15 ms·

97% environmentalist

89 points by rndn 11y ago

deleted 11y ago
[deleted]
tribe 11y ago
I have read similar perspectives before[1], and I am not sure how I feel about them. On the one hand, much of the industrial pollution /is/ in response to consumer demand and reducing personal consumption has some impact on that. But on the other hand, it seems very clear that by and large the public will never change consumption patterns to be more environmentally friendly ( sometimes because they cannot financially, and often because they do not care ). So it seems systematic changes are necessary. [1] https://orionmagazine.org/article/forget-shorter-showers/ https://orionmagazine.org/article/forget-shorter-showers/
- Symmetry 11y ago
  Reducing consumption is a much, much more effective strategy than divestment. If half the people halve their carbon consumption then global carbon use goes down a quarter. If half the investors stop investing in fossil fuel companies then those companies that are publicly traded will only see their stocks go down a tiny amount.
- VLM 11y ago
  "the public will never change consumption patterns to be more environmentally friendly" Gas / oil / coal / food are not free. In fact the poorer you are, the more expensive they are relative to total lifestyle. The financial markets are pretty messed up. The newspaper interest rate is 0.025% or whatever, but it doesn't matter. The real world interest rate for poor people is 29.99% credit cards and loansharks and rent-to-own scams. If that were fixed, so poor people could buy house insulation and solar panels at bank level interest rates instead of loan shark level interest rates or no operating financial markets at all... "So it seems systematic changes are necessary." We don't have the political organization at this time to do anything other than mess things up worse than they are currently. The same folks who can't provide a modern medical system, a sensible K12 or higher ed system, can't do foreign policy without killing millions of innocent civilians, can't run an economy to the benefit of more than 1% of the citizens, if, given more power over environmental issues, are just going to find a way to make the rich richer, the poor poorer, and kill a bunch of proles all while telling us its for "our" own good. One has to be pragmatic, screwing up is the only thing they've done for a couple generations. Given that historical record, its very hard to support .gov intervention beyond the "put a green ribbon imported from a Chinese factory on my car to raise awareness" level of action.
  - fennecfoxen 11y ago
    > The financial markets are pretty messed up... The real world interest rate for poor people is 29.99% credit cards and loansharks and rent-to-own scams. Yeah, turns out there's a heck of a risk premium involved with making unsecured non-recourse loans to people who don't make all that much money. This sucks, of course, but what in God's name do you expect to happen instead? Banks willingly losing billions a year on bad loans? We do have charities in this country, but banks aren't them. > If that were fixed, so poor people could buy house insulation and solar panels at bank level interest rates instead of loan shark level interest rates... Poor people buying home insulation? I thought we called it the Weatherization Assistance Program. (Part of the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.) If that didn't work out, why not, and what exactly do you think will work out? (And anyway, do poor people generally own a house, or rent?)
    - WalterBright 11y ago
      I thought banks already tried loaning money to people who couldn't pay it back. It produced the recent housing bubble and crash.
- YokoZar 11y ago
  The data seems to disagree on this point. A 10% rise in the price of gasoline, for instance, will cut consumption overnight by 2%, rising to 5% over the next 5 years or so as people make longer term adjustments. There are a surprising amount of substitutions people can (and, as measured, do) make to their habits when the prices go up. Overnight they may consolidate trips, drive the more efficient car they already own, or just not make a marginal trip at all. Over 5 years they may consider buying a more efficient car, or living closer to work, or any of a large number of possible solutions that you only think about when the price is affecting you directly. People do change their habits in response to price signals. The trick is actually raising the prices (eg via taxes on environmentally bad things). After that you don't really need to do much convincing.
lern_too_spel 11y ago
Never skip Aaronson's comments on his blog posts. They're often as good as the posts themselves. Here's a great example: "Whenever I hear this style of argument, I’m reminded of Marcia Clark’s closing argument in the OJ Simpson trial: 'We have proved that OJ Simpson is a murderer. The defense has proved that Mark Fuhrman is a racist.' "Likewise, in this case: 'We have proved that climate change is a grave threat to the survival of human civilization. You have proved that rich, do-gooder liberals can come off as annoying hypocrites.' "Unfortunately, the human mind is wired in such a way that, just as 'Mark Fuhrman is a racist' actually worked to get OJ acquitted for murder, so 'Al Gore and Leonardo DiCaprio are smug elitists, flying around in their private jets' is considered by millions to be a strong argument for climate inaction."
- briandear 11y ago
  If Al Gore were so profoundly afraid of climate change, he wouldn't fly in a private jet or have a huge mansion with massive electrical consumption. Since he does those things, then he's obviously not convinced that human activity affects climate. Interestingly, if he donated the billions in profits he has made from his climate change "investments" then perhaps he could be taken more seriously. Al Gore invests in "green" companies. He uses his platform to scare the world. He becomes a billionaire. He continues living his life exactly as he did before. Anyone that attempts to give Al Gore any credibility whatsoever has none themselves. It's interesting because Warren Buffet is often cited by leftists because Buffet supports raising income taxes. See the Buffet secretary story from 2011 where he complained that his secretary pays a higher income tax rate than he does. Interestingly, Buffet did not call for a raising of the capital gains tax -- the form of income from which Buffet derives his wealth. The relevance of this example is that these marquee people that try and influence public policy ALWAYS act rationally towards their own best interests. Al Gore promotes AGW and becomes a billionaire. Buffet suggests raising income taxes to potentially deflect calls to raise capital gains taxes. This "settled science" bullshit is exactly that. No science is "settled," yet there are those that want to fundamentally alter civilization based on politically-influenced mathematical models. Interestingly, even the IPCC admits that "we redistribute world's wealth by climate policy." Looking at the AGW issue objectively, given all of the scandal, the misrepresentations, the outright lies (i.e. the polar ice cap will be completely gone by 2016,) and the Chicken Little aspects, a person with no political opinions at all would be suspicious. The idea of human-caused global warming has been trumpeted with a zeal equal to that of the Eugenics movement -- and we all know how that turned out. As an example, Charles Davenport had a PhD in biology from Harvard and later was a Harvard professor. He also was the director of Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory. At the time, one could say his scientific credentials were beyond reproach. One of his statements (among others) was, "I believe in such a selection of immigrants as shall not tend to adulterate our national germ plasm with socially unfit traits." This highly respected scientist helped and supported the Nazis, their scientific programs were based on much of Davenport's work. Yet, in 1911, he was elected to the National Academy of Sciences because of his eugenics work. Eugenics inspired Margaret Sanger to found Planned Parenthood, not to save society from unwanted pregnancies, but to prevent immigrant "inferiors" from breeding. A member of the National Academy of Sciences who laid the groundwork for the extermination of millions of people. All based on "settled science." So pardon me if I'm a bit skeptical when a billionaire politician like Al Gore tries to sell the world a bill of goods. We could argue that divestiture or the elimination of fossil fuels might be "good," but then again similar arguments for "goodness" were made in the justification eugenics. I'm certainly not comparing oil to genocide; I'm elucidating the potential rabbit hole down which we may go when we confuse the scientific with the political.
DanielBMarkham 11y ago
Three things seem true to me. 1) The debate around climate change is the worst piece of rhetorical garbage that has ever been foisted on mankind in the last couple of decades. Look at the terms in this essay, which is admittedly a more balanced judgment. We have environmentalists and anti-environmentalists. Who that breathes does not like breathing? Are there folks who wish to poison themselves? Please, spare me the "rich folks are out to destroy the planet on the backs of the poor" argument. Everybody is an environmentalist, at least when it comes to being a living human. Political groups which have no logical opponents do not add productively to the public discourse. 2) The more energy and freedom poor people have, the better we all are. Poor workers with cars can drive to find jobs. Poor people without water can use energy to extract water from deep in the ground, the air, or the ocean. Poor people with cheap energy can rebuild houses, move, go to school, live a better life. More freedom and cheaper power to as many poor people as possible. 3) Intelligent carbon-based creatures that exist in dry areas of the habitable zone of solar systems will evolve into their intelligence based on the backs of millions of years of built up hydrocarbons. These creatures will release this energy by burning -- this is as natural as a fish swimming in the ocean. Is such a release part of The Great Filter? Or is such a release part of the inevitable journey from the swamp to the sky? I don't think we have enough evidence to say one way or another. I am concerned by those who feel otherwise. I think worst-case scenarios around climate change emphasize the need to productively develop all of mankind as quickly as possible. That probably means hundreds of new nuclear reactors being built. Worldwide. I see no effort anywhere for that to happen. Instead I see various proposals that always end up with expensive energy for poor people. This is only going to make the problem worse. We are going to take away the tools that poor people and nations need to grow capabilities to deal with things when they change. And while we're doing it, we're going to rob them and their children of a better future. It's a solution that's worse than the problem.
- toomuchtodo 11y ago
  > I think worst-case scenarios around climate change emphasize the need to productively develop all of mankind as quickly as possible. That probably means hundreds of new nuclear reactors being built. Worldwide. I see no effort anywhere for that to happen. Instead I see various proposals that always end up with expensive energy for poor people. This is only going to make the problem worse. We are going to take away the tools that poor people and nations need to grow capabilities to deal with things when they change. And while we're doing it, we're going to rob them and their children of a better future. It's a solution that's worse than the problem. I really have to disagree with you. After reading about the decline in nuclear power across the world, the inability to get traction on Thorium-based LFTRs, and so forth, nuclear is not the answer. I mean, it could be if we as a species didn't suck so terribly at managing it as an energy source. We are not that species yet (note we still keep a coal-fired generation plant operating near Congress in DC due to politics). If you'd like to debate this in depth, check my profile; my email is there. The Earth Policy Institute (holla Lester Brown) has shown how quickly China is bringing online solar and wind generation resources that already outpace their nuclear generation capacity. Bloomberg reported Friday that the US is on track to add an additional 35 percent of solar capacity this year alone. Nuclear plants, coal plants, all of these central generation facilities all require massive capital outlays, they require corporations to manage them, staff to run. Solar and wind require none of these (except utility-scale, there be a bit more work required there). It's simple, so very simple! We should be build solar and wind flat out as fast as possible, selling it to those who can afford it and giving it away to those who can't. Solar Electric Light Fund http://self.org/ http://self.org/ "SELF's mission is to design and implement solar energy solutions to assist the 1.5 billion people living in energy poverty with their economic, educational, health care and agricultural development." Wind vs Nuclear in China: http://www.earth-policy.org/data_highlights/2014/highlights45 http://www.earth-policy.org/data_highlights/2014/highlights4... Bloomberg Article I mention: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-26/solar-as-fastest-growing-u-s-power-source-rivals-shale-boom http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-26/solar-as-f... Deutsche Bank Predicts Grid Parity Of Solar Across All Fifty States in 2016: http://cleantechnica.com/2014/10/29/solar-grid-parity-us-states-2016-says-deutsche-bank/ http://cleantechnica.com/2014/10/29/solar-grid-parity-us-sta...
doctorpangloss 11y ago
The greatest irony is that a preponderance of oil actually made energy stocks go down. In that sense, Scott Aaronson gets the relationship between oil in the ground and long stock in energy companies completely backwards. Indeed, the S&P energy sector index, for example, has been strongly positively correlated with oil prices for at least the last two years that I've checked. This is sort of a pedantic point: selling your shares in Shell substitutes, not reinforces, pumping more oil out of the ground. In that sense, divestment achieves its goal of keeping oil in the ground, for sure. But sometimes, if your company can pump more oil from the ground, and Saudi doesn't also pump more oil, you've made money and your stock rises. Sometimes, if you pump more oil from the ground, everyone's stock falls. It's complicated. What's most persuasive? If you had listened to the divestment folks back in 2012, when many of these movements took off, you would be on a great big pile of cash right now. So it actually makes a lot more sense to pitch big academic endowments: "You'll make a ton of money if you divest from energy stocks." There's just no way you could have known that would work in 2013, especially in the midst of an oil boom. My recommendation: Make as much money as possible, and lobby for cap-and-trade pollution credits. Then you can buy all the credits you want, and simply not use them. It is a far more direct and economically predictable way to achieve environmental change.
- toomuchtodo 11y ago
  > My recommendation: Make as much money as possible, and lobby for cap-and-trade pollution credits. Then you can buy all the credits you want, and simply not use them. It is a far more direct and economically predictable way to achieve environmental change. I very much agree with this solution. I'd also consider the funding of genetic research into bacteria that could convert oil in situ into something stable in the ground so it could never be pumped into the future, pumping said bacteria into wells using the same equipment used for hydraulic fracturing. We as a species have a terrible track record as stewards of our planet. We can, and should, do better.
- WalterBright 11y ago
  The cap-and-trade thing never made much sense to me. If you want to reduce something, simply tax it.
maceo 11y ago
As much as I admire many of the people working towards divestment from fossil fuel companies, I think the whole movement is defeatist. Great, you convince your university endowment fund, pension fund, etc to divest -- now what? Now those shares will be bought and controlled by an institution that is immune from popular pressure. Who wins here? Nobody. On the other hand, if instead of agitating for divestment, the students/workers/activists were to ask for proxy votes, then we could put up a real fight at shareholder meetings. Sure, we might not have enough power to elect board members in the early stages, but nothing builds a movement more than meeting up with like-minded people and confronting the enemy face to face. It would provide a forum for activists to make connections with one another, grow the movement, and get excited about the possibility of fighting climate change by being an engaged citizen. It's heart-breaking to me to see so much support given to this divestment movement -- I've never seen any of the major figures involved give a justification for why we should be divesting rather than fighting the corporations head on. Especially since proxy fights have a history of driving movement growth in the US. Divestment is a retreat. If climate change is really as much of a threat as most of us know it to be, then retreating should not be an option.
- Brakenshire 11y ago
  I have had a similar reaction before. But I think the alternative you offer is too rosy. There seems very little chance that shareholder activism will be able to stop oil companies looking for oil - that is their sole purpose and to a large degree their sole expertise. And there is a point to make that many fossil fuel assets will be stranded, and made worthless, if we do manage to limit emissions enough to stay below an increase of 2-3 degrees Celsius. The Bank of England and the IMF are both talking about this being another subprime issue. The divestment of pension funds, major charities and other similar organizations gives a better, more accurate sense of jeopardy – 'by all means, invest in these stocks, but bear in mind that you are taking a gamble, and don't be surprised if your investment goes belly up' and it also means that if such a retrenchment takes place the burden will fall on speculative private capital rather than important and structural social institutions. I would like to read more discussion about the issue, though.
hobarrera 11y ago
I'm all for getting rid of carbon fuels due to inefficiency, lack of scalability, etc. But, global warming? I would have expected better of educated people such as these. eg: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuj_tlRRQdQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuj_tlRRQdQ
- rndn 11y ago
  What about this: > Just over 97% of published climate researchers say humans are causing most global warming. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_...
  - hobarrera 11y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argumentum_ad_populum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argumentum_ad_populum ? We should weight evidence, not amount of people behind it.
- 7952 11y ago
  It is almost inconceivable that humans are not changing climate. The atmosphere is a chaotic system that is influenced by things that humans have directly changed. It is just difficult to quantify the magnitude of that change because there is no baseline that would show what the planet would be like without human activity. These endless arguments over the semantics of what scientists think is completely inane. We need educated people to actually understand how the environment works and stop treating it like some abstract concept that only exists inside some scientist's head. If you release millions of tons of stuff into the environment then it will have an effect that could be bad.
  - hobarrera 11y ago
    > If you release millions of tons of stuff into the environment then it will have an effect that could be bad. You're quite right, it could have a bad effect, but we've yet to prove that climate changes are an effect of those gases we've released. One, quite important, detail, on climate change, is that a few several centuries ago, the earth was actually warmer by a few degrees that it is today. This would indicate that climate changes is not strictly due to the gases we're putting out, and that there are more complex variables in the system than what's being considered.
ziedaniel1 11y ago
97% environmentalist -- the same way he called himself 97% feminist: http://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=2091#comment-326664 http://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=2091#comment-326664

89 points by rndn 11y ago

deleted 11y ago

[deleted]

tribe 11y ago

I have read similar perspectives before[1], and I am not sure how I feel about them. On the one hand, much of the industrial pollution /is/ in response to consumer demand and reducing personal consumption has some impact on that. But on the other hand, it seems very clear that by and large the public will never change consumption patterns to be more environmentally friendly ( sometimes because they cannot financially, and often because they do not care ). So it seems systematic changes are necessary. [1] https://orionmagazine.org/article/forget-shorter-showers/ https://orionmagazine.org/article/forget-shorter-showers/

Symmetry 11y ago
Reducing consumption is a much, much more effective strategy than divestment. If half the people halve their carbon consumption then global carbon use goes down a quarter. If half the investors stop investing in fossil fuel companies then those companies that are publicly traded will only see their stocks go down a tiny amount.
VLM 11y ago
"the public will never change consumption patterns to be more environmentally friendly" Gas / oil / coal / food are not free. In fact the poorer you are, the more expensive they are relative to total lifestyle. The financial markets are pretty messed up. The newspaper interest rate is 0.025% or whatever, but it doesn't matter. The real world interest rate for poor people is 29.99% credit cards and loansharks and rent-to-own scams. If that were fixed, so poor people could buy house insulation and solar panels at bank level interest rates instead of loan shark level interest rates or no operating financial markets at all... "So it seems systematic changes are necessary." We don't have the political organization at this time to do anything other than mess things up worse than they are currently. The same folks who can't provide a modern medical system, a sensible K12 or higher ed system, can't do foreign policy without killing millions of innocent civilians, can't run an economy to the benefit of more than 1% of the citizens, if, given more power over environmental issues, are just going to find a way to make the rich richer, the poor poorer, and kill a bunch of proles all while telling us its for "our" own good. One has to be pragmatic, screwing up is the only thing they've done for a couple generations. Given that historical record, its very hard to support .gov intervention beyond the "put a green ribbon imported from a Chinese factory on my car to raise awareness" level of action.
- fennecfoxen 11y ago
  > The financial markets are pretty messed up... The real world interest rate for poor people is 29.99% credit cards and loansharks and rent-to-own scams. Yeah, turns out there's a heck of a risk premium involved with making unsecured non-recourse loans to people who don't make all that much money. This sucks, of course, but what in God's name do you expect to happen instead? Banks willingly losing billions a year on bad loans? We do have charities in this country, but banks aren't them. > If that were fixed, so poor people could buy house insulation and solar panels at bank level interest rates instead of loan shark level interest rates... Poor people buying home insulation? I thought we called it the Weatherization Assistance Program. (Part of the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.) If that didn't work out, why not, and what exactly do you think will work out? (And anyway, do poor people generally own a house, or rent?)
  - WalterBright 11y ago
    I thought banks already tried loaning money to people who couldn't pay it back. It produced the recent housing bubble and crash.
YokoZar 11y ago
The data seems to disagree on this point. A 10% rise in the price of gasoline, for instance, will cut consumption overnight by 2%, rising to 5% over the next 5 years or so as people make longer term adjustments. There are a surprising amount of substitutions people can (and, as measured, do) make to their habits when the prices go up. Overnight they may consolidate trips, drive the more efficient car they already own, or just not make a marginal trip at all. Over 5 years they may consider buying a more efficient car, or living closer to work, or any of a large number of possible solutions that you only think about when the price is affecting you directly. People do change their habits in response to price signals. The trick is actually raising the prices (eg via taxes on environmentally bad things). After that you don't really need to do much convincing.

lern_too_spel 11y ago

Never skip Aaronson's comments on his blog posts. They're often as good as the posts themselves. Here's a great example: "Whenever I hear this style of argument, I’m reminded of Marcia Clark’s closing argument in the OJ Simpson trial: 'We have proved that OJ Simpson is a murderer. The defense has proved that Mark Fuhrman is a racist.' "Likewise, in this case: 'We have proved that climate change is a grave threat to the survival of human civilization. You have proved that rich, do-gooder liberals can come off as annoying hypocrites.' "Unfortunately, the human mind is wired in such a way that, just as 'Mark Fuhrman is a racist' actually worked to get OJ acquitted for murder, so 'Al Gore and Leonardo DiCaprio are smug elitists, flying around in their private jets' is considered by millions to be a strong argument for climate inaction."

briandear 11y ago
If Al Gore were so profoundly afraid of climate change, he wouldn't fly in a private jet or have a huge mansion with massive electrical consumption. Since he does those things, then he's obviously not convinced that human activity affects climate. Interestingly, if he donated the billions in profits he has made from his climate change "investments" then perhaps he could be taken more seriously. Al Gore invests in "green" companies. He uses his platform to scare the world. He becomes a billionaire. He continues living his life exactly as he did before. Anyone that attempts to give Al Gore any credibility whatsoever has none themselves. It's interesting because Warren Buffet is often cited by leftists because Buffet supports raising income taxes. See the Buffet secretary story from 2011 where he complained that his secretary pays a higher income tax rate than he does. Interestingly, Buffet did not call for a raising of the capital gains tax -- the form of income from which Buffet derives his wealth. The relevance of this example is that these marquee people that try and influence public policy ALWAYS act rationally towards their own best interests. Al Gore promotes AGW and becomes a billionaire. Buffet suggests raising income taxes to potentially deflect calls to raise capital gains taxes. This "settled science" bullshit is exactly that. No science is "settled," yet there are those that want to fundamentally alter civilization based on politically-influenced mathematical models. Interestingly, even the IPCC admits that "we redistribute world's wealth by climate policy." Looking at the AGW issue objectively, given all of the scandal, the misrepresentations, the outright lies (i.e. the polar ice cap will be completely gone by 2016,) and the Chicken Little aspects, a person with no political opinions at all would be suspicious. The idea of human-caused global warming has been trumpeted with a zeal equal to that of the Eugenics movement -- and we all know how that turned out. As an example, Charles Davenport had a PhD in biology from Harvard and later was a Harvard professor. He also was the director of Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory. At the time, one could say his scientific credentials were beyond reproach. One of his statements (among others) was, "I believe in such a selection of immigrants as shall not tend to adulterate our national germ plasm with socially unfit traits." This highly respected scientist helped and supported the Nazis, their scientific programs were based on much of Davenport's work. Yet, in 1911, he was elected to the National Academy of Sciences because of his eugenics work. Eugenics inspired Margaret Sanger to found Planned Parenthood, not to save society from unwanted pregnancies, but to prevent immigrant "inferiors" from breeding. A member of the National Academy of Sciences who laid the groundwork for the extermination of millions of people. All based on "settled science." So pardon me if I'm a bit skeptical when a billionaire politician like Al Gore tries to sell the world a bill of goods. We could argue that divestiture or the elimination of fossil fuels might be "good," but then again similar arguments for "goodness" were made in the justification eugenics. I'm certainly not comparing oil to genocide; I'm elucidating the potential rabbit hole down which we may go when we confuse the scientific with the political.

DanielBMarkham 11y ago

Three things seem true to me. 1) The debate around climate change is the worst piece of rhetorical garbage that has ever been foisted on mankind in the last couple of decades. Look at the terms in this essay, which is admittedly a more balanced judgment. We have environmentalists and anti-environmentalists. Who that breathes does not like breathing? Are there folks who wish to poison themselves? Please, spare me the "rich folks are out to destroy the planet on the backs of the poor" argument. Everybody is an environmentalist, at least when it comes to being a living human. Political groups which have no logical opponents do not add productively to the public discourse. 2) The more energy and freedom poor people have, the better we all are. Poor workers with cars can drive to find jobs. Poor people without water can use energy to extract water from deep in the ground, the air, or the ocean. Poor people with cheap energy can rebuild houses, move, go to school, live a better life. More freedom and cheaper power to as many poor people as possible. 3) Intelligent carbon-based creatures that exist in dry areas of the habitable zone of solar systems will evolve into their intelligence based on the backs of millions of years of built up hydrocarbons. These creatures will release this energy by burning -- this is as natural as a fish swimming in the ocean. Is such a release part of The Great Filter? Or is such a release part of the inevitable journey from the swamp to the sky? I don't think we have enough evidence to say one way or another. I am concerned by those who feel otherwise. I think worst-case scenarios around climate change emphasize the need to productively develop all of mankind as quickly as possible. That probably means hundreds of new nuclear reactors being built. Worldwide. I see no effort anywhere for that to happen. Instead I see various proposals that always end up with expensive energy for poor people. This is only going to make the problem worse. We are going to take away the tools that poor people and nations need to grow capabilities to deal with things when they change. And while we're doing it, we're going to rob them and their children of a better future. It's a solution that's worse than the problem.

toomuchtodo 11y ago
> I think worst-case scenarios around climate change emphasize the need to productively develop all of mankind as quickly as possible. That probably means hundreds of new nuclear reactors being built. Worldwide. I see no effort anywhere for that to happen. Instead I see various proposals that always end up with expensive energy for poor people. This is only going to make the problem worse. We are going to take away the tools that poor people and nations need to grow capabilities to deal with things when they change. And while we're doing it, we're going to rob them and their children of a better future. It's a solution that's worse than the problem. I really have to disagree with you. After reading about the decline in nuclear power across the world, the inability to get traction on Thorium-based LFTRs, and so forth, nuclear is not the answer. I mean, it could be if we as a species didn't suck so terribly at managing it as an energy source. We are not that species yet (note we still keep a coal-fired generation plant operating near Congress in DC due to politics). If you'd like to debate this in depth, check my profile; my email is there. The Earth Policy Institute (holla Lester Brown) has shown how quickly China is bringing online solar and wind generation resources that already outpace their nuclear generation capacity. Bloomberg reported Friday that the US is on track to add an additional 35 percent of solar capacity this year alone. Nuclear plants, coal plants, all of these central generation facilities all require massive capital outlays, they require corporations to manage them, staff to run. Solar and wind require none of these (except utility-scale, there be a bit more work required there). It's simple, so very simple! We should be build solar and wind flat out as fast as possible, selling it to those who can afford it and giving it away to those who can't. Solar Electric Light Fund http://self.org/ http://self.org/ "SELF's mission is to design and implement solar energy solutions to assist the 1.5 billion people living in energy poverty with their economic, educational, health care and agricultural development." Wind vs Nuclear in China: http://www.earth-policy.org/data_highlights/2014/highlights45 http://www.earth-policy.org/data_highlights/2014/highlights4... Bloomberg Article I mention: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-26/solar-as-fastest-growing-u-s-power-source-rivals-shale-boom http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-26/solar-as-f... Deutsche Bank Predicts Grid Parity Of Solar Across All Fifty States in 2016: http://cleantechnica.com/2014/10/29/solar-grid-parity-us-states-2016-says-deutsche-bank/ http://cleantechnica.com/2014/10/29/solar-grid-parity-us-sta...

doctorpangloss 11y ago

The greatest irony is that a preponderance of oil actually made energy stocks go down. In that sense, Scott Aaronson gets the relationship between oil in the ground and long stock in energy companies completely backwards. Indeed, the S&P energy sector index, for example, has been strongly positively correlated with oil prices for at least the last two years that I've checked. This is sort of a pedantic point: selling your shares in Shell substitutes, not reinforces, pumping more oil out of the ground. In that sense, divestment achieves its goal of keeping oil in the ground, for sure. But sometimes, if your company can pump more oil from the ground, and Saudi doesn't also pump more oil, you've made money and your stock rises. Sometimes, if you pump more oil from the ground, everyone's stock falls. It's complicated. What's most persuasive? If you had listened to the divestment folks back in 2012, when many of these movements took off, you would be on a great big pile of cash right now. So it actually makes a lot more sense to pitch big academic endowments: "You'll make a ton of money if you divest from energy stocks." There's just no way you could have known that would work in 2013, especially in the midst of an oil boom. My recommendation: Make as much money as possible, and lobby for cap-and-trade pollution credits. Then you can buy all the credits you want, and simply not use them. It is a far more direct and economically predictable way to achieve environmental change.

toomuchtodo 11y ago
> My recommendation: Make as much money as possible, and lobby for cap-and-trade pollution credits. Then you can buy all the credits you want, and simply not use them. It is a far more direct and economically predictable way to achieve environmental change. I very much agree with this solution. I'd also consider the funding of genetic research into bacteria that could convert oil in situ into something stable in the ground so it could never be pumped into the future, pumping said bacteria into wells using the same equipment used for hydraulic fracturing. We as a species have a terrible track record as stewards of our planet. We can, and should, do better.
WalterBright 11y ago
The cap-and-trade thing never made much sense to me. If you want to reduce something, simply tax it.

maceo 11y ago

As much as I admire many of the people working towards divestment from fossil fuel companies, I think the whole movement is defeatist. Great, you convince your university endowment fund, pension fund, etc to divest -- now what? Now those shares will be bought and controlled by an institution that is immune from popular pressure. Who wins here? Nobody. On the other hand, if instead of agitating for divestment, the students/workers/activists were to ask for proxy votes, then we could put up a real fight at shareholder meetings. Sure, we might not have enough power to elect board members in the early stages, but nothing builds a movement more than meeting up with like-minded people and confronting the enemy face to face. It would provide a forum for activists to make connections with one another, grow the movement, and get excited about the possibility of fighting climate change by being an engaged citizen. It's heart-breaking to me to see so much support given to this divestment movement -- I've never seen any of the major figures involved give a justification for why we should be divesting rather than fighting the corporations head on. Especially since proxy fights have a history of driving movement growth in the US. Divestment is a retreat. If climate change is really as much of a threat as most of us know it to be, then retreating should not be an option.

Brakenshire 11y ago
I have had a similar reaction before. But I think the alternative you offer is too rosy. There seems very little chance that shareholder activism will be able to stop oil companies looking for oil - that is their sole purpose and to a large degree their sole expertise. And there is a point to make that many fossil fuel assets will be stranded, and made worthless, if we do manage to limit emissions enough to stay below an increase of 2-3 degrees Celsius. The Bank of England and the IMF are both talking about this being another subprime issue. The divestment of pension funds, major charities and other similar organizations gives a better, more accurate sense of jeopardy – 'by all means, invest in these stocks, but bear in mind that you are taking a gamble, and don't be surprised if your investment goes belly up' and it also means that if such a retrenchment takes place the burden will fall on speculative private capital rather than important and structural social institutions. I would like to read more discussion about the issue, though.

hobarrera 11y ago

I'm all for getting rid of carbon fuels due to inefficiency, lack of scalability, etc. But, global warming? I would have expected better of educated people such as these. eg: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuj_tlRRQdQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuj_tlRRQdQ

rndn 11y ago
What about this: > Just over 97% of published climate researchers say humans are causing most global warming. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_...
- hobarrera 11y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argumentum_ad_populum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argumentum_ad_populum ? We should weight evidence, not amount of people behind it.
7952 11y ago
It is almost inconceivable that humans are not changing climate. The atmosphere is a chaotic system that is influenced by things that humans have directly changed. It is just difficult to quantify the magnitude of that change because there is no baseline that would show what the planet would be like without human activity. These endless arguments over the semantics of what scientists think is completely inane. We need educated people to actually understand how the environment works and stop treating it like some abstract concept that only exists inside some scientist's head. If you release millions of tons of stuff into the environment then it will have an effect that could be bad.
- hobarrera 11y ago
  > If you release millions of tons of stuff into the environment then it will have an effect that could be bad. You're quite right, it could have a bad effect, but we've yet to prove that climate changes are an effect of those gases we've released. One, quite important, detail, on climate change, is that a few several centuries ago, the earth was actually warmer by a few degrees that it is today. This would indicate that climate changes is not strictly due to the gases we're putting out, and that there are more complex variables in the system than what's being considered.

ziedaniel1 11y ago

97% environmentalist -- the same way he called himself 97% feminist: http://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=2091#comment-326664 http://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=2091#comment-326664