MiroF

82 ms·

871.
by MiroF 7y ago
In emergency situations, it's possible misleading the public might be somewhat necessary to reach optimal health outcomes. There is substantial literature on this question with regards to climate change messaging. The government alread
872.
by MiroF 7y ago
It should be seized and compensated with eminent domain. Buying implies right of refusal and no, I don't think that Target should be able to stockpile N95 masks in its warehouses.
873.
by MiroF 7y ago
This will probably hit us culturally the way SARS hit east Asia in the early aughts. The good news is that we likely won't be caught completely flat footed against a pandemic again.
874.
by MiroF 7y ago
> I personally hate being told something that is patently false, but I totally understand that, collectively, we need to be lied to for our own protection, because collectively we become a bunch of idiots. Yep, I understand this. I'
875.
by MiroF 7y ago
I think that GTD can actually eliminate overhead, but honestly it all depends on how good the ad-hoc system you are coming from was.
876.
by MiroF 7y ago
that is not a reasonable assumption at all - it's a dice roll regardless. admission at one good school doesn't guarantee admission at another, even if you have legacy. (and is also highly dependent on which Ivies we're talkin
877.
by MiroF 7y ago
It depends heavily on the SAT subject test. Math II, for instance, is heavily curved and anyone with a solid understanding of high school math and their calculator should have no problem getting an 800. But I'm not sure if the same is
878.
by MiroF 7y ago
What's easy for you is not easy for everyone. It currently is a pretty good predictor of ability in college.
879.
by MiroF 7y ago
Is the evidence really that suggestive that college prep makes such a huge difference? I am skeptical, it seemed pretty easy to just study from the blue book. Probably the biggest way to stop the affluent from taking advantage of the system
880.
by MiroF 7y ago
Agreed. In my opinion, the best way to make admissions more fair is not to eliminate the SAT but to eliminate score choice.
881.
by MiroF 7y ago
Surprised that I ended up in the red on that comment, yet not a single person has given me a paper where anyone says that 15 million is a possible worst case US death toll.
882.
by MiroF 7y ago
I have also been to the wet markets in two Chinese provinces (Yunnan & Shanghai [not a province, I guess]). At least in the most dense regions of China that I observed, the state definitely at least seemed to have the ability to enforce
883.
by MiroF 7y ago
Agreed, and as many as 2.2 million. No need to make already awful numbers into lies by multiplying by 7.
884.
by MiroF 7y ago
So when people are talking about eradicating the coronavirus, they also mean in the animal population? Seems to me that the virus that can spread among humans is a different version than the one common among the animal population.
885.
by MiroF 7y ago
Again, based on what? I have seen nowhere near that level of estimate assuming peak hospital overload and unmitigated spread. Stats from Italy are going to be heavily skewed towards fatalities for a number of reasons that have been document
886.
by MiroF 7y ago
There is no scenario in which we see 15 million deaths. I would like to see a single real academic you can find saying anything like that.
887.
by MiroF 7y ago
Even still, we just can't scale up PCR like that.
888.
by MiroF 7y ago
> Or that they are authoritarian superhumans with a superior response. I think that you discount this option too quickly. Have you been to China before?
889.
by MiroF 7y ago
What's interesting is that the rate of negative results seems to be roughly constant. I would expect that with an expansion of testing we would see many more negative results as a proportion (if we were allocating tests early only to t
890.
by MiroF 7y ago
Okay, I'm glad we agree on the lockdown. I agree that it is a pipe dream to suggest that we could scale up critical beds such that hospitals will not be overburdened. But I disagree that there is nothing to be done. If we've bough
891.
by MiroF 7y ago
It's clear everyone saying "a test for every American!" has never worked with PCR before.
892.
by MiroF 7y ago
Which is why I said "and scale up medical capacity" (and unspoken but of course: yes, there will be hundreds of thousands of deaths at the minimum, even with these measures) > You need tests to backtrack and force isolate the s
893.
by MiroF 7y ago
> Humanity never eradicated a disease without a vaccine. SARS within the last 2 decades? Look, I think eradication is a pipe dream at this point, but it'd be worth mildly checking your facts before posting. e: If I'm getting fl
894.
by MiroF 7y ago
I'm going to go ahead and say going outside should still be permissible (at least right now).
895.
by MiroF 7y ago
Yes that sounds great. We do not have the capacity to make this happen before our hospitals overload and potentially 2.2 million die unless we take containment measures now. Tests are good. We need containment now if we want them to be us
896.
by MiroF 7y ago
Sure, but we have more than enough evidence to show that emergency room visits are increasing and emergency room deaths are mounting. Control then test.
897.
by MiroF 7y ago
FWIW, many of those countries that have been touted as testing+tracing success cases are now reporting patterns consistent with uncontrolled exponential growth of the virus in the past few days (although not in SK yet) [1]: https:/&#x
898.
by MiroF 7y ago
> why not make testing every last American (multiple times, as necessary) priority #1 These discussions are so far divorced from the reality of the interventions available to policymakers.
899.
by MiroF 7y ago
Widespread testing? How does that help without any sort of transmission control measures? What is up with this obsession with testing? We need to lower R0 and scale up medical infrastructure. Elimination at this point is a fantasy. To be cl
900.
by MiroF 7y ago
Lobbying power can be confronted by other considerable lobbying interests. Large healthcare conglomerates would seem to have considerable interest in reducing labor costs. A crisis like this would be the perfect opportunity to fix some of t

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