Hammershaft

5 ms·

61.
by Hammershaft 7mo ago
I disagree. Prediction markets have value for people as a source of reliable information because they tend to be very accurate compared to any other human mechanism for creating forecasts. https://marginalrevolution.com/marg
62.
by Hammershaft 7mo ago
Prediction markets also have very interesting ideas. https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/10/pr...
63.
by Hammershaft 7mo ago
The question isn't whether futarchy isn't perfect, it's whether its better than our existing democracy.
64.
by Hammershaft 7mo ago
There might be selection effects in who posts their score. (got 0.0027 btw :p)
65.
by Hammershaft 7mo ago
Cost is not a minor thing considering the suffering that poverty creates.
66.
by Hammershaft 7mo ago
What makes this 'shit' for you compared to the fruits we've conventionally engineered into unnatural forms via selective breeding?
67.
by Hammershaft 7mo ago
Pro models won gold at the international math olympiads?
68.
by Hammershaft 7mo ago
Is $130k a year 'scraps'? If you're making the average dev salary you're richer than %99.9 of people across the world [1]. The only reason we make this much is because of sustained productivity growth. [1] https:/&
69.
by Hammershaft 7mo ago
European countries with labor regs that make firing more expensive tend to have higher unemployment rates (specially youth unemployment) because hiring becomes more risky.
70.
by Hammershaft 7mo ago
It's true, and yet there are real market failures that even a very ineffective government can improve on dramatically, like innovation & research output via basic science.
71.
by Hammershaft 7mo ago
I would like all these things too but I wouldn't like the downstream side effects: a) Fewer companies taking a chance on people because the cost of firing has risen. b) Lower productivity growth leading to lower wages in the long run b
72.
by Hammershaft 8mo ago
On a mobile device I can't interact with the game, consider detecting mobile screen sizes and loading some gifs :)
73.
by Hammershaft 8mo ago
Yes, outsized gains are shifting to capital, but cheaper software development means more software & more competition which benefits people across the world.
74.
by Hammershaft 8mo ago
Claude 4.6 got it first try: "You’ll want to drive — you need the car at the car wash for them to wash it! Even though it’s just 50 meters, the car has to be there. Enjoy the fresh clean car on the short drive back! &quo
75.
by Hammershaft 8mo ago
I think Opus 4.5 & 4.6 are an impressive step up in capabilities but I'm really skeptical that this model is replacing the output of 9/10 skilled front end engineers as a project grows beyond the early stages.
76.
by Hammershaft 8mo ago
Even as a software developer affected by it, I don't think it should be banned. Productivity improvements are how we get richer in aggregate over the long term, even if those impacted (like you & me) might feel the brunt of transit
77.
by Hammershaft 8mo ago
Hey, is JJ compatibility in the cards? Considering the blog article hints at a goal of a developerless agent-to-agent automation platform I'm guessing developer conveniences are a side quest rn?
78.
by Hammershaft 8mo ago
Then you'll need interoperability of development artifacts to work with teams.
79.
by Hammershaft 8mo ago
This has had tremendous real world consequences. The European austerity wave of the early 2010s was largely downstream of an excel spreadsheet errors that changed the result of a major study on the impact of debt/gdp. https:/&#x2
80.
by Hammershaft 8mo ago
What constitutes life-changing and what constitutes intensive dexterity will subjectively vary by person based on their skills and tastes. I didn't find the game to require much dexterity, but I did find it to have interest world desig
81.
by Hammershaft 8mo ago
I don't think the taxes are a big factor. The most entrepreneurial tech-oriented startup hubs in the US are the highest taxed states. The regulatory environment does make a difference.
82.
by Hammershaft 9mo ago
The %55 budget cut is proposed, it fortunately hasn't happened yet and it might not survive congress.
83.
by Hammershaft 9mo ago
I don't think this describes all or most AI hype, but it definitely describes Marc Andreessen when he said VCs would be the last ones automated.
84.
by Hammershaft 9mo ago
It might be gambling for some, but prediction markets are impressively accurate, in a way that I think merits OPs comment that the information they produce can improve lives. (Other lives will surely be destroyed by gambling...) There'
85.
by Hammershaft 9mo ago
It is, but it's a well known systemic error that has to do with the rate of return from certain accuracy improving predictions falling below the rate of return of anything else. You can learn a lot more about whether these markets are
86.
by Hammershaft 9mo ago
Amazon is particularly wild because you can use the site without realizing %70 of your results are ads.
87.
by Hammershaft 9mo ago
Great catch, that absolutely looks like purposeful ambiguity.
88.
by Hammershaft 9mo ago
New reddit is a travesty. It feels a satirical mockery of modern webdev
89.
by Hammershaft 9mo ago
I would personally avoid voices that skew too close to common tiktok TTS ai. Currently the heavy robots with the lower bassier voices sell that clunky robot voice vibe much better, but some of the more generic voices immediately take me out
90.
by Hammershaft 9mo ago
Fish is just excellent out of the box. It's a little tragic how path dependent we are on flawed terminal experiences designed 40 years ago.

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