It is, but it's a well known systemic error that has to do with the rate of return from certain accuracy improving predictions falling below the rate of return

It is, but it's a well known systemic error that has to do with the rate of return from certain accuracy improving predictions falling below the rate of return of anything else. You can learn a lot more about whether these markets are accurate at this great resource: https://calibration.city/introduction https://calibration.city/introduction