11 ms·

Economy Looks Like It's Picking Up Which Could Mean a Slowdown in Tech Investing

36 points by rudimental 11y ago

the-dude 11y ago
I think the premise the economy will 'pick up' is highly questionable. Furthermore I think we will see very low interest rates in the US and Europe for a long long time.
- digitalzombie 11y ago
  What would make you say that? I've seen other reports saying that unemployment rate have gone down and also companies hiring is low. Which is pretty bad imo. But I'm curious to see if there are any other indicators that the economy is not going to pick up any time soon.
  - the-dude 11y ago
    Unemployment rates are hard to interpret without context : some countries consider a 4-hour/week job as 'employed' ( US? ). In The Netherlands the unemployment rate fell not because there are more jobs, but because people are exiting the labor force ( retirees, baby-boom ). edit: typo
    - pjc50 11y ago
      The UK has done something similar with pushing a large number of people into "self-employment" where their hours are not verifiable.
      - blumkvist 11y ago
        But what's the the alternative? MANY people consult and freelance. They are not unemployed. Moreover, their income does not necessarily tie to hours worked.
        justincormack 11y ago
        Sure, but surveys suggest that many self employed people would like to get more work, and that they have significantly lower incomes than when they were employed. The best data is from the RSA https://www.thersa.org/discover/publications-and-articles/reports/salvation-in-a-start-up/ https://www.thersa.org/discover/publications-and-articles/re...
        the-dude 11y ago
        Many of these people are forced into self-employment because : no jobs. See also : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precariat http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precariat
        blumkvist 11y ago
        Oh god... basic income... AGAIN in the HN comments. It becomes VERY difficult to believe this is not sponsored propaganda. It's in pretty much every thread now.
        the-dude 11y ago
        Don't put words into my mouth : I didn't mention basic income, I pointed to the 'precariat'. Which is very real in my perception.
        hnnewguy 11y ago
        Those people are considered unemployed in the U6 measure. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
        pjc50 11y ago
        This is subtly different. It's also not well-documented, but there have been some investigations: http://watchinga4e.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/radio-5-live-investigates-self.html http://watchinga4e.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/radio-5-live-inves... From a longer blog post: http://www.harrowell.org.uk/blog/2013/03/03/the-transition-towards-a-low-trust-society/ http://www.harrowell.org.uk/blog/2013/03/03/the-transition-t... - note the detail that people on "work programme" placements are not counted as unemployed. See https://welfaretales.wordpress.com/category/work-program-2/ https://welfaretales.wordpress.com/category/work-program-2/ The "sharing economy" is another factor in this. If someone signs up for e.g. Taskrabbit and does a few hours a week, they're then "self-employed" and no longer count against the unemployment statistics, they can claim tax credit (especially if they have a child, you get quite a lot) and housing benefit to cover for the fact that the 'work' pays nowhere near enough to live on.
    - minikites 11y ago
      It's important to remember that the US Government's Bureau of Labor Statistics counts six separate unemployment rates, there isn't just one: U1: Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer. U2: Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work. U3: Official unemployment rate per the ILO definition occurs when people are without jobs and they have actively looked for work within the past four weeks. U4: U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them. U5: U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently. U6: U5 + Part-time workers who want to work full-time, but cannot due to economic reasons (underemployment).
  - honksillet 11y ago
    Well Q1 GDP was 0.2% and that could well be revised into negative territory. (http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/glance.htm http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/glance.htm) The two data points the article cites does not a robust economy make.
- marincounty 11y ago
  In the United States I am questioning the need to keep the federal interest rate so low. Yes, it might have brought us out of depression?(I still wonder what the outcome would have been if Bush let the banks go bankrupt?) Back to these low interest rates. At this point in the recovery, I am just seeing rich people playing with essentially free money--taking some big risks, but I don't see it trickling down to the middle class and poor--in most cases. I see this essentially free money being funneled into the stock market, because there's no where else to put the money, except real estate, and speculative VC investments. That's fine and dandy, but the poor and middle class are having a hell of a time getting loans. They are essentially locked out of the party? Yes, the middle class is greatful their Company retirement plan is soaring, but it will drop. Many of us(poor, middle class) speculate in CD's, and in my case I am getting .1 percent per year-- on my meager account. I can't afford to speculate. I don't think I am alone. I counted on the interest I used to make. It's gone. I now pay the bank more in fees than I get in interest. In my case, I have a negative rate of return on my money. My point is I don't see this essentially free money the rich are getting trickling down, with the exception of the tech industry. You guys seem to be doing great, and you guys deserve it. And yes, their are hot spots like the Bay Area where houses are way up in value, but so are rents. Rents have gone up so high long term residents are being forced to relocate. What I am trying to convey--poorly--is I don't think the economy is doing that great. Food stamp usage is at an all time high? The unemployment number is beyond skewed because they stop including you in that figure once that check stops--I believe? Student loans are at an all time high. Small and medium sized business are having a hard time securing those low interest loans. I see so many Homeless. I my county, section 8 housing is closed, and there's a three year waiting list. I honestly don't see the variety of jobs like I did before the ression. People are so desperate for work they are buying newer(2008) four door cars in order to work for Uber. Non profits are closing--some deserve to close, but some of the better ones are not getting the donations like in years past. I can go on, but getting tired. My major point is so many of us are losing net value in this low interest rate economy. The renters who rely of cd's to hold their money are hurting. I don't blame anyone politically. I'm glad medically uninsurable home owners don't need to risk losing their home in a medical judgement attachment thanks to Obama, and a Supreme Court justice.(forget his name, but he is a kind man, and a Rebublican!) I see another ression coming real quick. I hope families stick together, and pool their resources--and don't blame the wrong people when the chit hits. I'm usually 180 degrees wrong when it come to money--so I'll dummy up. Sorry--just venting!
lessthunk 11y ago
the US economy is not doing well; As long as interest rates remain so low, ever more money will plow into VCs/startup investing to get better returns.
pjc50 11y ago
In Europe, we should not forget that the situation of Greece has not yet been resolved and the country has resorted to shuffling every internal bank account in order to pay the IMF. The next final demand notice arrives on June 5. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11617208/Greek-default-woes-hit-the-euro.html http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11617208/Greek-...
bsbechtel 11y ago
I'm wondering if the issue here is not 'the economy is picking up, let's invest elsewhere', but rather that investors don't have investment vehicles to put their money into other areas of the economy that need it most. The public markets are booming, and so is the tech sector, which I am guessing has a greater chance of a liquidity event than businesses in most other industries. While these two areas are doing fine, the small business sector, which is the largest portion of our economy, continues to struggle to get access to capital. Many of these small businesses could generate 20-30% returns, but investors have no way to easily get their money back out of the business - they'll never IPO, and a private acquisition is rare. This lack of liquidity in one of the largest asset classes of our economy seems to be the major bottleneck we're facing right now. EDIT: I should add....the JOBS act and Crowdfunding are giving small businesses and entrepreneurs more options for finding funding, but getting a return on that investment still remains a question. In addition, crowdfunding as an industry is somewhere maybe in the billions, whereas the financial services sector is in the trillions, so the impact is still relatively small, although growing fast.
- cma 11y ago
  Why not just pay a dividend?
  - bsbechtel 11y ago
    Not entirely sure, but I am guessing it's for the same reason debt isn't a super desirable form of financing for small businesses - cash flow is hard to manage.
simpleblend 11y ago
If you look closer at all the jobs being created, they're mostly part-time and for the elderly. The US government is lying. The economy is not recovering. The FED can't raise rates without sending the economy back into recession. QE 4 will soon be here.
- adventured 11y ago
  The US has added six million full-time jobs in four years. Almost all job growth has been in full-time employment. Source: BLS http://i.imgur.com/AUkWSN9.png http://i.imgur.com/AUkWSN9.png It's not a question of if the economy has recovered. It has. The question is whether the gains can be kept and added to.
  - toomuchtodo 11y ago
    The number of jobs has gone up, its just that they'll all shit jobs. Your graph does a disservice by omitting the wages paid by those new jobs. http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/05/the-new-normal-for-young-workers/393560/?google_editors_picks=true http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/05/the-new-...
jalonso510 11y ago
The problem with this analysis is that the VC's investing money in companies aren't choosing between various asset classes - they have funds committed to their investment thesis, so they aren't going to go invest somewhere else if returns start looking better in other sectors. It's the LPs who theoretically may allocate less money to the VC's if they see better yields elsewhere, but their fund commitments are long term and take a long time to change. Funds have a life of 7-10 years and lots of folks have just raised new funds, so there's a lot locked in that will keep going into startups for a while now.
- serve_yay 11y ago
  Right, but where does VCs' money come from? The money gets to choose asset classes. VCs aren't the money, they just choose how to invest the money. All of which is not to say I agree with the analysis.
  - jalonso510 11y ago
    right, my point is just that the money is already committed to the VCs for the next 7-10 years so can't change that quickly.

36 points by rudimental 11y ago

I think the premise the economy will 'pick up' is highly questionable. Furthermore I think we will see very low interest rates in the US and Europe for a long long time.

digitalzombie 11y ago
What would make you say that? I've seen other reports saying that unemployment rate have gone down and also companies hiring is low. Which is pretty bad imo. But I'm curious to see if there are any other indicators that the economy is not going to pick up any time soon.
- the-dude 11y ago
  Unemployment rates are hard to interpret without context : some countries consider a 4-hour/week job as 'employed' ( US? ). In The Netherlands the unemployment rate fell not because there are more jobs, but because people are exiting the labor force ( retirees, baby-boom ). edit: typo
  - pjc50 11y ago
    The UK has done something similar with pushing a large number of people into "self-employment" where their hours are not verifiable.
    - blumkvist 11y ago
      But what's the the alternative? MANY people consult and freelance. They are not unemployed. Moreover, their income does not necessarily tie to hours worked.
      - justincormack 11y ago
        Sure, but surveys suggest that many self employed people would like to get more work, and that they have significantly lower incomes than when they were employed. The best data is from the RSA https://www.thersa.org/discover/publications-and-articles/reports/salvation-in-a-start-up/ https://www.thersa.org/discover/publications-and-articles/re...
      - the-dude 11y ago
        Many of these people are forced into self-employment because : no jobs. See also : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precariat http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precariat
        blumkvist 11y ago
        Oh god... basic income... AGAIN in the HN comments. It becomes VERY difficult to believe this is not sponsored propaganda. It's in pretty much every thread now.
        the-dude 11y ago
        Don't put words into my mouth : I didn't mention basic income, I pointed to the 'precariat'. Which is very real in my perception.
        hnnewguy 11y ago
        Those people are considered unemployed in the U6 measure. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
      - pjc50 11y ago
        This is subtly different. It's also not well-documented, but there have been some investigations: http://watchinga4e.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/radio-5-live-investigates-self.html http://watchinga4e.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/radio-5-live-inves... From a longer blog post: http://www.harrowell.org.uk/blog/2013/03/03/the-transition-towards-a-low-trust-society/ http://www.harrowell.org.uk/blog/2013/03/03/the-transition-t... - note the detail that people on "work programme" placements are not counted as unemployed. See https://welfaretales.wordpress.com/category/work-program-2/ https://welfaretales.wordpress.com/category/work-program-2/ The "sharing economy" is another factor in this. If someone signs up for e.g. Taskrabbit and does a few hours a week, they're then "self-employed" and no longer count against the unemployment statistics, they can claim tax credit (especially if they have a child, you get quite a lot) and housing benefit to cover for the fact that the 'work' pays nowhere near enough to live on.
  - minikites 11y ago
    It's important to remember that the US Government's Bureau of Labor Statistics counts six separate unemployment rates, there isn't just one: U1: Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer. U2: Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work. U3: Official unemployment rate per the ILO definition occurs when people are without jobs and they have actively looked for work within the past four weeks. U4: U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them. U5: U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently. U6: U5 + Part-time workers who want to work full-time, but cannot due to economic reasons (underemployment).
- honksillet 11y ago
  Well Q1 GDP was 0.2% and that could well be revised into negative territory. (http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/glance.htm http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/glance.htm) The two data points the article cites does not a robust economy make.
marincounty 11y ago
In the United States I am questioning the need to keep the federal interest rate so low. Yes, it might have brought us out of depression?(I still wonder what the outcome would have been if Bush let the banks go bankrupt?) Back to these low interest rates. At this point in the recovery, I am just seeing rich people playing with essentially free money--taking some big risks, but I don't see it trickling down to the middle class and poor--in most cases. I see this essentially free money being funneled into the stock market, because there's no where else to put the money, except real estate, and speculative VC investments. That's fine and dandy, but the poor and middle class are having a hell of a time getting loans. They are essentially locked out of the party? Yes, the middle class is greatful their Company retirement plan is soaring, but it will drop. Many of us(poor, middle class) speculate in CD's, and in my case I am getting .1 percent per year-- on my meager account. I can't afford to speculate. I don't think I am alone. I counted on the interest I used to make. It's gone. I now pay the bank more in fees than I get in interest. In my case, I have a negative rate of return on my money. My point is I don't see this essentially free money the rich are getting trickling down, with the exception of the tech industry. You guys seem to be doing great, and you guys deserve it. And yes, their are hot spots like the Bay Area where houses are way up in value, but so are rents. Rents have gone up so high long term residents are being forced to relocate. What I am trying to convey--poorly--is I don't think the economy is doing that great. Food stamp usage is at an all time high? The unemployment number is beyond skewed because they stop including you in that figure once that check stops--I believe? Student loans are at an all time high. Small and medium sized business are having a hard time securing those low interest loans. I see so many Homeless. I my county, section 8 housing is closed, and there's a three year waiting list. I honestly don't see the variety of jobs like I did before the ression. People are so desperate for work they are buying newer(2008) four door cars in order to work for Uber. Non profits are closing--some deserve to close, but some of the better ones are not getting the donations like in years past. I can go on, but getting tired. My major point is so many of us are losing net value in this low interest rate economy. The renters who rely of cd's to hold their money are hurting. I don't blame anyone politically. I'm glad medically uninsurable home owners don't need to risk losing their home in a medical judgement attachment thanks to Obama, and a Supreme Court justice.(forget his name, but he is a kind man, and a Rebublican!) I see another ression coming real quick. I hope families stick together, and pool their resources--and don't blame the wrong people when the chit hits. I'm usually 180 degrees wrong when it come to money--so I'll dummy up. Sorry--just venting!

lessthunk 11y ago

the US economy is not doing well; As long as interest rates remain so low, ever more money will plow into VCs/startup investing to get better returns.

pjc50 11y ago

In Europe, we should not forget that the situation of Greece has not yet been resolved and the country has resorted to shuffling every internal bank account in order to pay the IMF. The next final demand notice arrives on June 5. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11617208/Greek-default-woes-hit-the-euro.html http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11617208/Greek-...

bsbechtel 11y ago

I'm wondering if the issue here is not 'the economy is picking up, let's invest elsewhere', but rather that investors don't have investment vehicles to put their money into other areas of the economy that need it most. The public markets are booming, and so is the tech sector, which I am guessing has a greater chance of a liquidity event than businesses in most other industries. While these two areas are doing fine, the small business sector, which is the largest portion of our economy, continues to struggle to get access to capital. Many of these small businesses could generate 20-30% returns, but investors have no way to easily get their money back out of the business - they'll never IPO, and a private acquisition is rare. This lack of liquidity in one of the largest asset classes of our economy seems to be the major bottleneck we're facing right now. EDIT: I should add....the JOBS act and Crowdfunding are giving small businesses and entrepreneurs more options for finding funding, but getting a return on that investment still remains a question. In addition, crowdfunding as an industry is somewhere maybe in the billions, whereas the financial services sector is in the trillions, so the impact is still relatively small, although growing fast.

cma 11y ago
Why not just pay a dividend?
- bsbechtel 11y ago
  Not entirely sure, but I am guessing it's for the same reason debt isn't a super desirable form of financing for small businesses - cash flow is hard to manage.

simpleblend 11y ago

If you look closer at all the jobs being created, they're mostly part-time and for the elderly. The US government is lying. The economy is not recovering. The FED can't raise rates without sending the economy back into recession. QE 4 will soon be here.

adventured 11y ago
The US has added six million full-time jobs in four years. Almost all job growth has been in full-time employment. Source: BLS http://i.imgur.com/AUkWSN9.png http://i.imgur.com/AUkWSN9.png It's not a question of if the economy has recovered. It has. The question is whether the gains can be kept and added to.
- toomuchtodo 11y ago
  The number of jobs has gone up, its just that they'll all shit jobs. Your graph does a disservice by omitting the wages paid by those new jobs. http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/05/the-new-normal-for-young-workers/393560/?google_editors_picks=true http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/05/the-new-...

jalonso510 11y ago

The problem with this analysis is that the VC's investing money in companies aren't choosing between various asset classes - they have funds committed to their investment thesis, so they aren't going to go invest somewhere else if returns start looking better in other sectors. It's the LPs who theoretically may allocate less money to the VC's if they see better yields elsewhere, but their fund commitments are long term and take a long time to change. Funds have a life of 7-10 years and lots of folks have just raised new funds, so there's a lot locked in that will keep going into startups for a while now.

serve_yay 11y ago
Right, but where does VCs' money come from? The money gets to choose asset classes. VCs aren't the money, they just choose how to invest the money. All of which is not to say I agree with the analysis.
- jalonso510 11y ago
  right, my point is just that the money is already committed to the VCs for the next 7-10 years so can't change that quickly.