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Ignored is the fact that market was up 150% in the preceeding 12 months of its top. It's an extremely volatile market and a large selloff would be expected, pr

by dpweb 11y ago

Ignored is the fact that market was up 150% in the preceeding 12 months of its top. It's an extremely volatile market and a large selloff would be expected, probably inevitable. It's still up for 2015. Not exactly a crisis.

PuppyWhirl 11y ago
As an isolated case I would agree, but I'm still betting that this combined with the eurozone events will be the final straws for reversing investor sentiment to precipitate another large global recession. The underlying causes of the 08 crash in America were never addressed (consumer debt, real growth), and the Fed's interest rate games and QE only served to force investors into riskier and riskier assets, which only hurt productive real investment. All the valuation and volatility metrics have been screaming louder and louder for a long time now.
- deleted 11y ago
  [deleted]
olalonde 11y ago
Not surprising coming from the NYT. They've been China bashing for a long time and that only intensified after getting blocked back in 2012.
joosters 11y ago
It's lost 30% of its value, was that to be expected? Are you saying it won't fall any further? To me, it seems that you are glossing over a large stock market crash. Talking about it being 'to be expected' is a nonsense. If the market is so predictable, kindly enlighten us about what happens next, rather than being wise in hindsight.
- ams6110 11y ago
  Just eyeballing the chart in the story, it's still up 10% from January 2015. That's not a bad return. This looks like a correction of a ridiculous overvaluation spike to me. No market is predictable. That is why you don't try to do it. Invest regularly, i.e. dollar cost averaging. The couple who invested their entire savings in one shot during an obvious run-up made an all to common emotional mistake. OC I haven't studied the situation there in any depth.
  - joosters 11y ago
    But you're implicitly making a prediction or an assumption here, namely that there has been a correction. That there has been a correction. Are you sure that the market won't fall another 30% in the coming weeks?
    - smil 11y ago
      You're implicitly making a prediction here. Are you sure that the market will fall in the coming weeks?
      - adventured 11y ago
        Something that goes up for no good reason (spurred by margin), will come back down for a very good reason: it should have never been up there to begin with. Whether it's a week, a month, or a year, their market is going a lot lower yet. It'll retrace back to where it was, no matter what the central government does today. Trillions of dollars in real wealth will be lost in the debacle, as the event sets off dominoes.
      - joosters 11y ago
        Nope, that's not what I said.
        socceroos 11y ago
        But its what you insinuate, no?
        pessimizer 11y ago
        Unless you were implying that this will continue, "Are you sure that the market won't fall another 30% in the coming weeks?" is simply a non sequitur. As of now this is something that could be called a correction; it could develop into something that could be called a crash. As of now, if you invested the index four months ago, you haven't lost a penny.
- dpweb 11y ago
  They call them corrections for a reason. Extreme moves in one direction increase the likelihood of extreme moves in the opposite direction. You can chart volatility just like you can chart the price. Volatility is high right now. Corrections are not the same as crashes that wipe out 20 or 30 years of gains. The index is still up for the year. It is very disturbing that the govt. rushes in to attack short sellers and prop up the market artifically, funneling money into it. They show no enthusiasm to attempt to curb the bubble as its growing as the mkt is on the way up. In that way they are the same as the western world.
  - joosters 11y ago
    They are called corrections some time after the event, once we've all had our fill of hindsight. Are you trying to predict the market by claiming that it won't fall any further? If you aren't, then how can you be sure that this is a correction and not a crash? Even by your extreme measures of what a crash is, you have to realise that they don't happen instantly... who knows how long the market might sink for... Or rebound?
  - intrasight 11y ago
    It's definitely not a "correction" for the poor schmucks who put down their life savings on margin into equities last month.
tim333 11y ago
You can get problems if the market goes up, people borrow a bunch of money to buy stock and then it goes back down again. The winners aren't much affected, the losers cut their spending / lending and so the economy (as in total spending) dips.

by dpweb 11y ago

PuppyWhirl 11y ago

As an isolated case I would agree, but I'm still betting that this combined with the eurozone events will be the final straws for reversing investor sentiment to precipitate another large global recession. The underlying causes of the 08 crash in America were never addressed (consumer debt, real growth), and the Fed's interest rate games and QE only served to force investors into riskier and riskier assets, which only hurt productive real investment. All the valuation and volatility metrics have been screaming louder and louder for a long time now.

deleted 11y ago
[deleted]

olalonde 11y ago

Not surprising coming from the NYT. They've been China bashing for a long time and that only intensified after getting blocked back in 2012.

joosters 11y ago

It's lost 30% of its value, was that to be expected? Are you saying it won't fall any further? To me, it seems that you are glossing over a large stock market crash. Talking about it being 'to be expected' is a nonsense. If the market is so predictable, kindly enlighten us about what happens next, rather than being wise in hindsight.

ams6110 11y ago
Just eyeballing the chart in the story, it's still up 10% from January 2015. That's not a bad return. This looks like a correction of a ridiculous overvaluation spike to me. No market is predictable. That is why you don't try to do it. Invest regularly, i.e. dollar cost averaging. The couple who invested their entire savings in one shot during an obvious run-up made an all to common emotional mistake. OC I haven't studied the situation there in any depth.
- joosters 11y ago
  But you're implicitly making a prediction or an assumption here, namely that there has been a correction. That there has been a correction. Are you sure that the market won't fall another 30% in the coming weeks?
  - smil 11y ago
    You're implicitly making a prediction here. Are you sure that the market will fall in the coming weeks?
    - adventured 11y ago
      Something that goes up for no good reason (spurred by margin), will come back down for a very good reason: it should have never been up there to begin with. Whether it's a week, a month, or a year, their market is going a lot lower yet. It'll retrace back to where it was, no matter what the central government does today. Trillions of dollars in real wealth will be lost in the debacle, as the event sets off dominoes.
    - joosters 11y ago
      Nope, that's not what I said.
      - socceroos 11y ago
        But its what you insinuate, no?
      - pessimizer 11y ago
        Unless you were implying that this will continue, "Are you sure that the market won't fall another 30% in the coming weeks?" is simply a non sequitur. As of now this is something that could be called a correction; it could develop into something that could be called a crash. As of now, if you invested the index four months ago, you haven't lost a penny.
dpweb 11y ago
They call them corrections for a reason. Extreme moves in one direction increase the likelihood of extreme moves in the opposite direction. You can chart volatility just like you can chart the price. Volatility is high right now. Corrections are not the same as crashes that wipe out 20 or 30 years of gains. The index is still up for the year. It is very disturbing that the govt. rushes in to attack short sellers and prop up the market artifically, funneling money into it. They show no enthusiasm to attempt to curb the bubble as its growing as the mkt is on the way up. In that way they are the same as the western world.
- joosters 11y ago
  They are called corrections some time after the event, once we've all had our fill of hindsight. Are you trying to predict the market by claiming that it won't fall any further? If you aren't, then how can you be sure that this is a correction and not a crash? Even by your extreme measures of what a crash is, you have to realise that they don't happen instantly... who knows how long the market might sink for... Or rebound?
- intrasight 11y ago
  It's definitely not a "correction" for the poor schmucks who put down their life savings on margin into equities last month.

tim333 11y ago

You can get problems if the market goes up, people borrow a bunch of money to buy stock and then it goes back down again. The winners aren't much affected, the losers cut their spending / lending and so the economy (as in total spending) dips.