AbrahamParangi

14 ms·

151.
by AbrahamParangi 3y ago
Thank you for saying this. I think once things enter the culture war, normal and sensible people will get mugged by stupid, unexamined ideas so long as they’re on the right side of the culture war. So many conversations boil down to AI=BAD
152.
by AbrahamParangi 3y ago
It’s a failure fund, it pays for a skeleton team or third party contractor or whatever to keep the lights on. It’s intended to be actual insurance, where you pay the premiums forever based on some assessed cost of maintaining your product
153.
by AbrahamParangi 3y ago
In an ideal world, IoT and smart device manufacturers would be required to pay for “end of life” insurance. Ridiculous that a company can brick your devices by shutting down their servers and/or going out of business. Some people have
154.
by AbrahamParangi 3y ago
All fair statements
155.
by AbrahamParangi 3y ago
I will say it aligns them much better than authoritarianism, but also I’m not at all saying that democracy is bad or that because politicians are effectively sociopathic we should not have politicians. Famously, the worst system of governme
156.
by AbrahamParangi 3y ago
One of the fundamental mistakes that I think people make is to anthropomorphize things which do not actually act like regular humans. Corporations are the most obvious one because corporations are made of people but do not actually act like
157.
by AbrahamParangi 3y ago
No such thing as unfairly maligning a politician in my opinion.
158.
by AbrahamParangi 3y ago
You know, I think these sorts is scientific research explainers would be better if they actually just said what they did, what the insight was, what we can do now or what predictions we can now make. I understand the desire to make the disc
159.
by AbrahamParangi 3y ago
Here you go: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2212.08073.pdf The relevant part is the graph on the third page showing the helpfulness/harmlessness trade off curves. Also, I don’t believe I said that “censorship is logically
160.
by AbrahamParangi 3y ago
I believe this is a temporary state related to both the current level of capabilities and the cultural moment we’re in where “responsible censorship” is in amongst the cultural cohorts disproportionately responsible for training LLMs. I bel
161.
by AbrahamParangi 3y ago
The latter, presumably they didn't ask.
162.
by AbrahamParangi 3y ago
It's so ridiculously Orwellian (or should I say Atwoodian?) that I can't imagine anyone except in the most deranged countries is going to roll back access to birth control. The obvious long-term solution is that we do nothing and
163.
by AbrahamParangi 3y ago
The AMA lobbies to keep the supply of residency slots restricted* in 1997 the AMA successfully lobbied to freeze the funding for new residency slots at 1996 levels. Lobbying by the AMA is also no small part of why it's so hard for a fo
164.
by AbrahamParangi 3y ago
I think you're confusing my statement that "it could be done well" with "your team did it well"
165.
by AbrahamParangi 3y ago
While I understand that some will disagree, it’s not like there’s an objective standard against which we are measuring both the AI and the human counselors to begin with. Without a standard it’s just anecdotes and with a standard there’s cl
166.
by AbrahamParangi 3y ago
Access to doctors is limited by the AMA which functions as a cabal or traditional guild: controlling the supply of doctors to maintain high salaries by insulating them from supply and demand (while also controlling or at least pretending to
167.
by AbrahamParangi 3y ago
If you extend rationality to also consider that even if the rationality of a circumstance is computable, you may not personally have the computational resources to determine it (what may be rational for a human may not seem straightforward
168.
by AbrahamParangi 3y ago
It’s not at all clear automaticity even exists in a way that improves your understanding of the world. You can assume people do things because they’re basically rational with consideration for their values, which may be axiomatic and their
169.
by AbrahamParangi 3y ago
This is an uncharitable view. You don’t owe anyone charity but I would ask you to consider it if only for the sake of discussion.
170.
by AbrahamParangi 3y ago
In my view the fundamental disagreement between progressivism and conservatism is whether or not there are tradeoffs at play, whether or not we can have our cake and eat it too. A conservative is inclined to say that we can't and a pro
171.
by AbrahamParangi 3y ago
And the part where Russian soldiers take the server offline because they know the data is fake and they want to avoid a panic… What? If the Russians are doing it they can just stop If the Ukrainians are doing it the Russians don’t know they
172.
by AbrahamParangi 3y ago
What about the woolly mammoth, steppe mammoth, straight-tusked elephant, European hippopotamuses, aurochs, steppe bison, cave lion, cave bear, cave hyena, Homotherium, Irish elk, giant polar bears, woolly rhinoceros, Merck's rhinoceros
173.
by AbrahamParangi 3y ago
I am curious whether anyone who defends ostracizing this guy similarly thinks it’s reasonable to deny jobs to formerly incarcerated persons.
174.
by AbrahamParangi 3y ago
Hold on though, because the correlation between “human arrival” and “megafauna extinction” is extremely high. The timeline of megafaunal extinctions goes: Africa, then Eurasia, then Australia, then North America, and finally South America.
175.
by AbrahamParangi 3y ago
I think the general category that malthusianism falls into is that it is a good-sounding theory with a very poor track record of accuracy. It is worth thinking about why people still believe these sorts of ideas despite Malthusians being ab
176.
by AbrahamParangi 3y ago
Amusing addendum, in order for this asteroid to have a 5Kt impact energy it would need to be traveling at around 50 mph as it impacts earth. A typical impact velocity would be something closer to 30,000 mph.
177.
by AbrahamParangi 3y ago
This seems like it's off by ~6 orders of magnitude (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_event )
178.
by AbrahamParangi 3y ago
At 400m diameter we should expect an impact energy of ~3Gt, which would be one of the most energetic events in human history, if not the most. For a comparison, the Lake Toba eruption (which is suspected of causing homo sapiens to almost go
179.
by AbrahamParangi 3y ago
Asking about convergence speed in terms of "steps" or anything that isn't FLOPS or wall clock training speed is sometimes academically interesting but encourages "hiding the ball" so to speak. You can in general hid
180.
by AbrahamParangi 3y ago
I would take a complementary side to this bet, in that I think it's relevant that it's extremely, extremely extremely hard to improve upon ADAM (Adaptive Moment Estimation) in terms of FLOPS-till-convergence. That this is so hard

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