12 ms·

Mobile app startups are failing like it’s 1999

58 points by g42gregory 11y ago

orasis 11y ago
Things have actually gotten worse for us developers. I've noticed now that I'm taking a significant hit on App Store views when I release a new version. My best guess is that this is due to the reviews being reset on each release. If I'm out a couple of weeks of growth due to each new release I have every incentive to release less frequently.
- sohailk 11y ago
  my impression was that freshness and # of updates per release has an affect on ASO.
pan69 11y ago
I think it also has to do with the expectations users have these days. People use well polished apps all day long, so to push out a first iteration of a new app, for users (even early adaptors) to take the app "serious" it needs to have a certain level polish. Adding polish to an app is what takes most time.
davidu 11y ago
There is no date on this post or date in the URL. This could have been posted in 2001, 2002, 2003, etc...
- Aaron1011 11y ago
  It's probably around 2009 - there's a reference in the first paragraph to 'the last 10 years'
- deleted 11y ago
  [deleted]
- andrew_null 11y ago
  OP here. This was published Aug 15, 2012.
- hhog 11y ago
  here: http://andrewchen.co/2012/08/15/mobile-app-startups-are-failing-like-its-1999/ http://andrewchen.co/2012/08/15/mobile-app-startups-are-fail...
- barce 11y ago
  The publish date is in the source code.
tsunamifury 11y ago
Because the app store is turning out to be one of the worst things that has happened to the web. An entire generation of startups have poured their dreams into a disaggregated, narrowly distributed store model. The dreaminess of the iphone is finally wearing off, as we realize we can't solve really interesting problems within its restrictions. 1. Controlled, central distribution 2. No natural interconnectivity 3. No push update model 4. No community or central navigational paradigm other than iOS 5. No ability to distribute a genuinely new UX model 6. No real hardware access
- andrew_null 11y ago
  Android has a couple of these things.
- vardump 11y ago
  Slightly off-topic, but regarding shininess of iphone. My biggest issue with iOS it has no usable web browser. Zooming doesn't reflow column text to screen width. IMHO, the single most important feature in a mobile phone web browser. So now web site authors have started to make these horrendous mobile versions with zoom-locked viewports. Opera is still the only way to go for mobile phones. Note, not Opera Mini, but Opera. So far this issue has kept me away from iPhone.
  - ihuman 11y ago
    > Zooming doesn't reflow text I'm a bit confused. Why would you want that? Shouldn't zooming just make things bigger?
    - vardump 11y ago
      If I zoom, it doesn't mean I want to be forced to scroll horizontally back and forth. I don't understand why anyone would want to do that. When text reflows while zooming, you can choose exactly the size that is most readable for you. For example, if I read while walking, I usually make text size larger, because it improves reading speed. And you can comfortably use desktop versions of websites.
AlwaysBCoding 11y ago
I built my first mobile app this year (iOS) and I was appalled at how bad the tooling and development workflow for mobile was. Swift is a disaster, the app store approval process feels like going back 10 years in a time machine, debugging XCode is like trying to solve the riddle of the Sphinx, testing is hard, a reloaded dev workflow is non-existent... It's no wonder startups can't get out the door and quickly iterate on mobile. It's crystal clear that using web tooling and compiling Javascript to native components is the way forward here. It's just that tools like PhoneGap, Titanium, Cordova ... were half-baked solutions and never really excited me. This is why React Native is such a game-changing technology. If a startup can get to iOS and quickly iterate without being held back by XCode/Swift it's a massive competitive advantage. Let other companies spend millions and 9 months hiring 'iOS only' developers, and struggling to get a V1 to market when you can take just your existing model layer which is already rendering JavaScript somewhere anyway, and have it target iOS native without missing a beat. Really interested to see the fallout from React Native, especially once the Android library is released later this year.
- woah 11y ago
  Also, with react native you can push software updates over the wire without Apple even knowing.
  - kranner 11y ago
    App Store Review Guidelines 2.7 states: > Apps that download code in any way or form will be rejected If the platform terms ban it, it doesn't matter if it can be executed technically.
    - sportanova 11y ago
      It's allowed - there's an explicit exception for downloading code and executing it via WebKit http://info.meteor.com/blog/apple-hot-code-push-mobile http://info.meteor.com/blog/apple-hot-code-push-mobile
      - 11y ago
joelrunyon 11y ago
Yes. If you build something with zero customer feedback or marketing channel in place, would you really expect it to blow up right out of the gate? Ask yourself this question about ANY other business model? Sure, when the app store got started, you could throw something up and maybe get lucky because the competition wasn't there. That's changed, it's become more competitive and you have to bring more to the table. This is reflected in any market as it matures. I don't understand why people are freaking out about it. It's entirely possible to build an MVP with a few thousand dollars and a few months. Sure, failure is part of the process, but that's more of a factor due to these companies raising HUGE amounts of money on big visions before launching, failing to achieve product/market fit. In the VC world, that's a bust and you close up shop. If you're bootstrapped, that's a learning experience and a chance to pivot.
CodeCube 11y ago
I think it's really good that everyone is so paranoid about repeating "the bubble". Articles like these should continue coming out and tempering attitudes.
maguay 11y ago
Previous discussions: - 2012, 93 comments: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4389061 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4389061 - 2013, 51 comments: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5915989 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5915989
- chdir 11y ago
  This is the gem :). Eventually the blog will get it right.
barce 11y ago
I know that the date of this article has been outed, but if you view the source, that's another way to get the date: meta property="article:published_time" content="2012-08-15T16:43:53+00:00
alexashka 11y ago
What... on earth is this guy talking about... "The long cycle times for developing mobile apps have led to startup failures that look more like 1999 – it’s like we’ve forgotten all the agile and rapid iteration stuff that we learned over the last 10 years." That's not it. At all... Has this guy written ANY code himself? Long cycle = 6 months? Get a clue... What he's really saying is 'Gee, I thought there was easy money to be made by just throwing it at geeks who mention 'mobile' and it turns out, that doesn't quite work. I conclude that it must be the geeks' fault. I handle other people's money so I must know what's wrong - geeks forgot 'agile' and 'rapid' and 'iterative'. Surely it is not me who is the ignoramus here. I handle other people's money, I must know what software development is about. I handle other people's money and I write nice sounding things online to have more people trust me with their money, I am an expert at sounding like I know what I'm talking about.'
jliptzin 11y ago
It's really hard to push out code 2-3 times / week when you have 7-10 days review time for every change

58 points by g42gregory 11y ago

Things have actually gotten worse for us developers. I've noticed now that I'm taking a significant hit on App Store views when I release a new version. My best guess is that this is due to the reviews being reset on each release. If I'm out a couple of weeks of growth due to each new release I have every incentive to release less frequently.

sohailk 11y ago
my impression was that freshness and # of updates per release has an affect on ASO.

pan69 11y ago

I think it also has to do with the expectations users have these days. People use well polished apps all day long, so to push out a first iteration of a new app, for users (even early adaptors) to take the app "serious" it needs to have a certain level polish. Adding polish to an app is what takes most time.

davidu 11y ago

There is no date on this post or date in the URL. This could have been posted in 2001, 2002, 2003, etc...

Aaron1011 11y ago
It's probably around 2009 - there's a reference in the first paragraph to 'the last 10 years'
deleted 11y ago
[deleted]
andrew_null 11y ago
OP here. This was published Aug 15, 2012.
hhog 11y ago
here: http://andrewchen.co/2012/08/15/mobile-app-startups-are-failing-like-its-1999/ http://andrewchen.co/2012/08/15/mobile-app-startups-are-fail...
barce 11y ago
The publish date is in the source code.

tsunamifury 11y ago

Because the app store is turning out to be one of the worst things that has happened to the web. An entire generation of startups have poured their dreams into a disaggregated, narrowly distributed store model. The dreaminess of the iphone is finally wearing off, as we realize we can't solve really interesting problems within its restrictions. 1. Controlled, central distribution 2. No natural interconnectivity 3. No push update model 4. No community or central navigational paradigm other than iOS 5. No ability to distribute a genuinely new UX model 6. No real hardware access

andrew_null 11y ago
Android has a couple of these things.
vardump 11y ago
Slightly off-topic, but regarding shininess of iphone. My biggest issue with iOS it has no usable web browser. Zooming doesn't reflow column text to screen width. IMHO, the single most important feature in a mobile phone web browser. So now web site authors have started to make these horrendous mobile versions with zoom-locked viewports. Opera is still the only way to go for mobile phones. Note, not Opera Mini, but Opera. So far this issue has kept me away from iPhone.
- ihuman 11y ago
  > Zooming doesn't reflow text I'm a bit confused. Why would you want that? Shouldn't zooming just make things bigger?
  - vardump 11y ago
    If I zoom, it doesn't mean I want to be forced to scroll horizontally back and forth. I don't understand why anyone would want to do that. When text reflows while zooming, you can choose exactly the size that is most readable for you. For example, if I read while walking, I usually make text size larger, because it improves reading speed. And you can comfortably use desktop versions of websites.

AlwaysBCoding 11y ago

I built my first mobile app this year (iOS) and I was appalled at how bad the tooling and development workflow for mobile was. Swift is a disaster, the app store approval process feels like going back 10 years in a time machine, debugging XCode is like trying to solve the riddle of the Sphinx, testing is hard, a reloaded dev workflow is non-existent... It's no wonder startups can't get out the door and quickly iterate on mobile. It's crystal clear that using web tooling and compiling Javascript to native components is the way forward here. It's just that tools like PhoneGap, Titanium, Cordova ... were half-baked solutions and never really excited me. This is why React Native is such a game-changing technology. If a startup can get to iOS and quickly iterate without being held back by XCode/Swift it's a massive competitive advantage. Let other companies spend millions and 9 months hiring 'iOS only' developers, and struggling to get a V1 to market when you can take just your existing model layer which is already rendering JavaScript somewhere anyway, and have it target iOS native without missing a beat. Really interested to see the fallout from React Native, especially once the Android library is released later this year.

woah 11y ago
Also, with react native you can push software updates over the wire without Apple even knowing.
- kranner 11y ago
  App Store Review Guidelines 2.7 states: > Apps that download code in any way or form will be rejected If the platform terms ban it, it doesn't matter if it can be executed technically.
  - sportanova 11y ago
    It's allowed - there's an explicit exception for downloading code and executing it via WebKit http://info.meteor.com/blog/apple-hot-code-push-mobile http://info.meteor.com/blog/apple-hot-code-push-mobile
    - 11y ago

joelrunyon 11y ago

Yes. If you build something with zero customer feedback or marketing channel in place, would you really expect it to blow up right out of the gate? Ask yourself this question about ANY other business model? Sure, when the app store got started, you could throw something up and maybe get lucky because the competition wasn't there. That's changed, it's become more competitive and you have to bring more to the table. This is reflected in any market as it matures. I don't understand why people are freaking out about it. It's entirely possible to build an MVP with a few thousand dollars and a few months. Sure, failure is part of the process, but that's more of a factor due to these companies raising HUGE amounts of money on big visions before launching, failing to achieve product/market fit. In the VC world, that's a bust and you close up shop. If you're bootstrapped, that's a learning experience and a chance to pivot.

CodeCube 11y ago

I think it's really good that everyone is so paranoid about repeating "the bubble". Articles like these should continue coming out and tempering attitudes.

maguay 11y ago

Previous discussions: - 2012, 93 comments: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4389061 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4389061 - 2013, 51 comments: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5915989 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5915989

chdir 11y ago
This is the gem :). Eventually the blog will get it right.

barce 11y ago

I know that the date of this article has been outed, but if you view the source, that's another way to get the date: meta property="article:published_time" content="2012-08-15T16:43:53+00:00

alexashka 11y ago

What... on earth is this guy talking about... "The long cycle times for developing mobile apps have led to startup failures that look more like 1999 – it’s like we’ve forgotten all the agile and rapid iteration stuff that we learned over the last 10 years." That's not it. At all... Has this guy written ANY code himself? Long cycle = 6 months? Get a clue... What he's really saying is 'Gee, I thought there was easy money to be made by just throwing it at geeks who mention 'mobile' and it turns out, that doesn't quite work. I conclude that it must be the geeks' fault. I handle other people's money so I must know what's wrong - geeks forgot 'agile' and 'rapid' and 'iterative'. Surely it is not me who is the ignoramus here. I handle other people's money, I must know what software development is about. I handle other people's money and I write nice sounding things online to have more people trust me with their money, I am an expert at sounding like I know what I'm talking about.'

jliptzin 11y ago

It's really hard to push out code 2-3 times / week when you have 7-10 days review time for every change