> base rate reasoning using the past 99 years of data would suggest that the probability is 0 Looking at edge cases is good for sanity checking, so it's a good

> base rate reasoning using the past 99 years of data would suggest that the probability is 0 Looking at edge cases is good for sanity checking, so it's a good habit, and I commend you. In your example, though, we can also consider the base rate of an event which hasn't happened in 99 years as 1/101, per Laplace's rule of succession. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_succession https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_succession