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If China does reach South Korea in economic development, though, that means 25,977 USD in GDP per capita. With a population of around 1.35 billion, this means 3

If China does reach South Korea in economic development, though, that means 25,977 USD in GDP per capita. With a population of around 1.35 billion, this means 35 trillions of total GDP, more than twice as much as the U.S. Even more if it matches Taiwan, Japan, U.S. or Norway in GDP per capita, of course. Now, I think very few people are actually making the argument that China is going to be the most developed country on earth in per capita terms (the U.S. isn't, by most accounts that title belongs to one of the Nordic countries). What most people expect is for China to become a developed high-income country, which is pretty damn significant when we are talking about the most populous country on earth. More than one fifth of humanity joining the developed world is no small deal. It will have and is already having a massive impact in the economy, politics and environment world-wide. That said, whatever the challenges, it's hard to paint over a billion people going from poverty to developed-world-wealthy in about half a century as anything short of impressive. In general we are nearing the tipping point after which most of the world will count as a "developed" country by the metrics of the previous century, and China rising is a big part of that.

seanmcdirmid 11y ago
Reaching ROK levels of development are quite ideal, and a bit hard considering China's population is much larger. You'll see some cities that are quite rich (e.g. Shanghai), but if you go into the hinterland where most of the people still live, they are quite far from it; the Thai countryside in comparison is much richer. The caste system (i.e. hukou system) doesn't help with that. It will be interesting when China reaches Russia's level of GDP/person ($15K/year vs. $7k/year now), which should happen in a decade or so. > More than one fifth of humanity joining the developed world is no small deal. Income inequality is quite bad, that wealth is not spread out very evenly. It is not a fifth of humanity joining the developed world, but maybe a tenth or even less. China has huge challenges in lifting the boat more evenly, or there will be a lot more instability during the rise. Rooting out corruption and nepotism (under the guise of guanxi) is key to that. China is technically proficient, and has been one of the top countries for much of its history, so this it's re-rise is to be expected and is definitely not unprecedented.
- lazaroclapp 11y ago
  Expected and not unprecedented, sure. But still, a pretty big change as far as recent history goes. Certainly new in the post-industrial-revolution world. Income inequality seems indeed like a big issue. When discussing rising inequality in China, authors describe it as "quickly approaching Latin American levels of income inequality". I am from Mexico. I can tell you that reaching that bar is not a good idea. Also, I am sure that is one of plenty of challenges, not the only one by any measure. Still, given past performance and historical precedent, developing past those challenges is, as you say, expected and not unprecedented. Also, as far as I understand, income inequality within nations is quickly rising all over, but global income inequality is in general narrowing because of the gap between developed and developing countries closing, no?
  - seanmcdirmid 11y ago
    It is really hard to say, on the one hand we have: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/20/upshot/income-inequality-is-not-rising-globally-its-falling-.html?_r=0 http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/20/upshot/income-inequality-i... But if you look at China or India, which are getting richer, I think you'll see a lot of people not really benefiting from it. So while the middle class reaches some parity with the rest of the world, there are many people getting left behind.
- barry-cotter 11y ago
  Thailand has had the benefit of never suffering from communism, great natural beauty and really, really friendly people, along with being where loads of American G.I.s went for R&R during Vietnam. China suffered Communism, mostly Mao, may he rot, and has been recovering slowly since. But I'd be really, really surprised if China hasn't overtaken Thailand in per capita, purchasing power parity GDP. The fundamental reason I believe that is the same Deng Xiaoping did, he looked around Asia and the only place the Chinese weren't getting rich was China.
  - seanmcdirmid 11y ago
    Thailand and China are about at parity right now in GDP per capita, so the comparisons are apt. Thailand also has a lot of political instability to deal with (military coup anyone?), and is a more laid back tropical country (barring the very Chinese Bangkok).

seanmcdirmid 11y ago

Reaching ROK levels of development are quite ideal, and a bit hard considering China's population is much larger. You'll see some cities that are quite rich (e.g. Shanghai), but if you go into the hinterland where most of the people still live, they are quite far from it; the Thai countryside in comparison is much richer. The caste system (i.e. hukou system) doesn't help with that. It will be interesting when China reaches Russia's level of GDP/person ($15K/year vs. $7k/year now), which should happen in a decade or so. > More than one fifth of humanity joining the developed world is no small deal. Income inequality is quite bad, that wealth is not spread out very evenly. It is not a fifth of humanity joining the developed world, but maybe a tenth or even less. China has huge challenges in lifting the boat more evenly, or there will be a lot more instability during the rise. Rooting out corruption and nepotism (under the guise of guanxi) is key to that. China is technically proficient, and has been one of the top countries for much of its history, so this it's re-rise is to be expected and is definitely not unprecedented.

lazaroclapp 11y ago
Expected and not unprecedented, sure. But still, a pretty big change as far as recent history goes. Certainly new in the post-industrial-revolution world. Income inequality seems indeed like a big issue. When discussing rising inequality in China, authors describe it as "quickly approaching Latin American levels of income inequality". I am from Mexico. I can tell you that reaching that bar is not a good idea. Also, I am sure that is one of plenty of challenges, not the only one by any measure. Still, given past performance and historical precedent, developing past those challenges is, as you say, expected and not unprecedented. Also, as far as I understand, income inequality within nations is quickly rising all over, but global income inequality is in general narrowing because of the gap between developed and developing countries closing, no?
- seanmcdirmid 11y ago
  It is really hard to say, on the one hand we have: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/20/upshot/income-inequality-is-not-rising-globally-its-falling-.html?_r=0 http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/20/upshot/income-inequality-i... But if you look at China or India, which are getting richer, I think you'll see a lot of people not really benefiting from it. So while the middle class reaches some parity with the rest of the world, there are many people getting left behind.
barry-cotter 11y ago
Thailand has had the benefit of never suffering from communism, great natural beauty and really, really friendly people, along with being where loads of American G.I.s went for R&R during Vietnam. China suffered Communism, mostly Mao, may he rot, and has been recovering slowly since. But I'd be really, really surprised if China hasn't overtaken Thailand in per capita, purchasing power parity GDP. The fundamental reason I believe that is the same Deng Xiaoping did, he looked around Asia and the only place the Chinese weren't getting rich was China.
- seanmcdirmid 11y ago
  Thailand and China are about at parity right now in GDP per capita, so the comparisons are apt. Thailand also has a lot of political instability to deal with (military coup anyone?), and is a more laid back tropical country (barring the very Chinese Bangkok).