PheonixPharts

12 ms·

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by PheonixPharts 3y ago
You can always find quotes from people who are off in their estimates, but even a glance at the data [0] should convince you that things are not going well and that all of these predictions were at the very least directionaly correct. Genui
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by PheonixPharts 3y ago
"20 years ago they said these events were 30 years away, and now they're saying they're just 10 years away, can't these climate scientists ever get it right!"
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by PheonixPharts 3y ago
The underlying assumption Black-Scholes makes, that stock price movements can be modeled by a log-normal distribution, is known to be false. However not since the 1980s has this lead to the ability to make money of the model itself being im
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by PheonixPharts 3y ago
Adding to this, it's very worthwhile exercise for any curious programmer to work out the IV of a stock based on options pricing and compare it to other measure of volatility (for example historic volatility, or even your own beliefs ab
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by PheonixPharts 3y ago
> Customer support team of 10 is replaced with chatbot and 2 people. My experience, having grown up when all customer service reps were people, is exactly what I stated above: this is just giving up on customer service. Anyone who has ev
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by PheonixPharts 3y ago
Anyone who works in AI, especially very closely with models, will tell you that it's not capable of really replacing any jobs yet. All these jobs being "replaced by AI" are simply being eliminated with the consequences of the
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by PheonixPharts 3y ago
> Things have been too good for too long in InvestorWorld That's not by accident and it's been at the expense of non-investor world for a long time. What we're seeing is finance capitalism suck surplus value from every pie
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by PheonixPharts 3y ago
I do a lot of open source LLM research/dev work on a Mac Studio. While it doesn't quite compete in terms of speed with a GPU for standard transformers models, I can run pretty huge models locally. When I'm working with llam
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by PheonixPharts 3y ago
> They literally wrote the book on this I didn't realize Apple literally wrote a book on the subject. Sounds interesting, what's the title?
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by PheonixPharts 3y ago
I think you're misunderstanding what I'm saying. I enjoy plenty of non-spicy foods, and don't need every meal to be spicy, nor to I think that the only flavorful meals are spicy meals. My point is exclusively with chili peppe
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by PheonixPharts 3y ago
> I prefer more flavorful chiles, with less spice. As someone with a fairly high spice tolerance, I've found a strong correlation between heat and flavor . I think anyone coming from a culture that eats spicy food will agree. I h
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by PheonixPharts 3y ago
You're really generating $3000 per month from ChatGPT? Can you give a hint about what you've built that generates this kind of ROI? I have only seen people making money in AI by selling AI products/promises to other people wh
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by PheonixPharts 3y ago
I've stopped believing in rational markets a long time ago. For the people behind this funding madness: > to skew markets, skew the financials of big tech and create a bubble in the space. Are the intended consequences of this. Th
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by PheonixPharts 3y ago
You must have a pretty impressive resume if you don’t consider François a researcher! The wikipedia would disagree with you [0], as would anyone that has had any interaction with him on the subject. 0. https://en.wikipedia.org&#x
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by PheonixPharts 3y ago
François Chollet, author of Keras, lays it out pretty clearly that LLMs are just memorizing [0] (there’s more links if you follow that thread). I think LLMs are incredible, and spend most of my days working with them closely, but they are
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by PheonixPharts 3y ago
You don't think the even simpler answer is that VR is really not a solved problem yet for everyday users? I really enjoy my psvr2, but I'm never going to have that headset on for more than an hour a day every few days. I thought t
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by PheonixPharts 3y ago
It's not about not trusting it or "staying in your lane", LLM results for domain specific work are terrible, and additionally useless if you're writing fairly novel code (which most ML practitioners/Compiler program
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by PheonixPharts 3y ago
This thread is an object lesson in the point I'm making: people have forgotten everything we've learned about making ML based products. Parent comment doesn't understand the concept of expectation , and this comment is appar
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by PheonixPharts 3y ago
> I'd love to know what are some of the hidden challenges to making a useful product with agents? One thing that is still confusing to me, is that we've been building products with machine learning pretty heavily for a decade
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by PheonixPharts 3y ago
I think money is the least of the reasons why those founders wouldn't attract him. To attract someone at Karpathy's level you would need a project that is both wildly challenging (and yet not the typical startup "challengin
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by PheonixPharts 3y ago
Just wait until you learn about tulips! I never understood tulip mania until my wife started planting them. Tulips are annuals, so they only are expected to grow one season. You often order the bulbs in summer and they're delivered in
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by PheonixPharts 3y ago
"Evaluation" has a pretty standard meaning in the LLM community the same way that "unit test" does in software. Evaluations are suites of challenges presented to an LLM to evaluate how well it does as a form of bench-m
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by PheonixPharts 3y ago
I find this result absolutely fascinating, and is exactly the type of research into neural networks we should be expanding. We've rapidly engineered our way to some very impressive models this past decade, and yet gap in our real und
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by PheonixPharts 3y ago
"Years of gloom"? For my entire career in tech, anything that isn't the most extreme of optimistic view points has been relegated to unnecessary and destructive pessimism. Tech can't stand "bad thoughts". We ha
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by PheonixPharts 3y ago
I'm speaking to your point about: > Common wisdom might make you think that I should be having companies throwing wads of cash at me My point is just that you're misunderstanding "common wisdom". In 2016, yes a job a
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by PheonixPharts 3y ago
FAANG reputations are no longer evenly distributed. Even though most people's opinions of the company have changed, Google engineers are still widely considered to be high quality. Apple engineers also have a great reputation but it&#x
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by PheonixPharts 3y ago
> You're ignoring the reason data visualizations exist in the first place. My opinion on pie-charts and poor visualization comes from years of studying data visualization, not ignoring it. Would you argue that Tufte doesn't val
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by PheonixPharts 3y ago
> It's not that bad when the purpose of the pie is not to figure out which group is the biggest But it's not better than a sorted table: - A (90%) - B (5.1%) - C (4.9%) Which group there is biggest? Which is the smallest? >
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by PheonixPharts 3y ago
> Charts To be clear, I'm specifically talking about pie-charts and not all charts. There are plenty of cases where a chart conveys information appropriate to the task. The relationships are visually represented in a table, the mini
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by PheonixPharts 3y ago
I'll concede that this is a reasonable case.

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