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https://www.estimize.com/aapl https://www.estimize.com/aapl it's pretty amazing how spot on the estimates are to the actual figures for AAPL compared to other

https://www.estimize.com/aapl https://www.estimize.com/aapl it's pretty amazing how spot on the estimates are to the actual figures for AAPL compared to other stocks. The reason it's down is probably because there was no surprise and the numbers came a bit shy of what the estimates were but regardless, I view it as an overreaction. My long term outlook on iPhone and Apple is positive, they've essentially established a monopoly on the luxury market segment which is always a growing market with fat margins while Samsung is feeling the squeeze from Chinese phone makers undercutting them (http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/personal/2014/10/07/samsung-quarterly-profit-down/16861445/ http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/personal/2014/10/07/samsu...), it has a similar tone to giants that have fallen (Motorola, Nokia failed to stay relevant after increased market entrants that ate into their margins). Samsung's immediate response will be to continue to spend big bucks on R&D since they can't copy Apple anymore while nothing stops Chinese companies from copying Samsung (as Korean conglomerates behave ruthlessly on it's home turf, so do the Chinese) and reaping the benefits of piggybacking. Also growing wages and demand for increased social welfare in Korea evidenced by the foul cry over the recent merger of Samsung's holding companies, screwing over it's investors and seriously putting a smear on South Korea's corporate governance, market trust is low (message is clear, if you invest in Korea, you can't fight the powerful conglomerate families or the government which share the same bed, see Morningstar) from the failure of government to lay down the law (so much for President Park's promise to reign in the Chaebols or conglomerate families). The downfall of Samsung might play right into Apple's hands if they launch a surprise attack and release a phone in this segment with cheaper hardware but with the same good software. Considering Samsung has a repeated history of copying market innovators, undercutting to win significant market share, and dragging out the legal process until finally settling, failure to break into the luxury market will be the downfall for Samsung's phones in an increasingly decreasing margin game. All of this is great for Apple. edit: Someone accuses me of being an Apple fanboy when I'm an Android user happy with his Motorola phone, I don't see why that changes anything. Sent from my Android phone.

brokentone 11y ago
IMHO there is an incentive for wall st to be a bit cautious on their estimates (better to beat, then everyone is happy, vs a miss in which a huge pullback occurs and the analysts are questioned). There is not the same incentive on estimize. 9/10 estimize's estimates are slightly higher than the street, which more often than not is correct.
notNow 11y ago
The saturation point of the smartphone market is near and Apple knows this very well and the novelty factor for their products is diminishing and people are looking for a new thing to experience rather than the old Apple can deliver. What's with the Samsung bashing on an Apple thread?
- ethanbond 11y ago
  Where's evidence of people looking for a new thing to experience? Apple's great power is you know exactly what to expect every time you open the box, even if you have no clue what the product itself is.
  - notNow 11y ago
    Koolaid much or you have skin in the stock market game?
    - ethanbond 11y ago
      Neither, I'm just asking for evidence that people are moving away from Apple when a) people have been saying the same thing for years and b) the company has only grown in value.
    - curiousjorge 11y ago
      I think you can draw some parallel if you look at the car luxury market, people are more likely to keep buying the brand they like vs. non-luxury market where people are inclined to get the most value for less. Guy purchasing M5 for his daily driver and an M class for his wife isn't probably looking to drive it for the next 20 years vs. a single mom purchasing a van will be driving it for the next decade or so. Market saturation calls for distinguishing yourself, and it's tougher to do this in the lower end market vs. luxury. Cars are everywhere, yet Ferrari & Lamborghini are constantly finding new customers in emerging markets. This hasn't been easy for the rest who are fighting each other over the average joe. There are so many players on this level and stakes are high especially because the margins are thin. Failing to stay relevant will drive them out. Failing to deliver across the board will not suffice. One reason Hyundai has been so successful here is that they offer a lot more value for the price to the average driver. Today, the brand has improved, car has improved as American cars have. In fact, the industry has improved a great deal because people in this segment is very demanding but without the rewards of high margins a luxury or supercar producer might enjoy. As your income grows, your taste begins to change, and luxury brands know this very well. Do you really need a button that gives you extra 200 HP on demand? Will embedding diamonds in your dashboard increase km/L? The typical questions a non-luxury buyer will ask won't apply to those that demand the absolute best. One reason might be social hierarchial reasons, if you were a hedge fund manager and you were golfing with your other hedge fund buddies equally looking to impress clients and sell image of success, an Acura isn't just going to cut it.
tosseraccount 11y ago
Apple has moved from traditional tech to consumer devices. College kids may one day decide Apple is not cool.
- cmgreen 11y ago
  Maybe but they've executed a great vendor lock in strategy for kids. Apple Purchases are shared with child accounts as is Family Sharing in Apple Music. Transition costs are going to be very high for those that are part of the "iPad mini is my first computer" generation.
- danielrhodes 11y ago
  Are college kids driving that market or are you just making an assumption?
  - tosseraccount 11y ago
    College kids are the arbiters of cool.
    - threeseed 11y ago
      The fact you believe this shows you that you should really stop acting like you understand what is cool. The correct answer would have been that each age demographic has its own culture and trends. And even more so people aren't caring what other groups think or do.
- Bud 11y ago
  Just standard trolling about how Apple's success is transitory, without merit, and due to people finding them "cool" for no rational reason.
  - tosseraccount 11y ago
    (I'll bite) Consider this : http://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec http://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec (finviz: a heatmap visualization of the stock market ) Note that Apple is in "Consumer Goods", not "Technology". At least one market analyst thinks their competitors are Proctor & Gamble and Coca Cola.
puranjay 11y ago
I feel that for a lot of people, cheaper Android makes like Xianomi are just stepping stones until they have the cash to buy Apple That's a good position to be in for any company.

brokentone 11y ago

IMHO there is an incentive for wall st to be a bit cautious on their estimates (better to beat, then everyone is happy, vs a miss in which a huge pullback occurs and the analysts are questioned). There is not the same incentive on estimize. 9/10 estimize's estimates are slightly higher than the street, which more often than not is correct.

notNow 11y ago

The saturation point of the smartphone market is near and Apple knows this very well and the novelty factor for their products is diminishing and people are looking for a new thing to experience rather than the old Apple can deliver. What's with the Samsung bashing on an Apple thread?

ethanbond 11y ago
Where's evidence of people looking for a new thing to experience? Apple's great power is you know exactly what to expect every time you open the box, even if you have no clue what the product itself is.
- notNow 11y ago
  Koolaid much or you have skin in the stock market game?
  - ethanbond 11y ago
    Neither, I'm just asking for evidence that people are moving away from Apple when a) people have been saying the same thing for years and b) the company has only grown in value.
  - curiousjorge 11y ago
    I think you can draw some parallel if you look at the car luxury market, people are more likely to keep buying the brand they like vs. non-luxury market where people are inclined to get the most value for less. Guy purchasing M5 for his daily driver and an M class for his wife isn't probably looking to drive it for the next 20 years vs. a single mom purchasing a van will be driving it for the next decade or so. Market saturation calls for distinguishing yourself, and it's tougher to do this in the lower end market vs. luxury. Cars are everywhere, yet Ferrari & Lamborghini are constantly finding new customers in emerging markets. This hasn't been easy for the rest who are fighting each other over the average joe. There are so many players on this level and stakes are high especially because the margins are thin. Failing to stay relevant will drive them out. Failing to deliver across the board will not suffice. One reason Hyundai has been so successful here is that they offer a lot more value for the price to the average driver. Today, the brand has improved, car has improved as American cars have. In fact, the industry has improved a great deal because people in this segment is very demanding but without the rewards of high margins a luxury or supercar producer might enjoy. As your income grows, your taste begins to change, and luxury brands know this very well. Do you really need a button that gives you extra 200 HP on demand? Will embedding diamonds in your dashboard increase km/L? The typical questions a non-luxury buyer will ask won't apply to those that demand the absolute best. One reason might be social hierarchial reasons, if you were a hedge fund manager and you were golfing with your other hedge fund buddies equally looking to impress clients and sell image of success, an Acura isn't just going to cut it.

tosseraccount 11y ago

Apple has moved from traditional tech to consumer devices. College kids may one day decide Apple is not cool.

cmgreen 11y ago
Maybe but they've executed a great vendor lock in strategy for kids. Apple Purchases are shared with child accounts as is Family Sharing in Apple Music. Transition costs are going to be very high for those that are part of the "iPad mini is my first computer" generation.
danielrhodes 11y ago
Are college kids driving that market or are you just making an assumption?
- tosseraccount 11y ago
  College kids are the arbiters of cool.
  - threeseed 11y ago
    The fact you believe this shows you that you should really stop acting like you understand what is cool. The correct answer would have been that each age demographic has its own culture and trends. And even more so people aren't caring what other groups think or do.
Bud 11y ago
Just standard trolling about how Apple's success is transitory, without merit, and due to people finding them "cool" for no rational reason.
- tosseraccount 11y ago
  (I'll bite) Consider this : http://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec http://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec (finviz: a heatmap visualization of the stock market ) Note that Apple is in "Consumer Goods", not "Technology". At least one market analyst thinks their competitors are Proctor & Gamble and Coca Cola.

puranjay 11y ago

I feel that for a lot of people, cheaper Android makes like Xianomi are just stepping stones until they have the cash to buy Apple That's a good position to be in for any company.