4 ms·

I'd love to see this post as I'm securely in the "lottery is a tax on the desperate" camp. I'd love a reason to stop disparaging my father's mega-millions drea

by gooseus 11y ago

I'd love to see this post as I'm securely in the "lottery is a tax on the desperate" camp. I'd love a reason to stop disparaging my father's mega-millions dreams and the dozens of people that frequent my local 7-11 for countless scratch-offs everyday. I have a gut feeling that a study of the odds/payout ratio of being apart of any given startup acquisition is better than what you'd get from any given lottery/scratch off... though I'm not taking into account the associated costs. How many tickets/scratch-offs is an 80 hour week for a full stack engineer worth? So, here's me hoping you weren't being facetious.

toomuchtodo 11y ago
> I have a gut feeling that a study of the odds/payout ratio of being apart of any given startup acquisition is better than what you'd get from any given lottery/scratch off... though I'm not taking into account the associated costs. How many tickets/scratch-offs is an 80 hour week for a full stack engineer worth? This is the study I'm interested in performing. > So, here's me hoping you weren't being facetious. Not at all! I'd rather buy X lottery tickets on the most advantageous schedule, enjoy working 32-35 hours a week, and spend the rest of my time with family, on hobbies, or traveling. I'm not going to fault someone for working 80-100 hours a week if that's what they enjoy doing, but if they're doing it to get rich, let's see if the data supports those odds.
- tjradcliffe 11y ago
  This is a really interesting comparison. I've done the startup thing (unsuccessfully) and know a fair number of other people who have as well (including one who came within one business decision of being a millionaire but who couldn't convince his partners to accept the buyout offer they were being given.) When you consider reward/(risk*effort) rather than just risk/reward it wouldn't surprise me if lotteries came out on top. But... the thing you don't get from a lottery is a statement like this: my life-partner and I met through PoF almost ten years ago, and I will be forever grateful to Marcus for building the site that made that possible. We had both been on other sites previously, and we had actually seen each other's profiles on other sites in the year or two before we met while we were both in a post-divorce dating phase, but PoF had the right mix of features that it happened to be where we actually connected with each other. As I recall, I saved her profile for later consideration at one point, and the site (unbeknownst to me) notified users when that happened, so she looked at my profile and contacted me with something along the lines of, "Don't hesitate, I won't be here long!" I didn't, and she wasn't. Now, I agree that accolades from strangers doesn't necessarily balance off time not spent with your family, but it is another factor in the overall equation, knowing you've made the world a better place for a lot of people.
  - toomuchtodo 11y ago
    I'm not discounting the value that PoF provided to its users. That's important, and to be commended. Do what you enjoy, ensure someone is getting value out of it, but don't spend too much of your life on any one thing. Everything in moderation.
- pdeuchler 11y ago
  I'd love to see this study but I'm not sure it's possible, especially because of the fact that most startup failures still lead to great success later in life because of, not in spite of, the work done building the startup (whether or not that's fair? well, that's a different question).
  - toomuchtodo 11y ago
    For every startup failure that has granted someone the skills to succeed later in life, there's someone who has had their entire life torn apart putting their all into a startup, whether that be founder or an early employee. We really need to drop the facade that working a startup will always be beneficial to you, or lead you to wealth and/or success. Sometimes, its going to tear your soul from you and you may not come back from it for a long time.
emodendroket 11y ago
Such an article would probably not have the conclusion that playing the lottery was a wise investment, exactly.
- toomuchtodo 11y ago
  9 out of 10 startups fail. Those that don't, don't necessarily have prosperous exits. Unless you're a VC or accelerator (which is essentially a fund buying educated "lottery tickets"), the odds are not in your favor.
  - BrainInAJar 11y ago
    I'd really love to see the numbers on failed startups, though I suspect that they don't exist (since a fair chunk of startups don't even get as far as incorporating)
  - emodendroket 11y ago
    I'm not saying that startups are that likely to make you rich; what I'm saying is that even in the case that they're an even worse bet than the lottery (and I agree that it is likely), that doesn't mean that playing the lottery is smart; it just means both things are ill advised.
tracker1 11y ago
For me, it's nice to think of the "what if..." as I will generally only buy a single ticket per drawing over 100 million. I've never gone out and bought multiples of tickets. It's mainly to keep the dream/fantasy. I only even check my tickets a few times a year. Then again, I'm not much of a gambler in general.
spitfire 11y ago
The odds for a VC are better than the lottery. They get free options giving to them by every startup - "Call us when you have traction". It's time we started charging them for those options.
- troygoode 11y ago
  That isn't an option. You valuation goes up when you have traction and they buy at the new price...
NathanKP 11y ago
The major difference between your odds of success when playing the lottery and your odds of success when working at a startup is that you can affect your odds of success by your actions when working on a startup. A successful startup is not an accident, and a failed startup is not just a lack of luck. Make good business choices, product choices, and infrastructure choices and you can make the startup a success. On the other hand make poor product choices, and poor business choices and your startup will fail. On the other hand there is very little strategy or way to improve your odds of success when gambling.
matwood 11y ago
Scratch-offs are for suckers IMO. On pure EV alone, once you hit the 200M range the lottery makes sense to play. It doesn't mean you'll win but buying a ticket for $2 pays a little better than even if I remember the odds correctly. Think of it as a really large poker game where you didn't have to put any money in the pot and can play a random hand for $2 and win the entire pot. Personally, once it's in the 100M+ range I'll grab a ticket while getting gas.

by gooseus 11y ago

toomuchtodo 11y ago

> I have a gut feeling that a study of the odds/payout ratio of being apart of any given startup acquisition is better than what you'd get from any given lottery/scratch off... though I'm not taking into account the associated costs. How many tickets/scratch-offs is an 80 hour week for a full stack engineer worth? This is the study I'm interested in performing. > So, here's me hoping you weren't being facetious. Not at all! I'd rather buy X lottery tickets on the most advantageous schedule, enjoy working 32-35 hours a week, and spend the rest of my time with family, on hobbies, or traveling. I'm not going to fault someone for working 80-100 hours a week if that's what they enjoy doing, but if they're doing it to get rich, let's see if the data supports those odds.

tjradcliffe 11y ago
This is a really interesting comparison. I've done the startup thing (unsuccessfully) and know a fair number of other people who have as well (including one who came within one business decision of being a millionaire but who couldn't convince his partners to accept the buyout offer they were being given.) When you consider reward/(risk*effort) rather than just risk/reward it wouldn't surprise me if lotteries came out on top. But... the thing you don't get from a lottery is a statement like this: my life-partner and I met through PoF almost ten years ago, and I will be forever grateful to Marcus for building the site that made that possible. We had both been on other sites previously, and we had actually seen each other's profiles on other sites in the year or two before we met while we were both in a post-divorce dating phase, but PoF had the right mix of features that it happened to be where we actually connected with each other. As I recall, I saved her profile for later consideration at one point, and the site (unbeknownst to me) notified users when that happened, so she looked at my profile and contacted me with something along the lines of, "Don't hesitate, I won't be here long!" I didn't, and she wasn't. Now, I agree that accolades from strangers doesn't necessarily balance off time not spent with your family, but it is another factor in the overall equation, knowing you've made the world a better place for a lot of people.
- toomuchtodo 11y ago
  I'm not discounting the value that PoF provided to its users. That's important, and to be commended. Do what you enjoy, ensure someone is getting value out of it, but don't spend too much of your life on any one thing. Everything in moderation.
pdeuchler 11y ago
I'd love to see this study but I'm not sure it's possible, especially because of the fact that most startup failures still lead to great success later in life because of, not in spite of, the work done building the startup (whether or not that's fair? well, that's a different question).
- toomuchtodo 11y ago
  For every startup failure that has granted someone the skills to succeed later in life, there's someone who has had their entire life torn apart putting their all into a startup, whether that be founder or an early employee. We really need to drop the facade that working a startup will always be beneficial to you, or lead you to wealth and/or success. Sometimes, its going to tear your soul from you and you may not come back from it for a long time.

emodendroket 11y ago

Such an article would probably not have the conclusion that playing the lottery was a wise investment, exactly.

toomuchtodo 11y ago
9 out of 10 startups fail. Those that don't, don't necessarily have prosperous exits. Unless you're a VC or accelerator (which is essentially a fund buying educated "lottery tickets"), the odds are not in your favor.
- BrainInAJar 11y ago
  I'd really love to see the numbers on failed startups, though I suspect that they don't exist (since a fair chunk of startups don't even get as far as incorporating)
- emodendroket 11y ago
  I'm not saying that startups are that likely to make you rich; what I'm saying is that even in the case that they're an even worse bet than the lottery (and I agree that it is likely), that doesn't mean that playing the lottery is smart; it just means both things are ill advised.

tracker1 11y ago

For me, it's nice to think of the "what if..." as I will generally only buy a single ticket per drawing over 100 million. I've never gone out and bought multiples of tickets. It's mainly to keep the dream/fantasy. I only even check my tickets a few times a year. Then again, I'm not much of a gambler in general.

spitfire 11y ago

The odds for a VC are better than the lottery. They get free options giving to them by every startup - "Call us when you have traction". It's time we started charging them for those options.

troygoode 11y ago
That isn't an option. You valuation goes up when you have traction and they buy at the new price...

NathanKP 11y ago

The major difference between your odds of success when playing the lottery and your odds of success when working at a startup is that you can affect your odds of success by your actions when working on a startup. A successful startup is not an accident, and a failed startup is not just a lack of luck. Make good business choices, product choices, and infrastructure choices and you can make the startup a success. On the other hand make poor product choices, and poor business choices and your startup will fail. On the other hand there is very little strategy or way to improve your odds of success when gambling.

matwood 11y ago

Scratch-offs are for suckers IMO. On pure EV alone, once you hit the 200M range the lottery makes sense to play. It doesn't mean you'll win but buying a ticket for $2 pays a little better than even if I remember the odds correctly. Think of it as a really large poker game where you didn't have to put any money in the pot and can play a random hand for $2 and win the entire pot. Personally, once it's in the 100M+ range I'll grab a ticket while getting gas.