5 ms·

isn't all this just a matter of time? https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/guest-post-5-chinese-ghost-cities-came-alive/ https://www.bullionstar.com/b

by presty 11y ago

isn't all this just a matter of time? https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/guest-post-5-chinese-ghost-cities-came-alive/ https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/guest-post-5-c... http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2015/04/21/the-myth-of-chinas-ghost-cities/ http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2015/04/21/the-myth-of...

cthalupa 11y ago
This is probably the most relevant comment in the thread. These ghost cities start that way, but they all end up being populated, and as soon as the flood gates open, they fill up fast. It just takes certain factors reaching critical mass to push them from the 'No one is living there' to 'Everyone is moving in and filling the entire place up' Edit: Looks like it's already begun in Ordos as well. http://tmagazine.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/03/06/ordos-china-tourist-city/ http://tmagazine.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/03/06/ordos-china-to... As usual, the initial settling is largely happening due to the Chinese government applying artificial levers to get people to move there, but that's a tactic they've used successfully on a lot of these "ghost towns"
- iiiggglll 11y ago
  Sound like China is planning ahead. Contrast this with the American problem of nothing new being built: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-07/here-s-how-much-new-york-and-san-francisco-s-tight-housing-markets-are-hurting-the-economy http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-07/here-s-how...
  - adventured 11y ago
    That sounds fine, if it all works out as planned. China is about to become the most indebted nation. At the rapid pace they're accumulating debt, that should happen within the next few years. They've spent wildly to keep the building spree going; even now their real estate market is crashing, it has been falling for a year. It begs a simple question: how many more people can China transition out of old China's poverty, and into the new China's middle class, before they run out of the ability to accumulate more debt to keep it all going (global consumers are tapped out, which has left China's manufacturing boom dead in the water, with their PMI contracting during a supposed non-recessionary period). I fail to see how thinking ahead equates to taking on tens of trillions in new debt to fake economic growth. That sounds like they're baking up an economic recipe for future stagnation.
    - coliveira 11y ago
      Excellent comment. China overdid their stimulus package in 2008 because of the need to keep the jobs coming. If would have been much better for them if they had used 2008 to slow the growth rhythm to something sustainable (4 to 5%). I think they are now headed to a very difficult transition, probably Japanese-style, because of so much debt.
      - gbog 11y ago
        I don't know for Chinese gov but I know for sure that Chinese families are not used to buy expensive things with money they don't have, so no, I don't agree: China as a whole has a lot of real money in the pockets.
        coliveira 11y ago
        This doesn't make any difference. The Japanese are even more frugal than the Chinese, that is why they have been able to support a deflationary economy for more than 20 years.
dnautics 11y ago
And it's just a matter of time yet that these cities become the equivalent of America's hated suburbs. Cities like Greenbelt, MD, and Levittown, NY - planned large communities where everyone can enjoy a picket fence and a driveway. Soon, perhaps, china, too, will have a director that makes a film about the ennui of living in a planned community prominently featuring as a main character a floating plastic bag.
- gbog 11y ago
  I have been living in China for ten years now, and every time I go to some forgotten fourth tier city or to remote suburbs, I am amazed that so many people live there in a relative harmony and strangers and foreigner can walk around without any risk for their lives or wallets. Nothing compared to so called developed countries whose suburbs cops and even firefighter don't dare going.
coliveira 11y ago
In China, even part of real cities are ghost-like. I have a friend who has family in China, and each of their relatives have one or more empty apartments there. They do this because it is one of the few investments Chinese are allowed to make, and they don't need to pay property taxes. If you consider this, ghost cities are not even the biggest problem with Chinese real estate. I see this as a pyramid scheme. The local municipalities can get away with not charging taxes because so many new construction is going on. But a few years from now when construction has slowed down, they will need money for schools, hospitals, etc. By that time they will have to charge taxes and it will become a losing proposition to maintain empty properties.
MadcapJake 11y ago
Definitely. Plus, the hype that these ghost cities articles try to build feels really forced. How much emotion can you really capture with a picture of ordinary buildings...just without people walking by. I'm sure there are people there too and the photographers just wait for a good moment when no one is walking/driving by to snap the photo. (Some of the photos from this article even have cars and people there too...)

by presty 11y ago

cthalupa 11y ago

This is probably the most relevant comment in the thread. These ghost cities start that way, but they all end up being populated, and as soon as the flood gates open, they fill up fast. It just takes certain factors reaching critical mass to push them from the 'No one is living there' to 'Everyone is moving in and filling the entire place up' Edit: Looks like it's already begun in Ordos as well. http://tmagazine.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/03/06/ordos-china-tourist-city/ http://tmagazine.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/03/06/ordos-china-to... As usual, the initial settling is largely happening due to the Chinese government applying artificial levers to get people to move there, but that's a tactic they've used successfully on a lot of these "ghost towns"

iiiggglll 11y ago
Sound like China is planning ahead. Contrast this with the American problem of nothing new being built: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-07/here-s-how-much-new-york-and-san-francisco-s-tight-housing-markets-are-hurting-the-economy http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-07/here-s-how...
- adventured 11y ago
  That sounds fine, if it all works out as planned. China is about to become the most indebted nation. At the rapid pace they're accumulating debt, that should happen within the next few years. They've spent wildly to keep the building spree going; even now their real estate market is crashing, it has been falling for a year. It begs a simple question: how many more people can China transition out of old China's poverty, and into the new China's middle class, before they run out of the ability to accumulate more debt to keep it all going (global consumers are tapped out, which has left China's manufacturing boom dead in the water, with their PMI contracting during a supposed non-recessionary period). I fail to see how thinking ahead equates to taking on tens of trillions in new debt to fake economic growth. That sounds like they're baking up an economic recipe for future stagnation.
  - coliveira 11y ago
    Excellent comment. China overdid their stimulus package in 2008 because of the need to keep the jobs coming. If would have been much better for them if they had used 2008 to slow the growth rhythm to something sustainable (4 to 5%). I think they are now headed to a very difficult transition, probably Japanese-style, because of so much debt.
    - gbog 11y ago
      I don't know for Chinese gov but I know for sure that Chinese families are not used to buy expensive things with money they don't have, so no, I don't agree: China as a whole has a lot of real money in the pockets.
      - coliveira 11y ago
        This doesn't make any difference. The Japanese are even more frugal than the Chinese, that is why they have been able to support a deflationary economy for more than 20 years.

dnautics 11y ago

And it's just a matter of time yet that these cities become the equivalent of America's hated suburbs. Cities like Greenbelt, MD, and Levittown, NY - planned large communities where everyone can enjoy a picket fence and a driveway. Soon, perhaps, china, too, will have a director that makes a film about the ennui of living in a planned community prominently featuring as a main character a floating plastic bag.

gbog 11y ago
I have been living in China for ten years now, and every time I go to some forgotten fourth tier city or to remote suburbs, I am amazed that so many people live there in a relative harmony and strangers and foreigner can walk around without any risk for their lives or wallets. Nothing compared to so called developed countries whose suburbs cops and even firefighter don't dare going.

coliveira 11y ago

In China, even part of real cities are ghost-like. I have a friend who has family in China, and each of their relatives have one or more empty apartments there. They do this because it is one of the few investments Chinese are allowed to make, and they don't need to pay property taxes. If you consider this, ghost cities are not even the biggest problem with Chinese real estate. I see this as a pyramid scheme. The local municipalities can get away with not charging taxes because so many new construction is going on. But a few years from now when construction has slowed down, they will need money for schools, hospitals, etc. By that time they will have to charge taxes and it will become a losing proposition to maintain empty properties.

MadcapJake 11y ago

Definitely. Plus, the hype that these ghost cities articles try to build feels really forced. How much emotion can you really capture with a picture of ordinary buildings...just without people walking by. I'm sure there are people there too and the photographers just wait for a good moment when no one is walking/driving by to snap the photo. (Some of the photos from this article even have cars and people there too...)