Dilettante_

9 ms·

31.
by Dilettante_ 4mo ago
Look at this hotshot who can't relate to massive losers! /j
32.
by Dilettante_ 4mo ago
You actually aren't: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prey_(2006_video_game)
33.
by Dilettante_ 4mo ago
You haven't been putting in any good-faith effort into having a "productive conversation" for at least three of your responses, setting up "This is how things are" with no attempt to support this with any arguments,
34.
by Dilettante_ 4mo ago
What's wrong with me is I'm autistic enough to expect people to be able to follow arguments. I did not say "There are no differences between Government Bonds and Prediction Markets", what I said was "Let's find
35.
by Dilettante_ 4mo ago
> if there was any more EV to be gained, people with more money than you would have exhausted it In a perfect market that everyone participates in and in which everyone has perfect information, but not down here in messy reality. Yo
36.
by Dilettante_ 4mo ago
The cryptocurency was also made with work. Hardware, electricity, and time were invested into the 1 unit of crypto. It's literally called Proof-Of-Work.
37.
by Dilettante_ 4mo ago
But that's about juicing the maximum amount out of each bet, not about the matter of simply winning or losing(which was what I was originally responding to). If any situation one doesn't take for all its worth is a loss then I agr
38.
by Dilettante_ 4mo ago
> just to be clear we are discussing gambling and not investing Where's the demarcation? The whole point of this sub-thread was "you absolutely can predict the outcome of some of these markets". If you do your due dilli
39.
by Dilettante_ 4mo ago
Can you help me better grasp this? My intuition is thus: Sure, if I'm going at it like a proper rationalist, I'd have to do things like calculate expected value or whatever(I fully admit my lack of foundational knowledge when it c
40.
by Dilettante_ 4mo ago
Not only did you miss the point of the conversation entirely, you're attacking a point I explicitly addressed in my comment. I well understand how the system works, ggps comment had me confused about their perspective.
41.
by Dilettante_ 4mo ago
Except you knew it was a lie, and they knew that you knew it was a lie, and you knew that they knew that you knew it was a lie. There was exactly zero deception. At a certain point it's marketing, advertising, copywriting, no
42.
by Dilettante_ 4mo ago
I go to the store and buy a pencil. Now I have apparently 1 pencil worth 1 fiat and someone else now has 1 fiat? What a preposterous notion!
43.
by Dilettante_ 4mo ago
And the prostitute really does love you and Your Call really Is Important To Us. That's a little snarkier than strictly appropriate in this forum but you cannot seriously and in good faith say that this is the first time you'v
44.
by Dilettante_ 4mo ago
You're sneaking in a prior assumption that people will act stupidly, and then make the argument "Well since they act stupidly they will have bad outcomes". That's like me claiming "Your startup is gonna fail, I ca
45.
by Dilettante_ 4mo ago
I'm confused by how you're modeling these markets. Let's say I am quite sure that the Steam Machine will cost more than $700 dollars, and I buy a 'yes' lot for 65 cents on the payed-out dollar, those are the odds at
46.
by Dilettante_ 4mo ago
You don't need Colossus-level compute or a genius-level IQ to evaluate the question "Will the steam machine cost more than $700 at release", or "Will 2026 be the hottest year on record".
47.
by Dilettante_ 4mo ago
Yeah, if I don't make my six-year-old drink with me every once in a while, he's never gonn learn to hold his liquour!
48.
by Dilettante_ 4mo ago
> Each applicant took the test under unknown conditions. You don't know [...] whether they walked in cold or worked with a tutor for months, or whether they came from a perfectly stable home life or found out the night before that t
49.
by Dilettante_ 4mo ago
"I'm the boss, you do what I tell you when I tell you. I say jump out the window, you ask which one."
50.
by Dilettante_ 4mo ago
But can I uninstall Meta Horizon OS and install Gentoo?
51.
by Dilettante_ 4mo ago
> you could perhaps make an argument that, just like weight decay, an apparent "anti-contribution" moves the learning trajectory along Was that not the joke?
52.
by Dilettante_ 4mo ago
Seeing Jonathan blow invoked and his response in the comments tickled me pink
53.
by Dilettante_ 4mo ago
Now there's a hack in the most delightful sense of the word
54.
by Dilettante_ 5mo ago
>and the pursuit of knowledge for its own sake Except when someone hands you a magic button that just gives you knowledge?[at least in the framing of this "warning"] Then it's about peoples' livelihoods, about &quot
55.
by Dilettante_ 5mo ago
If you were so smart, you'd find a way to be happy that includes your intellect. Curbing the suffering by numbing yourself is seeking comfort in retreating to the local optimum instead of continuing to search for a better one.
56.
by Dilettante_ 5mo ago
Thank you in turn for making the issue much more salient to me by explicitly connecting it to the gorilla/basketball experiment. This is definitely going into my "clippings".
57.
by Dilettante_ 6mo ago
>Also even the fixed game now is just a silly boring sandbox game, what makes it good is the story Insane statement
58.
by Dilettante_ 6mo ago
I remember using him for Garudyne, but other than that I had way better Personas.
59.
by Dilettante_ 6mo ago
A cat is fine, too.
60.
by Dilettante_ 6mo ago
I'm seriously starting to understand Toyotomi Hideyoshi's feelings... (/j)

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