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Which is why I said "and scale up medical capacity" (and unspoken but of course: yes, there will be hundreds of thousands of deaths at the minimum, even with th
by MiroF 7y ago
Which is why I said "and scale up medical capacity" (and unspoken but of course: yes, there will be hundreds of thousands of deaths at the minimum, even with these measures)
> You need tests to backtrack and force isolate the sick. This waiting it out shit won’t cut it
You can only test and isolate if you first institute quarantine measures. Even after instituting quarantine measures, we still will unlikely be able to prevent an eventual resurgence of the disease.
From everything I've read, there's no path out of this that doesn't involve either:
a. shelter & scaling up critical care
b. at least a million people in the US dead
- dilyevsky 7y agoHow are you going to train so many doctors in months? Total pipe dream to scale it more than 2x and then it will still take years. Ofc you lock down then test everyone who comes in the hospital and then everyone who they came in contact with recursively until you stop finding any positives. Then you lock em all up for three weeks Edit: and i dont mean self quarantine. I mean like the chinese did it
- MiroF 7y agoOkay, I'm glad we agree on the lockdown. I agree that it is a pipe dream to suggest that we could scale up critical beds such that hospitals will not be overburdened. But I disagree that there is nothing to be done. If we've bought time so that rather than 5 critical cases/bed we have 3, that is a huge improvement and still means potentially hundreds of thousands saved. I am also skeptical that the primary or only shortage is labor.
- dilyevsky 7y agoThe lockdown is just to slow it down so you can reasonably mount test and forced quarantine response. Realistically it will need military to step in or something like that. You can’t stop it with just lockdown. Currently US is barely doing the former and not doing the latter at all (unless you are celebrity). It is bad. My projection is at least 100k will die by the end of the year if nothing changes