Eliezer

26 ms·

241.
by Eliezer 11y ago
People occasionally ask me about signs that the remaining timeline might be short. It's very easy for nonprofessionals to take too much alarm too easily. Deep Blue beating Kasparov at chess was not such a sign. Robotic cars are no
242.
by Eliezer 11y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dartmouth_Conferences https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marvin_Minsky
243.
by Eliezer 11y ago
Uh, Minsky does?
244.
by Eliezer 11y ago
I can't imagine who deserves a black bar if Minsky doesn't, unless a grey bar would be more appropriate (Minsky was signed up for cryonics with Alcor, so he's not dead dead.)
245.
by Eliezer 11y ago
I had the chance to walk with Marvin Minsky down a hallway once, and I asked him what he thought of Bayesian reasoning. He said that it seemed to him like it was still part of a general trend away from tackling the central problem in AI. I
246.
by Eliezer 11y ago
No. In the real world there are tiny little behavioral complications like price-setters being more reluctant to lower prices than to raise them (especially wage-takers and wage prices) and people trying to hold more money as they feel less
247.
by Eliezer 11y ago
Why on Earth would you assume that MIRI assumes one GPU rather than 10,000 GPUs?
248.
by Eliezer 11y ago
Did micropayments suddenly become possible for the first time? Would this be a great service to charge 1000 users $0.10 each? Or for that matter, for selling ebooks?
249.
by Eliezer 11y ago
It's a good example of "no, seriously, AIs might figure out how to do weird stuff".
250.
by Eliezer 11y ago
Thank you greatly!
251.
by Eliezer 11y ago
That DRAM thing is getting headlined on the danger of boxing if there's a source. Source?
252.
by Eliezer 11y ago
The correct way to fix that by having the Federal Reserve lower interest rates or do quantitative easing - you create new medium of exchange until the volume of trade is going as fast as practical. The fiscal multiplier is zero when moneta
253.
by Eliezer 11y ago
> Inter-universal Teichmuller Theory That's not even close to being what that math is about.
254.
by Eliezer 11y ago
Speaking as someone who has, several times in his life, tried to create various things, to object to a pivot of this infinitesimal magnitude seems mad. By this standard every successful entrepreneur on the face of the planet is dishonest.
255.
by Eliezer 11y ago
They gave the money back. Regardless of surrounding events or further stories, you do not get to call them unprincipled.
256.
by Eliezer 11y ago
If you understand jasode's objection, it is not apparent from this reply.
257.
by Eliezer 12y ago
* The Fall of Doc Future - http://docfuture.tumblr.com/post/82363551272/fall-of-doc-fut... There are very few stories that strike me as having been 'natively' written for a reader like me; this is one of
258.
by Eliezer 12y ago
Producing this is my major current writing project. Meanwhile, http://intelligence.org/files/TechnicalAgenda.pdf
259.
by Eliezer 12y ago
1) Even if Paul can't predict you perfectly, it may be worth exploiting a probabilistic relation. 2) Can Paul see that you're not very self-aware? If Paul can't predict you at all, why does he believe that he can? 3) One
260.
by Eliezer 12y ago
I affirm that UDT has replaced TDT. Updateless Decision Theory is by Wei Dai and Vladimir Nesov with major contributions from several others.
261.
by Eliezer 12y ago
This is a relatively old manuscript, and I would recommend instead reading, or at least first reading: * http://intelligence.org/files/ProblemClassDominance.pdf * http://arxiv.org/abs/1401.5577 (T
262.
by Eliezer 12y ago
http://arxiv.org/abs/1401.5577
263.
by Eliezer 12y ago
I reply that you are blatantly lying about an easily checkable matter, and I request the interested observer to follow the link and check. (Wow. Am I missing something about status games that make the above open lie a good move for David G
264.
by Eliezer 12y ago
(FYI: If you follow qrendel's above link to /r/XKCD you'll see a detailed list of the false claims in the RationalWiki article as they existed at that time. After repeatedly being provided such lists, David Gerard claim
265.
by Eliezer 12y ago
I offered to post pre-written chapters at a higher speed (1 per 2 days instead 1 per 4 days) if a medium-sized charity I cofounded many years earlier made its annual donation target during a matching grant. Beware that HPMOR has a hatedom,
266.
by Eliezer 12y ago
The ending was explicitly foreshadowed in Ch. 1, including advance quotes. And, like, all the other early chapters. Nobody familiar with HPMOR could possibly take seriously the notion that this was a retcon.
267.
by Eliezer 12y ago
I do think it kinda helps to have read at least the first book or watched the first movie.
268.
by Eliezer 12y ago
Mileage varies! I'd like to affirm and congratulate your wise decision to stop reading at that point instead of continuing to torture yourself, and advise against anyone recommending parent to try again or go back. HPMOR is not goi
269.
Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality finished today(fanfiction.net)
267 points by Eliezer 12y ago|164 comments
270.
by Eliezer 12y ago
Yep. Wayback machine specifically, on sites whose robots.txt I can no longer control, and I'm sure the trolls have hard copies by now.

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