adam_arthur

7 ms·

61.
by adam_arthur 4mo ago
Yes, I'd recommend a 5090 over the DGX Spark if your goal is general automation. You can run multiple instances of these models in parallel on the DGX Spark which somewhat mitigates the difference if your task is parallelizable. But I&
62.
by adam_arthur 4mo ago
Gemma 4 is particularly good at pipeline/automation tasks. It outperforms all the Qwen models (even 100B+) for rule following/automation style tasks in my experience. Its image interpretation is also very good, and out-benchmarks
63.
by adam_arthur 4mo ago
The lower the code quality and less coherent the design, the poorer the agent will perform over time as the project grows. Pure vibe coding pretty much limits the max scope of your project to the capability of the agent, and if you're
64.
by adam_arthur 4mo ago
There is no way to prove, but what is definitely true is that many people are attempting to use LLMs on forums and otherwise. So if you think none of these comments are written by LLMs, you're probably mistaken too. In the end we accep
65.
by adam_arthur 4mo ago
There are many with subtle tells. Not nearly as obvious as the ones from 6 months ago, but seems to be more the use of hyperbolic phrasing in a particularly unnatural way. The assess/explain, then hyperbole at the end kind of structure
66.
by adam_arthur 4mo ago
Anthropic is absolutely not profitable on a GAAP basis. Companies may state cash flow positive, operating profit, EBITDA positive, but this is not a true profit in aggregate, just when stripping out many other expenses. If anyone has eviden
67.
by adam_arthur 4mo ago
There's quite a large cushion for software salaries to decline before permanent structural unemployment were to set in. It's not really feasible for "normal" businesses to hire developers at current salaries. Tech compan
68.
by adam_arthur 4mo ago
These small models exist in the cloud and are/will be priced commensurately to their size. Your claim is effectively that companies don't care about operational/cloud costs. Even pre-LLM, companies regularly assessed and trie
69.
by adam_arthur 4mo ago
The entire universe of automation projects that can be run effectively for free relative to SoTA models? I don't think many realize that most LLM embedded automation, pipelines, products will soon be able to run extremely cheaply on mo
70.
by adam_arthur 5mo ago
If you look at all the tech companies doing buybacks, usually the shares created for employee RSUs matches or exceeds the shares retired from buybacks. Not in all cases, but many Which is why GAAP earnings matter and not free cash flow
71.
by adam_arthur 5mo ago
Pretty much everything that appears novel in life is derivative of other works or concepts. You can watch a rock roll down a hill and derive the concept for the wheel. Seems pretty self evident to me
72.
by adam_arthur 5mo ago
I had the complete opposite experience. The more money and security I made, the less beholden I felt to the workplace and things that weren't personal to me. Less anxiety, less need to appeal to others for survival/success (of cou
73.
by adam_arthur 5mo ago
In the rare case that all your concepts use the exact same descriptive word, you are probably right! The majority of the time you can infer the type from reading well written code (to the extent that the shape of the type matters in the con
74.
by adam_arthur 5mo ago
It seems clear to me from first principles. Humans are trained on human language. LLMs are trained on human language. Thus something that is easier for a human to understand is likely easier for an LLM to understand. That higher level langu
75.
by adam_arthur 5mo ago
Strong typing has clearly won. However, verbose typing is likely a negative for LLMs. Algorithms written in "pseudo-code", aka a higher level language without type information, are far more readable to a human, and thus likely an
76.
by adam_arthur 5mo ago
I recently found Gemma 4 e4b surprisingly effective for small "classification" style tasks for something I'm doing at work. In this case, picking out "semantic" css classes on single dom nodes. Was able to run it on
77.
by adam_arthur 5mo ago
The blackout started back in January before the US even got involved. Due to widespread protests and an attempt to crack down on coordination. This chain of events was widely reported. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026
78.
by adam_arthur 6mo ago
Fear can create a self fulfilling problem, even if the fundamentals don't warrant that problem. I don't know in this case, but I'd guess 1) Cyber security risk (straightforward) 2) Software stocks have been declining material
79.
by adam_arthur 6mo ago
On the other hand, I never understood the focus on computer use. While more general and perhaps the "ideal" end state once models run cheaply enough, you're always going to suffer from much higher latency and reduced cognitio
80.
by adam_arthur 7mo ago
I don't understand the position that learning through inference/example is somehow inferior to a top down/rules based learning. Humans learn many, and perhaps even the majority, of things through observed examples and inferen
81.
by adam_arthur 7mo ago
Which is exactly how humans learn many things too. E.g. observing a game being played to form an understanding of the rules, rather than reading the rulebook Or: Observing language as a baby. Suddenly you can speak grammatically correctly e
82.
by adam_arthur 7mo ago
The 9% of borrowers defaulting stat cited in the title is not the same as 9% of the loanbook defaulting. As stated in the article, 9% is the number of borrowers that defaulted, which was concentrated in smaller borrowers (thus smaller loans
83.
by adam_arthur 7mo ago
It sounds like you're effectively describing some fraud scheme. A smart lender will not issue loans without real collateral. If you create a subsidiary, that subsidiary has to have sufficient collateral and cashflow to secure a loan.
84.
by adam_arthur 7mo ago
> Oooh, source? (I'm curious for when this was measured.) It depends when you measure, but you can Google around and find figures in the 60-80% range. 80% may have been a bit on the optimistic end of the range. But it's importa
85.
by adam_arthur 7mo ago
There is so much misinformed fear-mongering about private credit right now. Important Facts: 1) The majority of private credit funds are classed as "permanent capital". When you put money into these vehicles, you give the Asset Ma
86.
by adam_arthur 7mo ago
No, it's bad policy. Cliffs in policies will always lead to players working around the cliffs. E.g. in NYC there is an additional 1% sales tax on home sales above 1 million dollars. So nobody in the market would ever sell a home betwee
87.
by adam_arthur 7mo ago
I'm not familiar with that specific example, but I do know that independent players in any economic system will follow the incentives. Expecting companies, people etc to do the "right thing" when it's financially disince
88.
by adam_arthur 7mo ago
The current governor is proposing cutting property taxes in ~half by eliminating the school district portion and instead funding schools directly via the state's budget surplus. Remains to be seen, as the next legislative session isn&#
89.
by adam_arthur 7mo ago
Oil futures (months out) are priced lower than spot, presumably due to anticipation that Iran driven disruption to the market will be short lived. (Remains to be seen whether that's true)
90.
by adam_arthur 8mo ago
Yeah, but a large monorepo can consist of many small subprojects. And arguably this is becoming a best practice. Just spawn the agent in one of the subprojects

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