable cash flow, or grow your wealth? For many, retirement is first and foremost about generating a stable income. A guaranteed lower rate of return is usually desirable over a speculative higher rate of retur
117.
by adam_arthur 2y ago
You can lock in cash flowing assets today yielding 6%+ with very low risk. Think REITs with conservative portfolios and strong balance sheets. You can lock in today's treasury rates for 30 years by buying a 30Y treasury bond. So, yes,
118.
by adam_arthur 2y ago
Sad to see people still parroting the 4% rule when you can get "risk free" US Treasuries, today, paying more than that. Not to speak of the numerous, still conservative, investments paying far higher. This isn't the 2010s era
119.
by adam_arthur 2y ago
And how much of Apple's services revenue comes from Google? When's the last time you paid Microsoft 15% to download an exe?
120.
by adam_arthur 2y ago
It is entirely relevant to the parent comment. As to the second part, it requires a bit of reading comprehension and contextual awareness, unfortunately.

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