Eliezer

22 ms·

211.
by Eliezer 10y ago
OBLIGATORY http://www.rdrop.com/~wyvern/data/houseplants.html
212.
by Eliezer 10y ago
Venezuela is being run by Atlas Shrugged villains. If there was ever in history an appropriate time to reference Atlas Shrugged, it's there.
213.
by Eliezer 11y ago
Necronomicon oaths work even if you don't swear them.
214.
by Eliezer 11y ago
Why simulate a very atypical world if the vast majority of intelligent-life developing worlds are much younger than ours?
215.
by Eliezer 11y ago
Potential YC Fellows are exhibiting their ideas or at best prototypes, not finished products with all possible user polish already applied.
216.
by Eliezer 11y ago
what in the name of god am I looking at
217.
by Eliezer 11y ago
By default, if somebody without extraordinary competence and paranoia tried to make an AGI that would implement government laws, in practice you'd just get something equivalent to a paperclip maximizer ( https://wiki.lesswron
218.
by Eliezer 11y ago
Who the heck was ever claiming that AlphaGo was an AGI? Straw argument much?
219.
by Eliezer 11y ago
http://www.infoworld.com/article/3043526/microsoft-windows/m... It's a mainstream journalist so mileage might vary quite highly, but probably a little more trustworthy than a Reddit thread. At first t
220.
by Eliezer 11y ago
If this plays out anything like it did in chess, in a few years we'll have very strong machine players that we can use to figure out with high confidence the quality of both players' moves.
221.
by Eliezer 11y ago
My (long) commentary here: https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10154018209759228 Sample: At this point it seems likely that Sedol is actually far outclassed by a superhuman player. The suspicion is that since
222.
by Eliezer 11y ago
> NGDP level targeting says during economic downturns, the government should fill the gap NO. It says the central bank should fill the gap, and that there's absolutely no point in the government's fiscal policy trying to fil
223.
by Eliezer 11y ago
I'm afraid you don't understand what the EMH says. It's not praising markets for being nice or useful or fair or good for the larger economy. EMH just says there are no publicly predictable price movements. "Efficient
224.
by Eliezer 11y ago
Because if you withdraw your demand for predictable reasons, other market actors say "Oh a predictably underpriced asset" and bid it back up to almost exactly the same price as before.
225.
by Eliezer 11y ago
That is NOT Demis saying not to worry, it's him saying the Terminator movie is a bad model.
226.
by Eliezer 11y ago
I'm sure there's someone on the planet. Which is a very different state of affairs from the one that would obtain if a well-known AI researcher had, say, made a $1500 public bet on AlphaGo winning, while also loudly declaring tha
227.
by Eliezer 11y ago
I was actually thinking primarily of distributed training time for the networks and playing time for the system, rather than the number of GPUs running this particular match. Also, I thought the number of GPUs in October was more on the or
228.
by Eliezer 11y ago
[Citation needed.] I for one did not say to not worry, and I bet $1500 vs. $2250 on Sedol winning the match before getting cold feet and arbing my outstanding bets down to $400 vs. $700.
229.
by Eliezer 11y ago
In case you're not aware, AlphaGo's key component is based on the same type of Deepmind system that learned to play dozens of Atari games, to superhuman levels, by watching the pixels, without any programmatic adaptation to the pa
230.
by Eliezer 11y ago
I'd guess more on the order of 10,000 GPUs.
231.
by Eliezer 11y ago
I don't think it's accurate to call AlphaGo 'improved tree search' the way that Deep Blue was improved tree search. You could with equal justice call it an improved neural net.
232.
by Eliezer 11y ago
It's not an improved tree search. Deepmind was almost pro level purely using the deep learning network before doing any Monte Carlo search. One way of looking at the significance of this is that it might tell us that relatively simple
233.
by Eliezer 11y ago
Worrying about the effect of strong AI on sexual relationships is like worrying about the effect on US-Chinese trade patterns if the Moon crashes into the Earth.
234.
by Eliezer 11y ago
Hi! This is the Market Economics Fairy! If you think that not investing in evil stocks can predictably lower the price of their cash flows, that violates the weak form of the efficient markets hypothesis! There's nothing else to say
235.
by Eliezer 11y ago
I know you mean well, but managing this sort of thing is something that's extremely different from person to person, very hard to get right, and often a source of great personal pain for people trying and failing. Please refrain or be
236.
by Eliezer 11y ago
If you save another dollar in the bank, that's another dollar of global debt that the bank owes you - it's how the accounting works.
237.
by Eliezer 11y ago
Update: For the record, I've now bet my $667 against a friend's $1000 that AlphaGo does not beat Sedol in March. Mentioned to help distinguish between the concepts of long-term problems and short-term problems.
238.
by Eliezer 11y ago
Skynet fights with lumbering robots and doesn't seem all that smart. If you want a picture to symbolize what we're worried about, don't imagine a picture of a Terminator robot with glowing red eyes; imagine a picture of the
239.
by Eliezer 11y ago
It seems to me that images and sounds are 'alike' in a way that doesn't (on its obvious face) expand to include Atari game strategies and evaluating Go positions. In which case generalizing across the latter gap is more impr
240.
by Eliezer 11y ago
The MCTS part of the algorithm per se doesn't seem super-important AFAIK from my brief read of the paper, except insofar as it shows that the 'neural' part of the algorithm was meshing well with a broadly consequentialist idi

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