Aron

32 ms·

301.
by Aron 17y ago
I am gonna make a note on only a small part of this, which is that 10 guilty men is different than 'an uncountable number of guilty men'. In other words, all principals have soft margins in practice.
302.
by Aron 17y ago
Highly unlikely. I might be able to beat the local bar's betting circle though.
303.
by Aron 17y ago
This is a great subject. Framing is essentially manipulating our bayesian priors. I am interested in the variation of this thought line that we can consciously vary our prior. I can do this with, for instance, a Necker cube. I can deliberat
304.
by Aron 17y ago
I don't believe this is good corporate strategy. The two are in a legal battle, and their future interests do cross. However, keep your friends close and your enemies closer. What exactly do they expect to gain from this?
305.
by Aron 17y ago
Sometimes I think Apple's product sales numbers are being maintained by the people that bought AAPL stock in the last few years.
306.
by Aron 17y ago
If I went to the effort of doing this I'd probably also find somewhere to bet real money on my picks.
307.
by Aron 17y ago
Definately. 12M Customers can add movies to their queue prior to it even coming out at the theater. I would wager this is substantially predictive. Netflix could either bet themselves, or as perhaps more likely, sell this information direct
308.
by Aron 17y ago
I went into reading this letter thinking that it would be another 'they destroyed my vision!' example. I'm pleasantly surprised as I have a fondness for the movie. I'm not an expert though, I just do eyes! Just eyes!
309.
by Aron 17y ago
This appears to be meetup #2.
310.
by Aron 17y ago
I have Samter's triad and would benefit from daily aspirin use (325mg+), but the side-effects concern me and my default position is to avoid medication.
311.
by Aron 17y ago
1) People are driven to accumulate achievements. 2) People are a bit confused about which ones lead to their long term happiness and prosperity, and which don't. 3) Owners of a service can increase the stickiness of their service by embeddi
312.
by Aron 17y ago
I'm winning this at the moment 57-0-2.
313.
by Aron 17y ago
That's just what it wants you to think.
314.
by Aron 17y ago
I find it unhelpful when a single questionable statistic is used to support a complicated thesis. In these cases, it would be better to listen to experts whose opinion is based on a significantly more complicated set of criteria. In that ca
315.
by Aron 17y ago
So let's setup a system whereby a customized email is sent to users every morning: "Today was a great day! You walked 25 miles before a thrilling and ultimately triumphant encounter with an aged caribou that took 30 minutes of fierce runnin
316.
by Aron 17y ago
I would think it cheaper to send 32 ounces of water from Earth to the moon in a Dasani bottle, than to dig it out of a ton of rock. Maybe we can make a really long straw and just suck it up from the oceans directly.
317.
by Aron 17y ago
"Generally the prediction comes as far as possible in the future while still being within the lifetime of the predictor." I don't recall the source of this paraphrase.
318.
by Aron 17y ago
I think even more interestingly, if he had simply repeated the attempt a few times I think the audience would have self-corrected.
319.
by Aron 17y ago
I've tried it on a treadmill. The need for callouses becomes exponential with respect to the speed you are running.
320.
by Aron 17y ago
My conspiracy theory: Options expire on friday. Watch the stock deflate next monday.
321.
by Aron 17y ago
It's coincidence. The contest has almost no implication to Netflix as a business.
322.
by Aron 17y ago
A rumor of this variety, when it has substance, tends to produce more of a lift in the stock. This one came from weak sources, and has been oft repeated in the past.
323.
by Aron 17y ago
I would put half of every penny I owned into that company at the valuation of 6.5B$. At least that's my opinion, after 30 seconds of consideration, about what I'd do with half of my wealth.
324.
by Aron 17y ago
I took a 6 week vacation through Col. and Utah, and would love to live in Col. I didn't know Boulder was so tech friendly (I knew it had some good culture). I'm gonna have to look into that.
325.
by Aron 17y ago
Yeah I've always been impressed with the quality of the site design at NYT. I suppose they decided it might have something to do with their future at one point.
326.
by Aron 17y ago
1) There's not enough information returned by the submission process (a single RMSE number per day). 2) The information you do get is on half of your submission, but it is the other half that counts. So you get no information back on that.
327.
by Aron 17y ago
The only candidate I think to make this a surprising finish is the 'Grand Prize Team' which has another of the long-time leaders 'Gravity' involved and has structured itself to accept any and all team members who care to join. Probably no o
328.
by Aron 17y ago
I suspect the worst thing to do is to talk glowingly about your progress or efforts to people who don't have the ability or desire to judge the accuracy of it.
329.
by Aron 17y ago
Ah....clever. thx.
330.
by Aron 17y ago
I have used an alternate shuffling approach in the past of my own naive creation, which is to go from 1-N items, each pass selecting a random number to swap the current position with. This would not require counting over missing items (thos

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