Zigurd

18 ms·

211.
by Zigurd 2mo ago
For example, Google ridiculously overpaid for SpaceX AI data center capacity, by something like more than an order of magnitude, both directly and via Anthropic. An inquisitively suspicious, not to say cynical, person might believe this was
212.
by Zigurd 2mo ago
Take comfort in the fact that compared to the size of the universe, the speed of light is like molasses in January. Cosmological eschatology is a very slow game, and the odds of you being alive and in the right place to be a spectator are l
213.
by Zigurd 2mo ago
I believe in AGI to the extent that if what's going on between your ears isn't happening on a network of neurons, it's magic. And I also believe the idea that AGI is near is based on the emergent capabilities of LLMs. There&#
214.
by Zigurd 2mo ago
A few months ago I heard Demis Hassabis say something, albeit vague, I doubt he truly believed regarding AGI. That AGI is relatively near is the party line everywhere. That may contribute to creating toxic environments and lousy investment
215.
by Zigurd 2mo ago
Using capillary blood that's been sitting on your fingertip, that has some amount of interstitial fluid in it will make your blood tests fail, even if you collect enough blood that way to use a conventional blood testing machine. If yo
216.
by Zigurd 2mo ago
The Theranos machine actually did run blood tests. But only a very limited number of blood tests can be run on a finger prick sample due to limitations on the volume collected, contamination, etc. In other words it was a wild ass idea from
217.
by Zigurd 2mo ago
Starship has as much chance of working to spec as the Theranos machine. Except the scam is three orders of magnitude or more larger. But if you take a step back and ignore the hype, the rocket is way too big for orbital delivery of payloads
218.
by Zigurd 2mo ago
There are a couple of other important factors: one is safety. Waymos observe traffic laws and safety rules. With enough Waymo on the road, everyone else will be forced to obey speed limits. As a cyclist, I welcomed the day when Waymo waits
219.
by Zigurd 2mo ago
Skepticism of AI is the healthiest attitude you can have these days. I use coding agents every day, but that just makes me acutely aware that coding, even compared to supposedly structurally favorable targets like law and medicine, is a sin
220.
by Zigurd 2mo ago
You mean Theranos, right?
221.
by Zigurd 2mo ago
Having just one reason or one influence for massive strategic errors seems unlikely. And in this case that certainly doesn't make it better.
222.
by Zigurd 2mo ago
If you tried, could you make a more vague and abstract example of the sunk cost fallacy? Iran would do what with what to whom? There is literally no better example of a case where we could just stop being stupid and injuring ourselves by be
223.
by Zigurd 2mo ago
You summed up the naïve approach to the cost and reusability issue: > To actually reach the next level of profit opportunity you need to achieve full re-usability. Upper stage reusability is hard, heavy, and expensive. At least 5X as h
224.
by Zigurd 2mo ago
One of these things is not like the other. Russia is a threat to Europe, and is in the midst of invading a country with a lot of agricultural, industrial, and cultural upside that should be on the road to EU integration. Bombing the snot ou
225.
by Zigurd 2mo ago
If I was an ex KGB man running the rump of an ex empire, I'd be thinking of ways of disarming the strongest military in NATO. "Sure go ahead invade Iran, we are so impressed with your leader we wouldn't dare do anything to di
226.
by Zigurd 2mo ago
It's easier to roll out in places where it seldom snows.
227.
by Zigurd 2mo ago
You have an idealistic, not to say naïve, view of the relationship between PDs and the municipalities that pay for them.
228.
by Zigurd 2mo ago
Now that they are publicly traded, there may be less scope for shenanigans in those numbers. If they really had such great margins on falcon 9, an improved, cost reduced falcon rocket would make a lot of sense. Instead they're betting
229.
by Zigurd 2mo ago
This is the key insight: it's not a question of better or worse security. Airport screening doesn't enhance security. This can even be experimentally measured. Bottles of liquid get screened reliably while weapons don't get d
230.
by Zigurd 2mo ago
There's no one single purpose to backing candidates that have a Trumpy agenda. Individual greed certainly plays a part. But if you are a former KGB man running a relatively weak, isolated rump of an empire, you're going to surf a
231.
by Zigurd 3mo ago
Corporate security is the most sought after gig for cops. It attracts the best of the best. Certainly the most ambitious. If someone were to ever dump the texts and emails of a major city PD, it would open a lot of eyes.
232.
by Zigurd 3mo ago
I can see this being sensible regarding, for example, swordfish, which is long lived apex predator. They get the bio accumulation of everything they eat. Farm salmon has a short life and a controlled diet. Where would they get heavy metals?
233.
by Zigurd 3mo ago
I can assure you Elon won't stop being a horrible human if Grok no longer enables revenge porn and worse.
234.
by Zigurd 3mo ago
I suppose I could think of worse use cases like: give me a recipe for a sketchy peptide shake, but not by much.
235.
by Zigurd 3mo ago
This is what happens when you elect a corrupt real estate developer who hires all of his corrupt real estate developer family members and in-laws and turns them loose on the planet with the waning hard power of the US government behind them
236.
by Zigurd 3mo ago
TBF the US military are not magicians. Seemingly everybody except for five people in the White House was aware that you can't successfully invade Iran, no matter how many carriers bombers and bombs you've got. It's peak asymm
237.
by Zigurd 3mo ago
We are still too powerful, but we're squandering that power alarmingly fast. We have destroyed diplomatic soft power. Our software industry used to be able to rely on getting 50% of their revenue outside the US, but we can't be tr
238.
by Zigurd 3mo ago
That's a rational analysis, but SpaceX is really in the rearranging deck chairs business. I keep seeing items in the business press that claim that SpaceX is an AI company, having merged with a second rate AI company that Elon outright
239.
by Zigurd 3mo ago
A year from now when SpaceX continues to make very slow progress with starship, and is still years away from being able to refuel a starship with 15 other starship launches, people will value the rockets similarly to Grok. Especially if the
240.
by Zigurd 3mo ago
I would not minimize the extent to which AI progress depends on things like the effort that goes into training material acquisition and data labeling. In those areas, improvement is a direct function of how much you invest. I wonder how muc

More ›