7 ms·

I don't know enough to have a solid opinion, but at a surface level I can see enormous value in the F35. The growing threat against western militaries are asym

I don't know enough to have a solid opinion, but at a surface level I can see enormous value in the F35. The growing threat against western militaries are asymmetric threats, and the US's modus operandi for quite a while has been to empower the carrier strike groups to project power over wherever these threats may start heating up. If a carrier has to carry a bomber and two escorts and now an F35 can be 80% as good as each of those at their respective task but take up < 33% of the space, that seems valuable. How does this whole F35 thing pan out when logistics like that are taken into account?

nickpsecurity 11y ago
The easy way to do it is to just ask, "When have we been unable to destroy enemy vehicles or structures due to extra planes?" We did it in Iraq faster than ever with our current configuration of various, specialized aircraft. What you're mentioning can be done with F-18's and A-10's against most countries. The top opponents are investing in, again, aircraft specialized for certain types of missions that will dominate F-35 in any performance test. China's F-35 is already better than ours for instance. I'm not sure if they sent Lockheed a thanks for all the free R&D. ;)
- threeseed 11y ago
  > China's F-35 is already better than ours for instance Where is the evidence for this ? Everything I've read about the J-31 has said that it isn't a match for the F-35 at all and actually isn't even a program yet (just a prototype has been built).
  - nickpsecurity 11y ago
    Might be true. There's little to draw on for either side of the argument. Original article I cited was the basis for my claim where it showed they had eliminated weaknesses in F-35 in their clone. That's already better for short-range. Whether it's better for long-range will depend on their detection and missile tech. Or how much of ours they stole and improved on.
    - engi_nerd 11y ago
      Their only evidence was their own claims. Unsubstantiated in any public source. Please please stop taking "maybes" and speculation and presenting it as fact. That's what irks me about David Axe. I'm really confused, because I have read through some of your other commentary here on programming and security issues and you seem quite intelligent and solid there. So why spread so much FUD about something that's outside of your wheelhouse? You're certainly allowed and encouraged to ask questions, investigate, etc, but you're presenting yourself as an expert on this sort of thing when you aren't.
      - nickpsecurity 11y ago
        I am operating outside my expertise: security and system engineering as you noted. Having to rely on third parties way more than I like. One seems to misrepresent the situation to push his personal success. You've illustrated this pretty well on F-16 case. Another systematically misrepresents the necessity/effectiveness of programs to rake in billions of dollars and has been caught in such schemes many times. Gets away with it because Congress has lots of votes/stock in defense and brass often get hired by them near retirement. I'm not liking my options haha. You have a point, though, in that my own bias against the wasteful program caused me to leverage sources without enough verification. I need to be more careful about that in near future. Thanks for calling me on it.
        engi_nerd 11y ago
        This is why I love HN. Good reasonable conversation on the internet. It's hard enough for me to find in real life. The internet, doubly so.
        nickpsecurity 11y ago
        Yeah, it's rare and why I've been spending more time than I can justify here. ;) The last site that was similar was Schneier's blog where I put most of my essays and designs on for public benefit. Aside from the large audience, the blog's moderation focused on keeping things civil and it attracted top notch security engineers for solid, peer review. Post-Snowden, too many of Reddit and Slashdot crowd ended up there with what results from that. So, I looked around and ended up here. Been fun. Least my stuff's still there to benefit whoever.
- adventured 11y ago
  You couldn't be more wrong. China's F-35 clone isn't even an actual program at this point. It's half mock-up, half vaporware. There's zero evidence they have any battlefield ready capabilities in place, nor that they can mass produce their plane.
  - nickpsecurity 11y ago
    I hope that's true. Otherwise, it would mean our F-35 program was so thoroughly infiltrated and their engineers so much better that they got a passable prototype in record time. So, I really hope you're right and there's a decent chance you are.
    - engi_nerd 11y ago
      Once I had a college professor who said, "Plagiarize, plagiarize, let nothing escape your eyes." He meant it! Copying assignments in his class was acceptable. But at the end of the semester, he would come by and talk to you and see what you really knew. If he found you lacking in understanding, you failed. You still had to know the material. Blind copying would get you to the final examination, but it wouldn't allow you to pass it. Any aircraft the Chinese make will presumably be put to some examination, some day. Will they be able to pass? Your guess is as good as anyone's.
      - nickpsecurity 11y ago
        "Good artists create. Great artists steal." (Steve Jobs, inspired by Picasso) Put that to good use after a visiting some true innovators at Xerox Palo Alto. ;) Far as espionage, I lack the source on hand but one said what they got in a year from U.S. companies paid for their whole intelligence program in what they got on it.
- plonh 11y ago
  Considering what happened in Iraq, maybe our definition of winning isn't well chosen.
  - nickpsecurity 11y ago
    Agree 100%. I'll add that maybe the goals aren't well-chosen, either.
alkonaut 11y ago
The asymmetric threat should make the carrier extinct pretty soon, and this should have been taken into account even during the JSF project. The carrier is what the major battleship was in WW2: a basket for too many eggs.
- nickpsecurity 11y ago
  No need to speculate: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002 U.S. strategy and gear were totally defeated by an asymmetric response. Seems our tricks only win against 3rd world countries we hit. Add any brains, like we saw in Vietnam insurgency, to get a different scenario. That they then rigged it to make our failed strategy look good says even worse about our military leadership and outlook if we go against strong opposition in the future.
  - pinaceae 11y ago
    that thing has been debunked so often, it gets boring. motorcycle couriers operating at lightspeed, with no losses? etc etc etc.
    - nickpsecurity 11y ago
      News to me. Where? Link?
    - fnordfnordfnord 11y ago
      The Zerg rush works. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/12/washington/12navy.html?_r=0 http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/12/washington/12navy.html?_r=... >that thing has been debunked so often... motorcycle couriers operating at lightspeed got a link?
      - pinaceae 11y ago
        http://www.reddit.com/r/todayilearned/comments/n230b/til_a_war_game_was_conducted_in_2002_which http://www.reddit.com/r/todayilearned/comments/n230b/til_a_w... the original papers are to be found in mil resources.
fnordfnordfnord 11y ago
>How does this whole F35 thing pan out when logistics like that are taken into account? Pretty poorly given the long mission turnaround time and otherwise low projected availability/readiness.

nickpsecurity 11y ago

The easy way to do it is to just ask, "When have we been unable to destroy enemy vehicles or structures due to extra planes?" We did it in Iraq faster than ever with our current configuration of various, specialized aircraft. What you're mentioning can be done with F-18's and A-10's against most countries. The top opponents are investing in, again, aircraft specialized for certain types of missions that will dominate F-35 in any performance test. China's F-35 is already better than ours for instance. I'm not sure if they sent Lockheed a thanks for all the free R&D. ;)

threeseed 11y ago
> China's F-35 is already better than ours for instance Where is the evidence for this ? Everything I've read about the J-31 has said that it isn't a match for the F-35 at all and actually isn't even a program yet (just a prototype has been built).
- nickpsecurity 11y ago
  Might be true. There's little to draw on for either side of the argument. Original article I cited was the basis for my claim where it showed they had eliminated weaknesses in F-35 in their clone. That's already better for short-range. Whether it's better for long-range will depend on their detection and missile tech. Or how much of ours they stole and improved on.
  - engi_nerd 11y ago
    Their only evidence was their own claims. Unsubstantiated in any public source. Please please stop taking "maybes" and speculation and presenting it as fact. That's what irks me about David Axe. I'm really confused, because I have read through some of your other commentary here on programming and security issues and you seem quite intelligent and solid there. So why spread so much FUD about something that's outside of your wheelhouse? You're certainly allowed and encouraged to ask questions, investigate, etc, but you're presenting yourself as an expert on this sort of thing when you aren't.
    - nickpsecurity 11y ago
      I am operating outside my expertise: security and system engineering as you noted. Having to rely on third parties way more than I like. One seems to misrepresent the situation to push his personal success. You've illustrated this pretty well on F-16 case. Another systematically misrepresents the necessity/effectiveness of programs to rake in billions of dollars and has been caught in such schemes many times. Gets away with it because Congress has lots of votes/stock in defense and brass often get hired by them near retirement. I'm not liking my options haha. You have a point, though, in that my own bias against the wasteful program caused me to leverage sources without enough verification. I need to be more careful about that in near future. Thanks for calling me on it.
      - engi_nerd 11y ago
        This is why I love HN. Good reasonable conversation on the internet. It's hard enough for me to find in real life. The internet, doubly so.
        nickpsecurity 11y ago
        Yeah, it's rare and why I've been spending more time than I can justify here. ;) The last site that was similar was Schneier's blog where I put most of my essays and designs on for public benefit. Aside from the large audience, the blog's moderation focused on keeping things civil and it attracted top notch security engineers for solid, peer review. Post-Snowden, too many of Reddit and Slashdot crowd ended up there with what results from that. So, I looked around and ended up here. Been fun. Least my stuff's still there to benefit whoever.
adventured 11y ago
You couldn't be more wrong. China's F-35 clone isn't even an actual program at this point. It's half mock-up, half vaporware. There's zero evidence they have any battlefield ready capabilities in place, nor that they can mass produce their plane.
- nickpsecurity 11y ago
  I hope that's true. Otherwise, it would mean our F-35 program was so thoroughly infiltrated and their engineers so much better that they got a passable prototype in record time. So, I really hope you're right and there's a decent chance you are.
  - engi_nerd 11y ago
    Once I had a college professor who said, "Plagiarize, plagiarize, let nothing escape your eyes." He meant it! Copying assignments in his class was acceptable. But at the end of the semester, he would come by and talk to you and see what you really knew. If he found you lacking in understanding, you failed. You still had to know the material. Blind copying would get you to the final examination, but it wouldn't allow you to pass it. Any aircraft the Chinese make will presumably be put to some examination, some day. Will they be able to pass? Your guess is as good as anyone's.
    - nickpsecurity 11y ago
      "Good artists create. Great artists steal." (Steve Jobs, inspired by Picasso) Put that to good use after a visiting some true innovators at Xerox Palo Alto. ;) Far as espionage, I lack the source on hand but one said what they got in a year from U.S. companies paid for their whole intelligence program in what they got on it.
plonh 11y ago
Considering what happened in Iraq, maybe our definition of winning isn't well chosen.
- nickpsecurity 11y ago
  Agree 100%. I'll add that maybe the goals aren't well-chosen, either.

alkonaut 11y ago

The asymmetric threat should make the carrier extinct pretty soon, and this should have been taken into account even during the JSF project. The carrier is what the major battleship was in WW2: a basket for too many eggs.

nickpsecurity 11y ago
No need to speculate: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002 U.S. strategy and gear were totally defeated by an asymmetric response. Seems our tricks only win against 3rd world countries we hit. Add any brains, like we saw in Vietnam insurgency, to get a different scenario. That they then rigged it to make our failed strategy look good says even worse about our military leadership and outlook if we go against strong opposition in the future.
- pinaceae 11y ago
  that thing has been debunked so often, it gets boring. motorcycle couriers operating at lightspeed, with no losses? etc etc etc.
  - nickpsecurity 11y ago
    News to me. Where? Link?
  - fnordfnordfnord 11y ago
    The Zerg rush works. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/12/washington/12navy.html?_r=0 http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/12/washington/12navy.html?_r=... >that thing has been debunked so often... motorcycle couriers operating at lightspeed got a link?
    - pinaceae 11y ago
      http://www.reddit.com/r/todayilearned/comments/n230b/til_a_war_game_was_conducted_in_2002_which http://www.reddit.com/r/todayilearned/comments/n230b/til_a_w... the original papers are to be found in mil resources.

fnordfnordfnord 11y ago

>How does this whole F35 thing pan out when logistics like that are taken into account? Pretty poorly given the long mission turnaround time and otherwise low projected availability/readiness.