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NASA releases detailed global climate change projections
- jldungan 11y agoFor some helpful visualizations of these data, check out: climateinternational.org
- jldungan 11y agoFor some helpful visualizations of these data, check out http://climateinternational.org http://climateinternational.org
- RutZap 11y agoWould be great to see a nice visualisation tool built on top of OpenStreetMaps or something like that which allows you to see the predicted temperatures for a given location though time. Sadly this is way over my capabilities, also a 11 TB dataset is not easy to work with :(
- bicx 11y agoI'm also interested in seeing the possibility of seeing projections for my area, but yes, there doesn't seem to be a good way of sifting through the data.
- toomuchtodo 11y agoWould you be open to Kickstarting this project if the resulting repo was public/open source on Github? EDIT: I should be clear. I would not be writing the code. I'd do the legwork to find someone (and pay them) who is familiar working with OSM to process the data, create the dataset, and build a javascript frontend to visualize it. The result would be open source. I would accept no funds whatsoever for this. I don't have the time to do the project, but that doesn't mean I can find someone who does, and get them paid to do it and make the results freely available.
- mrfusion 11y agoSounds great. Are you offering to do it? I'll contribute.
- mrfusion 11y agoIn fact, I don't think there's even a way to get historic temperature by day/location anywhere. That would be a useful thing to add, just the ability to down small subsets of the data.
- schiffern 11y agohttp://www.wunderground.com/history/ http://www.wunderground.com/history/
- mrfusion 11y agoIt looks like you can only do one day at a time though? My ultimate goal is to make a list of cities with less than 10 90 degree days per year. I still don't see a way to do that on wunderground.
- toomuchtodo 11y agoCheck here: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access
- happyscrappy 11y agoNASA has released detailed global climate change projections. If you would like to know what these projections are please drink from this data firehose.
- sunwooz 11y agoI'm sure someone here is already making a visualization with the dataset.
- RutZap 11y agoI sure hope so because I am very very curious. Surely there are a lot of researchers that will love to jump into this data and manipulate it somehow. It's a good time to be studying climate change now... your dissertation is right here :D
- zamalek 11y ago> I sure hope so because I am very very curious. Indeed. The image at the top of the page (presumably the worst case scenario) has no legend. I'm guessing that the red is desert, but what counts as temperate? The South America blue or the South Africa yellow? Or are the colors a delta from the current temperatures? It's amazing how easy it is to turn a 12TB deluge of pristine scientific data into something completely meaningless.
- mrfusion 11y agoYou'd think some spots on the globe would get colder or rainer, no? Also this map makes it appear Antarctica will get colder? Or maybe that map is a stock image?
- RutZap 11y agoMy guess is that it shows the average temperature rather than actual climate. So red would be high temperature, and blue cold. I don't think that it refers to precipitation or anything like that. Or it could be a stock photo...
- duncan_bayne 11y agoLet's see if these fare any better than the projections used by the IPCC ... http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=5297 http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=5297 "The most recent climate model simulations used in the AR5 indicate that the warming stagnation since 1998 is no longer consistent with model projections even at the 2% confidence level." Kudos to them for publishing these, though. If they are rotten, it ought to be easy to tell.
- mavhc 11y agohttp://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/jun/08/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-noaa-global-warming-faux-pause-paper http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-...
- barney54 11y agoRebuttal: http://judithcurry.com/2015/06/04/has-noaa-busted-the-pause-in-global-warming/ http://judithcurry.com/2015/06/04/has-noaa-busted-the-pause-... The greatest changes in the new NOAA surface temperature analysis is to the ocean temperatures since 1998. This seems rather ironic, since this is the period where there is the greatest coverage of data with the highest quality of measurements – ARGO buoys and satellites don’t show a warming trend. Nevertheless, the NOAA team finds a substantial increase in the ocean surface temperature anomaly trend since 1998. ... The global surface temperature datasets are clearly a moving target. So while I’m sure this latest analysis from NOAA will be regarded as politically useful for the Obama administration, I don’t regard it as a particularly useful contribution to our scientific understanding of what is going on. ------ The link above also includes more on some of the specifics of the new adjustments NOAA made.
- anon1385 11y ago>regarded as politically useful for the Obama administration Judith sure knows how to play to the gallery.
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- AC__ 11y agoIt would literally take me 546 Days 19 Hours 30 Minutes 40.26 Seconds to download this dataset. I'm sure it reads like horror though.
- andy_ppp 11y agoIf the earth is 509 million square kilometers and the granularity of the data is 25sq km this means we have about 20.3m data points. It implies then on average each point is 540mb. The dataset seems to be broken down by year rather than location though, a UX issue I'd say...
- VLM 11y agoWRT breaking down by year, you could save some download time that way. Lets say you express the predicted error in the data not as a percentage of temperature but as a time along the trendline. That would imply beyond a certain estimated error horizon, it doesn't really matter which year you download as long as you get the decade vaguely correct, once the temperature error figure exceeds a couple years of travel along the trend lines. By example lets say today, here, 2080 CE, is 35C +/- 2C (to make the math easy) but the trend line is 0.1C/yr (unrealistic, but make the math easy) then +/- 2C is the same thing as saying +/- 20 years along the trendline, so I don't really need the 2080 data set I can do "roughly as well" with any data set downloaded from 2070 to 2090. Yeah yeah I know calculus and the derivative is likely not constant or even linear and this is a really simplified way to look at statistics, but the general plan holds as a way to cut back on downloaded data required. Based on REAL statistical analysis you could come up with a formula that says you'll only increase the error bars 10% wider at year X if you skip every Y years of data. Where I'm guessing Y might exceed a decade at the extreme future years of the run. That could save an enormous amount of bandwidth without significantly impacting a visualization or analysis. "Someone else" has to download it all, run the stat analysis, then tell us all, obviously it doesn't scale for all of us to download it all, run our own stat analysis, then go back in time and only download every Y-th year at or beyond year X. So thanks in advance, "Someone else"!
- godspiral 11y agoIts frustrating that they are not publishing the data in such chunks. Its good that they make every year available, but for analysis/reporting, you could reasonably just care about years 2030, 2050, 2100. 1 year of data would mean 120GB files or so (assuming 100 years total) Breaking it down by lattitude would mean 800MB lattide-year average data sets. Breaking it down by longitude would be very helpful too, and not much reason to not make that breakdown in addition to the lattitude one, which means 5mb data chunks. Its almost as though they are being intentionally uncooperative by dumping 12TB. Hopefully, some group makes a web interface that allows downloads in these manageable chunk sizes.
- WalterGR 11y agoThis article is about creating the projections and that they are available. Is there an article describing what the projections have projected?
- RutZap 11y agoI don't think anybody managed to download the whole set so far .
- WalterGR 11y agoNASA has it already. Do they not want to be in the business of interpreting climate data? Or is it too soon even for them?
- caseysoftware 11y agoThese are projections and the results of simulations - not fact - so they're already interpreting and/or claiming validity of the models.
- WalterGR 11y agoYou are technically correct.
- wang_li 11y agoNASA seems like the wrong agency to be doing this kind of work. NOAA would be more appropriate.
- tonec 11y agoThe entire dataset is 12TB because it contains _daily_ global 25x25km maps for all years between 1950-2099 probably for a bunch of different variables. You don't need to download the entire thing to get the gist of it, although it probably would have helped if they also delivered a digest version with for example yearly or 5-yearly averages. Edit: There is also a THREDDS data catalog present which allows you to extract slices or subsets of the entire data. Other than that it's missing a nice visualization tool I'd say its a pretty reasonable way of making such a huge amount of data available.
- fixermark 11y agoIf you could boil it down for the busier among us: on a scale of "screwed" to "really screwed", how screwed does it say we are? ;)
- Havoc 11y agoNot based on this dataset, but I gather most models already require an assumption of powerful carbon capture tech on a big scale to result in an outcome other than disaster. i.e. reduction alone is no longer sufficient in itself to prevent serious consequences.
- briandear 11y agoReally? You actually believe the hysteria?
- fixermark 11y agoDefine 'hysteria.' I believe humanity will survive, but at a significant cost to lifestyle (at least from the point of view of this American). I'll miss the places that are beaches right now being beaches, and I'm not looking forward to the economic disruption as food sources change. We're an advanced enough society that in a nightmare scenario, we could pretty much weather several generations in a cave under a tightly-controlled resource regiment. But not seven billion of us, and I don't look forward to the culling that would happen as a result of massive climate upheaval.
- peter303 11y agoWill it rain next weekend?
- IvyMike 11y agoI dunno. But I will bet you that August 2021 in Chicago will be warmer on average than February 2022.
- joeclark77 11y agoI predict it will also be more than 10% longer.
- phaemon 11y agoSomewhere on the planet? Sure. Where I am? Nope. I know this because of the high pressure area that's currently sitting here and will take time to move. Last weekend, however, it would have been practically impossible to tell whether it would rain here or not. There was a low coming in off the Atlantic, and if it had gone a little further North or South, it would have rained there instead of here. Forecasters are nearly 100% accurate with what the weather will be. It's just the time and location of that weather that are tricky!
- julienchastang 11y agoSeveral comments in this thread mention visualization. These data can be easily visualized with the Unidata IDV [1] (same ppl that make THREDDS). For those interested, go to the IDV dashboard, "Data Choosers" tab and enter http://dataserver3.nccs.nasa.gov/thredds/catalog/bypass/NEX-GDDP/catalog.xml http://dataserver3.nccs.nasa.gov/thredds/catalog/bypass/NEX-... for the catalog. At that point you can browse the dataset, add the data as a data source, subset it (serverside), and visualize it. I and others have made a bunch of videos of how to use the IDV[2]. [1] https://www.unidata.ucar.edu/software/IDV/ https://www.unidata.ucar.edu/software/IDV/ [2] http://goo.gl/n0Frpb http://goo.gl/n0Frpb
- jchrisa 11y agoI just want a single image that tells me the expected better/worse degree of change in suitability for agriculture and habitation. Maybe red would mean a lot worse than today, and green would mean a lot better. An absolute image (of today's climate) would help make sense of the deltas also.
- schiffern 11y ago>expected better/worse degree of change in suitability for agriculture and habitation What kind of agriculture? Every plant species is different, and various growing techniques are suited to different conditions. What kind of habitat? Every dwelling is different, and every person has unique requirements of it. See the problem?
- fmarc 11y agohttp://climateinternational.org http://climateinternational.org has a set of visualizations for daily maximum temperature created from this dataset. Hopefully more visualizations will be added soon.
- bbuchalter 11y agoTrying to follow along here, but having a bit of trouble. 1. Visited https://www.unidata.ucar.edu/software/idv/webstart/IDV/ https://www.unidata.ucar.edu/software/idv/webstart/IDV/ 2. Got Unidata IDV running locally 3. I was then able to add the data source via URL and saw two options in "Field Selector": "Image Collection" and "Omni Control". I've tried selecting either field and clicking "Create Display", but nothing ever appears in the "Displays" tab. Would welcome further advice or more specific reference to directions among the 16 videos in your YouTube playlist. Thank you! This may be related to some of the errors[1] that seem to occur on startup of IDV. [1]https://gist.github.com/bbuchalter/dda50df626e7c4baf501 https://gist.github.com/bbuchalter/dda50df626e7c4baf501
- swalsh 11y agoBusiness idea for anyone with some time on their hands. Set up a site, and sell harddives with this data already on it.
- chrismarlow9 11y agoI recall reading about an investing company making a pretty penny by using data like this to forecast the growth of certain crops.