NunoSempere

7 ms·

31.
by NunoSempere 1y ago
Here is a thread with some fun fermi estimates made with that tool: e.g., number of calories NK gets from Russia: https://x.com/NunoSempere/status/1857135650404966456 900K 1.5M # tonnes of rice per year NK get
32.
by NunoSempere 1y ago
Fermi in particular has the following syntax ``` 5M 12M # number of people living in Chicago beta 1 200 # fraction of people that have a piano 30 180 # minutes it takes to tune a piano, including travel time /
33.
by NunoSempere 1y ago
I have written similar tools - for command line, fermi: https://git.nunosempere.com/NunoSempere/fermi - for android, a distribution calculator: https://f-droid.org/en/packages/com.nunosempere.
34.
Forecasting newsletter #3/2025: Long march through the institutions(forecasting.substack.com)
1 points by NunoSempere 2y ago|0 comments
35.
by NunoSempere 2y ago
I bought a Pocketbook after Amazon started nagging too much about connecting to the wifi. Would recommend.
36.
by NunoSempere 2y ago
They just shipped a frontpage; there is no model yet.
37.
by NunoSempere 2y ago
I have an article looking at similar probabilities here: < https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/how-likely-are-various-prec... >; for asteroids we gave 0.02% per decade of killing >= 1M people. One thing to consider
38.
by NunoSempere 2y ago
Forgot the url, it should point [here]( https://git.nunosempere.com/NunoSempere/fermi )
39.
Fermi: A terminal DSL for Fermi estimation with distributions
3 points by NunoSempere 2y ago|1 comments
40.
by NunoSempere 2y ago
I built my own version on nvm (called nsnvm, for "Nuño's stupid node version manager") to solve this. You can see it here: https://github.com/NunoSempere/nsnvm Absurdly fewer features (and might break np
41.
by NunoSempere 2y ago
I'm working on a foresight and emergency response team to see large calamities coming before they happen, and hopefully be able to do something about it. We put out weekly minutes at https://blog.sentinel-team.org
42.
by NunoSempere 2y ago
From a previous project: https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/09/15/wc/ that was looking not at speed, but at simplicity, here is a comparison of different historical versions of wc: --- The [version o
43.
by NunoSempere 2y ago
Some which I use: lf, neomutt, moc/mocp, newsboat, fzf. Screenshots for some: https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/27/soothing-software/ to a lesser extent: btop, htop (but I find the shortcuts
44.
by NunoSempere 2y ago
On that note, moc ( http://moc.daper.net/ ) is also pretty nice
45.
by NunoSempere 2y ago
Wow, thanks for the pointer, finding it super useful right now to see what's taking so much space in my backups
46.
by NunoSempere 3y ago
Cute zeroth order approximation, but you can also shift consumption forward if you think a nuclear war is near, or devote more resources to preventing it if you think the probability is higher.
47.
by NunoSempere 3y ago
Good Judgment Open, Metaculus
48.
by NunoSempere 3y ago
Yeah, good question. A few years ago the answer may have been that we thought we could influence more money than we could make. Fwiw, when I've tried it, it has tended to suck in a whole lot of my time. For me, other projects seem more
49.
by NunoSempere 3y ago
Thanks!
50.
by NunoSempere 3y ago
> base rate reasoning using the past 99 years of data would suggest that the probability is 0 Looking at edge cases is good for sanity checking, so it's a good habit, and I commend you. In your example, though, we can also consider
51.
by NunoSempere 3y ago
I like Whoogle ( https://github.com/benbusby/whoogle-search ), e.g., https://s.tokhmi.xyz/ , and Searx ( https://github.com/searx/searx ), e.g., https://searx.space/ I
52.
by NunoSempere 4y ago
I'm instead having people try to use my newsletter to "DDOS" other people (subscribe someone to 1000 newsletters, of which one is mine, and see how they like it). Subscription confirmation emails don't help, because now
53.
by NunoSempere 4y ago
See also: < https://tools.suckless.org/sent/ >, which is similar but has an emphasis in minimalism and the Takakashi method (< https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Takahashi_method >)
54.
by NunoSempere 4y ago
Recently I've been playing with Rose, which is a small GTK+Webkit project that I've found really nice to hack on [1]. Src: < https://github.com/mini-rose/rose > [1]. And I'm in fact typing this from
55.
by NunoSempere 4y ago
Nice, thanks for the reference. Seems like the main bash script has 1.5k lines, which is still a lot, though much less than nvm.
56.
by NunoSempere 4y ago
Personally, maybe metaforecast.org, which aggregates forecasts from different prediction market & forecasting sites.
57.
Show HN: Nuño's Stupid Node Version Manager(github.com)
4 points by NunoSempere 4y ago|2 comments