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Yep, pretty much this. The math is pretty clear that 75% of the time, you will fail. > There is recent research by Harvard University’s Shikhar Ghosh that th

Yep, pretty much this. The math is pretty clear that 75% of the time, you will fail. > There is recent research by Harvard University’s Shikhar Ghosh that three out of every four venture-backed firms fail, which was newsworthy because the failure rate was higher than normally cited by the venture capital industry. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/wp/2014/01/27/do-9-out-of-10-new-businesses-fail-as-rand-paul-claims/ http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/wp/2014/01/...

aaronbrethorst 11y ago
> The math is pretty clear that 75% of the time, you will fail. The math is way worse than that: http://venturebeat.com/2014/04/19/heres-a-look-inside-a-typical-vcs-pipeline-a-must-read-for-entrepreneurs/ http://venturebeat.com/2014/04/19/heres-a-look-inside-a-typi... If you manage to get VC funding, you're still going to fail three times out of four. But, that assumes you're one of the 8.3% of companies reviewed by a VC firm that gets funding. What percentage of nascent companies don't even get so far as a warm intro to a VC?
- free2rhyme214 11y ago
  The worst that happens is you gain entrepreneurial skills and lose a few thousand dollars in the process. SMB's have always had these odd's for hundreds of years. It really depends on what you value: freedom or perceived security.
  - kasey_junk 11y ago
    You seem to be severely discounting opportunity cost.
    - fweespeech 11y ago
      Yeah, I'd agree with you. The opportunity cost is probably a minimum of ~$50k for a software dev.
- fweespeech 11y ago
  http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/stories/2002-03-03/the-bottom-line-on-startup-failures http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/stories/2002-03-03/the-bottom-li... > The good news: Because few meaningful statistics exist about small, privately held companies, the astronomical business-failure rates that we hear quoted so often tend to be misleading. For instance, a survey done by the U.S. Commerce Dept. says that of every 10 small businesses, 7 will survive their first year, 3 will still be going after 3 years, and only 2 will remain after 5 years. > Most of us know through experience, however, that a lot of independent businesses do indeed close their doors quickly -- with certain industries more prone to see startups fold than others. Figures compiled by the National Restaurant Assn., for example, show that 80% of independently owned eateries fail within their first two years, for instance. It doesn't seem to be much worse/different for non-VC. Just smaller scales.
  - cubix 11y ago
    I wonder if the numbers have improved any in the 13 years since that was written.
    - fweespeech 11y ago
      Doubt it, its been pretty much around there for a very long time.

aaronbrethorst 11y ago

> The math is pretty clear that 75% of the time, you will fail. The math is way worse than that: http://venturebeat.com/2014/04/19/heres-a-look-inside-a-typical-vcs-pipeline-a-must-read-for-entrepreneurs/ http://venturebeat.com/2014/04/19/heres-a-look-inside-a-typi... If you manage to get VC funding, you're still going to fail three times out of four. But, that assumes you're one of the 8.3% of companies reviewed by a VC firm that gets funding. What percentage of nascent companies don't even get so far as a warm intro to a VC?

free2rhyme214 11y ago
The worst that happens is you gain entrepreneurial skills and lose a few thousand dollars in the process. SMB's have always had these odd's for hundreds of years. It really depends on what you value: freedom or perceived security.
- kasey_junk 11y ago
  You seem to be severely discounting opportunity cost.
  - fweespeech 11y ago
    Yeah, I'd agree with you. The opportunity cost is probably a minimum of ~$50k for a software dev.
fweespeech 11y ago
http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/stories/2002-03-03/the-bottom-line-on-startup-failures http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/stories/2002-03-03/the-bottom-li... > The good news: Because few meaningful statistics exist about small, privately held companies, the astronomical business-failure rates that we hear quoted so often tend to be misleading. For instance, a survey done by the U.S. Commerce Dept. says that of every 10 small businesses, 7 will survive their first year, 3 will still be going after 3 years, and only 2 will remain after 5 years. > Most of us know through experience, however, that a lot of independent businesses do indeed close their doors quickly -- with certain industries more prone to see startups fold than others. Figures compiled by the National Restaurant Assn., for example, show that 80% of independently owned eateries fail within their first two years, for instance. It doesn't seem to be much worse/different for non-VC. Just smaller scales.
- cubix 11y ago
  I wonder if the numbers have improved any in the 13 years since that was written.
  - fweespeech 11y ago
    Doubt it, its been pretty much around there for a very long time.