JasonDuke

3 ms·

1. 1.▲
   Authority is the degenerate case: what else propagates through the link graph?(zenodo.org)

   1 points by JasonDuke 4mo ago|0 comments
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   Show HN: 65K synthetic personas project 136 English council elections(github.com)

   4 points by JasonDuke 6mo ago|0 comments
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   Show HN: Kronaxis Router – Don't pay frontier prices when a local LLM is enough(github.com)

   2 points by JasonDuke 6mo ago|0 comments
4. 4.▲
   by JasonDuke 6mo ago

   You are right, I overstated that. YouGov did publish MRP projections for selected councils in 2024 and 2025. The distinction I should have drawn is that MRP projects from national polling data down to local level using demographic models.
5. 5.▲
   by JasonDuke 6mo ago

   You're right that 8 wards is too small to claim statistical validity, and the calibration was derived from those same 8 wards. That's overfitting until proven otherwise. That's exactly why we are pre-registered predictions fo
6. 6.▲
   by JasonDuke 6mo ago

   YouGov doesn't poll council elections. Nobody does. There's no commercial incentive to poll 5,000 individual wards at £10-50 per respondent. That's the gap. YouGov's MRP models predict at constituency level for general e
7. 7.▲
   by JasonDuke 6mo ago

   thats fair.
8. 8.▲
   Show HN: 65k AI voters predict UK local elections with 75% accuracy(kronaxis.co.uk)

   9 points by JasonDuke 6mo ago|9 comments