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And now this becomes even more relevant: http://waitbutwhy.com/2014/05/fermi-paradox.html http://waitbutwhy.com/2014/05/fermi-paradox.html

by MrBra 11y ago

DanielBMarkham 11y ago
Let's assume the Great Filter is in front of us. Perhaps biological life eventually creates machine life and then either withers away while machines take over, or fizzles out along the machines it made. Let's also assume that all these other lifeforms, like us, realize that the galaxy is full of livable worlds. There's no FTL, and nobody wants to take over a planet where life has a chance of making it past the filter. This would mean that the only contact would be machine probes who left their civilizations tens of thousands of years into the past. Such probes would be programmed not to initiate contact with worlds with life on them. Instead, collect some data and leave, moving on to other planets and systems. If this is the case, heck, we might have been visited by millions of other intelligent civilizations. The only thing we'd have to show for it would be perhaps the appearance of truly mysterious lights in the sky every decade or so. If you want to stretch your imagination a bit, perhaps a Rendlesham Forest-type incident. I seriously doubt biological life is very interesting to any other civilizations. I doubt they communicate in any way similar to the ways we communicate, and I feel that any direct contact would be so removed and non-reproducible to be useless. There are a lot of hidden assumptions you have to make for Fermi's Paradox to truly be a paradox. (Same goes for my argument, of course.)
- binarymax 11y ago
  Phew, I'm glad you threw in that last sentence! The largest assumption you made is that biological life evolves the same on every earth-like planet...and that all life from those planets fits our definition of biological. One of the things I love about good sci-fi is that it challenges these assumptions. I'll throw one out there as an example many would know: the crystalline entity in Star Trek TNG.
elorant 11y ago
"They're made out of meat" http://www.terrybisson.com/page6/page6.html http://www.terrybisson.com/page6/page6.html
- MrBra 11y ago
  Brilliant!
- Jemaclus 11y ago
  This has always been one of my favorites. I love it all over again every time I read it! So creative -- and hilarious!
api 11y ago
Ok. I'll be the crazy person. At what point do we consider that at least some percentage of the more credible and interesting UFO sightings might be evidence of visitation? We now know with a high level of certainty that earth like worlds are common, and we also know that a high percentage are older than Earth. That means more time for the evolution of intelligence and the growth of knowledge in any civilization. Interstellar flight is hard, but is technically possible with technology contemporary with The Beatles: look up Project Orion and read about Dyson's thermonuclear performance estimates... And if that is possible with 60s tech, there are surely better ways. Of course we are also assuming no undiscovered physics, which is an arrogant and naive assumption given that we haven't been doing this for very long. The UFO topic is verboten largely because of all the bizarre and often silly folklore and quasi-religion that surrounds it, but it isn't hard to strip that off. For the longest time I was a climate change skeptic because of a distaste for green ideology, but then I realized that the physics of atmospheric CO2 is utterly unrelated to how humans process issues culturally. One potential answer to the Fermi paradox is that there isn't one. Life is common, intelligent life is common, and occasionally something stops by. Of course "then why do they not land in the middle of a city?" But turn that around: why would they? It would place both them and us at risk. I can think of many rational reasons not to. Edit: not arguing it is so, just thst it is possible. The more extrasolar planets in habitable zones we find, the less I think we should laugh.
- trhway 11y ago
  >Ok. I'll be the crazy person. let me do it. >At what point do we consider that at least some percentage of the more credible and interesting UFO sightings might be evidence of visitation? there is an extremely well documented case of a [naively inexperienced] alien observer who went off SOPs trying to help and nudge a species of talking apes through [obvious to higher races] obstacles on the way of the species' progress - i mean Jesus. Well, the apes unfortunately didn't get it ... such attempts are always futile and the more experienced colleagues were trying to explain that to the young observer all the way.

And now this becomes even more relevant: http://waitbutwhy.com/2014/05/fermi-paradox.html http://waitbutwhy.com/2014/05/fermi-paradox.html

by MrBra 11y ago

And now this becomes even more relevant: http://waitbutwhy.com/2014/05/fermi-paradox.html http://waitbutwhy.com/2014/05/fermi-paradox.html

DanielBMarkham 11y ago

Let's assume the Great Filter is in front of us. Perhaps biological life eventually creates machine life and then either withers away while machines take over, or fizzles out along the machines it made. Let's also assume that all these other lifeforms, like us, realize that the galaxy is full of livable worlds. There's no FTL, and nobody wants to take over a planet where life has a chance of making it past the filter. This would mean that the only contact would be machine probes who left their civilizations tens of thousands of years into the past. Such probes would be programmed not to initiate contact with worlds with life on them. Instead, collect some data and leave, moving on to other planets and systems. If this is the case, heck, we might have been visited by millions of other intelligent civilizations. The only thing we'd have to show for it would be perhaps the appearance of truly mysterious lights in the sky every decade or so. If you want to stretch your imagination a bit, perhaps a Rendlesham Forest-type incident. I seriously doubt biological life is very interesting to any other civilizations. I doubt they communicate in any way similar to the ways we communicate, and I feel that any direct contact would be so removed and non-reproducible to be useless. There are a lot of hidden assumptions you have to make for Fermi's Paradox to truly be a paradox. (Same goes for my argument, of course.)

binarymax 11y ago
Phew, I'm glad you threw in that last sentence! The largest assumption you made is that biological life evolves the same on every earth-like planet...and that all life from those planets fits our definition of biological. One of the things I love about good sci-fi is that it challenges these assumptions. I'll throw one out there as an example many would know: the crystalline entity in Star Trek TNG.

elorant 11y ago

"They're made out of meat" http://www.terrybisson.com/page6/page6.html http://www.terrybisson.com/page6/page6.html

MrBra 11y ago
Brilliant!
Jemaclus 11y ago
This has always been one of my favorites. I love it all over again every time I read it! So creative -- and hilarious!

api 11y ago

Ok. I'll be the crazy person. At what point do we consider that at least some percentage of the more credible and interesting UFO sightings might be evidence of visitation? We now know with a high level of certainty that earth like worlds are common, and we also know that a high percentage are older than Earth. That means more time for the evolution of intelligence and the growth of knowledge in any civilization. Interstellar flight is hard, but is technically possible with technology contemporary with The Beatles: look up Project Orion and read about Dyson's thermonuclear performance estimates... And if that is possible with 60s tech, there are surely better ways. Of course we are also assuming no undiscovered physics, which is an arrogant and naive assumption given that we haven't been doing this for very long. The UFO topic is verboten largely because of all the bizarre and often silly folklore and quasi-religion that surrounds it, but it isn't hard to strip that off. For the longest time I was a climate change skeptic because of a distaste for green ideology, but then I realized that the physics of atmospheric CO2 is utterly unrelated to how humans process issues culturally. One potential answer to the Fermi paradox is that there isn't one. Life is common, intelligent life is common, and occasionally something stops by. Of course "then why do they not land in the middle of a city?" But turn that around: why would they? It would place both them and us at risk. I can think of many rational reasons not to. Edit: not arguing it is so, just thst it is possible. The more extrasolar planets in habitable zones we find, the less I think we should laugh.

trhway 11y ago
>Ok. I'll be the crazy person. let me do it. >At what point do we consider that at least some percentage of the more credible and interesting UFO sightings might be evidence of visitation? there is an extremely well documented case of a [naively inexperienced] alien observer who went off SOPs trying to help and nudge a species of talking apes through [obvious to higher races] obstacles on the way of the species' progress - i mean Jesus. Well, the apes unfortunately didn't get it ... such attempts are always futile and the more experienced colleagues were trying to explain that to the young observer all the way.