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Today I learned that WhatsApp is 5 times more valuable than AOL - and I never understood either of these companies' market.. Interesting though - that company

Today I learned that WhatsApp is 5 times more valuable than AOL - and I never understood either of these companies' market.. Interesting though - that company 'felt' like a giant when I seriously got into using the web and although the article seems to imply that the operations of AOL continue (using the AOL brand?) it's fascinating to see such a company being swallowed.

aylons 11y ago
Sorry, but why do you believe WhatsApp is overvalued? They have an incredible mindshare, it is the only app (besides Facebook), that I see moms and grandmas using on a daily basis. Heck, my mom talk to me mostly through it. She evens send me emoticons, pictures and voice notes!
- chii 11y ago
  has your mom or other people you know ever paid for whatsapp? I know i've never seen anyone pay, just anecdotally.
  - sangnoir 11y ago
    I've paid for myself and my mother-in-law (you can pay for a contact's subscription)
- epmatsw 11y ago
  I've never seen a person in the US actually use WhatsApp to talk to another person in the US. I used to occasionally see someone use it to talk to friends who were traveling abroad, but that's mostly been replaced by iMessage or Hangouts at this point.
  - tjbiddle 11y ago
    You answered your own question: In the US. WhatsApp is huge outside of the US. If memory serves correctly, SMS has always been expensive and MMS never really took off - once the data messaging platform came to be WhatsApp really served that market and has done well because of it.
  - wpietri 11y ago
    Whatsapp is hugely popular in many places, just not here: http://www.statista.com/statistics/291540/mobile-internet-user-whatsapp/ http://www.statista.com/statistics/291540/mobile-internet-us...
  - sangnoir 11y ago
    Outside of the US, not everyone has a phone capable of running iMessage or Hangouts. WhatsApp happily runs on feature-phones, because of network effects, many people who can run iMessage/Hangouts and WhatsApp
  - mikeash 11y ago
    WhatsApp's user base is largely non-US, so I wouldn't expect you'd see many people in the US using it compared to its actual popularity.
  - binxbolling 11y ago
    I've paid for WhatsApp and am in the US. Yes, I originally joined to chat with people overseas, but now it's also the sole messaging service I use with multiple US-based contacts. AMA I guess, since apparently fellow Americans don't understand WhatsApp.
    - nullrouted 11y ago
      Ya I never really used WhatsApp but I do use Telegram for my friends (US). Why Telegram over WhatsApp or Kik or whatever? Desktop client, it is nice to be able to reply without pulling out my phone at work.
      - nly 11y ago
        Well, there's Whatsapp Web, but it oddly requires you keep your phone connected.
    - oldmanjay 11y ago
      Replace "understand" with "care about" and it's a double win - you're closer to the truth, and you aren't condescending in service of defending your favored corporation.
- MarkMc 11y ago
  Because on average they only make about $0.05 per user per year [1]. I think they will struggle to grow that figure because messaging apps have very little lock-in. My friend John doesn't want to pay $1 to get WhatsApp? No problem - we can just use Telegram instead. [1] http://techcrunch.com/2014/10/28/whatsapp-revenue/ http://techcrunch.com/2014/10/28/whatsapp-revenue/
  - sesutton 11y ago
    According to those numbers each WhatsApp user was only worth $4.66 to Facebook. That means WhatsApp needs to add 3.3 billion users to be worth the extra $15 billion.
- darklajid 11y ago
  It's .. an IM app (and arguably it wasn't a good one/a broken one for quite a while). Like AOL offered? ICQ? MSN? Okay, all dead. Xmpp? Skype? Lync? Hangout? Telegram? TextSecure? etc. etc. I'm sure I forgot lots of somewhat sensible/popular options. Basically it's not doing a lot, there are lots of alternatives, I see no way to keep users - or make them pay anything. I mean, I guess they pay with their privacy and/or first-born now that FB owns WhatsApp, but .. I - this is just me, my opinion - fail to see the point. Plus, I said that I - again, as in me personally - don't understand these companies and what they offer. No need to agree ofc. I haven't been an AOL user, I don't have a FB account or a WhatsApp account. My mom has no smart phone. My dad doesn't use WhatsApp as far as I know. Last but not least: Why would I want to get emoticons(?) or voice notes(??) from my mom? The former is .. useless. The latter? We use my smart _phone_ as a phone for that. I guess if you don't understand the value something brings to the table, everything is overvalued. I don't understand the value of smart watches. I don't understand the pay grade of football (as in, soccer) players. That doesn't mean that I want to slight the things I mention (or could add to the list), it's just that I am unable to understand these valuations. To see the value, you .. need to find value in something?
  - jamesjyu 11y ago
    "To see the value, you .. need to find value in something?" I disagree. I think everyone is capable of empathizing with a market and understanding why something would bring value, even if it doesn't bring value to you specifically.
    - darklajid 11y ago
      That's fair. But it doesn't work like that for me. Now that I think about it, I can come up two reasons: 1) The sums involved. Both for the deals in question (AOL, WhatsApp) or in my football example, the sums are mind-bendingly large. I .. cannot grasp those. Millions are already insane, but billions? I have no clue how to value _anything_ at those levels. Certainly not things that aren't entirely new or special. My gut feeling says "That's far too much" a lot earlier already, more or less regardless of what we're talking about. 2) I guess the market is hard to estimate if you're not only not part of it, you're actively surrounding yourself with people that are like-minded. Sure, every WhatsApp user can tell a story about friends and family getting a lot of value out of it. Of course! In a similar fashion I can point out that none of my family members (as far as I'm aware) use it, none of my friends seems to require it, it .. doesn't exist in my ecosystem and the last person that asked if I am on WhatsApp - about 3 month ago - was a manager at work. I mean.. WTH? "No, and certainly not for work". It's reinforcing the initial position, confirming my bias. "No one uses it, no one needs it". Then again, maybe that _is_ a lack of empathy. You're the judge. I merely express my disbelief and sense of wonder here, if everyone thinks these values are cool then yes, I'm obviously wrong.
stevewilhelm 11y ago
WhatsApp has about a quarter of a billion (with a 'B') users worldwide.
- eueueu 11y ago
  how much do they pay WhatsApp each month?
  - nostrademons 11y ago
    How much does your average TV viewer pay NBC/CBS/ABC/Fox per month?
    - flippant 11y ago
      That is an unfair analogy. Those networks make money from advertising. WhatsApp refuses to show ads.
      - nostrademons 11y ago
        Facebook has no such compunctions, though, which may be why Whatsapp is worth significantly more to Facebook than it is to Whatsapp.
  - flippant 11y ago
    Approximately 10 cents.
  - sososoko 11y ago
    this reminds of a recent episode of Silicon Valley, the eccentric billionaire Hanneman says, "If you show revenue, people will ask how much, and it will never be enough, It’s not about how much you earn but what you’re worth.....” Initially i didn't see the sense in the Whatsapp acquisition, i think it was purely defensive, as well as the data FB could get their hands on.
  - gdilla 11y ago
    pretty irrelevant. FB is a publicly traded company, and as such, it's pretty easy to see how much a social user is 'worth' in revenue terms. Instagram turned on ads, and so will whatsapp, perhaps. but ya, we have a pretty good understanding what social users are worth when monetized by social ads. And the value is influenced by future growth.

aylons 11y ago

Sorry, but why do you believe WhatsApp is overvalued? They have an incredible mindshare, it is the only app (besides Facebook), that I see moms and grandmas using on a daily basis. Heck, my mom talk to me mostly through it. She evens send me emoticons, pictures and voice notes!

chii 11y ago
has your mom or other people you know ever paid for whatsapp? I know i've never seen anyone pay, just anecdotally.
- sangnoir 11y ago
  I've paid for myself and my mother-in-law (you can pay for a contact's subscription)
epmatsw 11y ago
I've never seen a person in the US actually use WhatsApp to talk to another person in the US. I used to occasionally see someone use it to talk to friends who were traveling abroad, but that's mostly been replaced by iMessage or Hangouts at this point.
- tjbiddle 11y ago
  You answered your own question: In the US. WhatsApp is huge outside of the US. If memory serves correctly, SMS has always been expensive and MMS never really took off - once the data messaging platform came to be WhatsApp really served that market and has done well because of it.
- wpietri 11y ago
  Whatsapp is hugely popular in many places, just not here: http://www.statista.com/statistics/291540/mobile-internet-user-whatsapp/ http://www.statista.com/statistics/291540/mobile-internet-us...
- sangnoir 11y ago
  Outside of the US, not everyone has a phone capable of running iMessage or Hangouts. WhatsApp happily runs on feature-phones, because of network effects, many people who can run iMessage/Hangouts and WhatsApp
- mikeash 11y ago
  WhatsApp's user base is largely non-US, so I wouldn't expect you'd see many people in the US using it compared to its actual popularity.
- binxbolling 11y ago
  I've paid for WhatsApp and am in the US. Yes, I originally joined to chat with people overseas, but now it's also the sole messaging service I use with multiple US-based contacts. AMA I guess, since apparently fellow Americans don't understand WhatsApp.
  - nullrouted 11y ago
    Ya I never really used WhatsApp but I do use Telegram for my friends (US). Why Telegram over WhatsApp or Kik or whatever? Desktop client, it is nice to be able to reply without pulling out my phone at work.
    - nly 11y ago
      Well, there's Whatsapp Web, but it oddly requires you keep your phone connected.
  - oldmanjay 11y ago
    Replace "understand" with "care about" and it's a double win - you're closer to the truth, and you aren't condescending in service of defending your favored corporation.
MarkMc 11y ago
Because on average they only make about $0.05 per user per year [1]. I think they will struggle to grow that figure because messaging apps have very little lock-in. My friend John doesn't want to pay $1 to get WhatsApp? No problem - we can just use Telegram instead. [1] http://techcrunch.com/2014/10/28/whatsapp-revenue/ http://techcrunch.com/2014/10/28/whatsapp-revenue/
- sesutton 11y ago
  According to those numbers each WhatsApp user was only worth $4.66 to Facebook. That means WhatsApp needs to add 3.3 billion users to be worth the extra $15 billion.
darklajid 11y ago
It's .. an IM app (and arguably it wasn't a good one/a broken one for quite a while). Like AOL offered? ICQ? MSN? Okay, all dead. Xmpp? Skype? Lync? Hangout? Telegram? TextSecure? etc. etc. I'm sure I forgot lots of somewhat sensible/popular options. Basically it's not doing a lot, there are lots of alternatives, I see no way to keep users - or make them pay anything. I mean, I guess they pay with their privacy and/or first-born now that FB owns WhatsApp, but .. I - this is just me, my opinion - fail to see the point. Plus, I said that I - again, as in me personally - don't understand these companies and what they offer. No need to agree ofc. I haven't been an AOL user, I don't have a FB account or a WhatsApp account. My mom has no smart phone. My dad doesn't use WhatsApp as far as I know. Last but not least: Why would I want to get emoticons(?) or voice notes(??) from my mom? The former is .. useless. The latter? We use my smart _phone_ as a phone for that. I guess if you don't understand the value something brings to the table, everything is overvalued. I don't understand the value of smart watches. I don't understand the pay grade of football (as in, soccer) players. That doesn't mean that I want to slight the things I mention (or could add to the list), it's just that I am unable to understand these valuations. To see the value, you .. need to find value in something?
- jamesjyu 11y ago
  "To see the value, you .. need to find value in something?" I disagree. I think everyone is capable of empathizing with a market and understanding why something would bring value, even if it doesn't bring value to you specifically.
  - darklajid 11y ago
    That's fair. But it doesn't work like that for me. Now that I think about it, I can come up two reasons: 1) The sums involved. Both for the deals in question (AOL, WhatsApp) or in my football example, the sums are mind-bendingly large. I .. cannot grasp those. Millions are already insane, but billions? I have no clue how to value _anything_ at those levels. Certainly not things that aren't entirely new or special. My gut feeling says "That's far too much" a lot earlier already, more or less regardless of what we're talking about. 2) I guess the market is hard to estimate if you're not only not part of it, you're actively surrounding yourself with people that are like-minded. Sure, every WhatsApp user can tell a story about friends and family getting a lot of value out of it. Of course! In a similar fashion I can point out that none of my family members (as far as I'm aware) use it, none of my friends seems to require it, it .. doesn't exist in my ecosystem and the last person that asked if I am on WhatsApp - about 3 month ago - was a manager at work. I mean.. WTH? "No, and certainly not for work". It's reinforcing the initial position, confirming my bias. "No one uses it, no one needs it". Then again, maybe that _is_ a lack of empathy. You're the judge. I merely express my disbelief and sense of wonder here, if everyone thinks these values are cool then yes, I'm obviously wrong.

stevewilhelm 11y ago

WhatsApp has about a quarter of a billion (with a 'B') users worldwide.

eueueu 11y ago
how much do they pay WhatsApp each month?
- nostrademons 11y ago
  How much does your average TV viewer pay NBC/CBS/ABC/Fox per month?
  - flippant 11y ago
    That is an unfair analogy. Those networks make money from advertising. WhatsApp refuses to show ads.
    - nostrademons 11y ago
      Facebook has no such compunctions, though, which may be why Whatsapp is worth significantly more to Facebook than it is to Whatsapp.
- flippant 11y ago
  Approximately 10 cents.
- sososoko 11y ago
  this reminds of a recent episode of Silicon Valley, the eccentric billionaire Hanneman says, "If you show revenue, people will ask how much, and it will never be enough, It’s not about how much you earn but what you’re worth.....” Initially i didn't see the sense in the Whatsapp acquisition, i think it was purely defensive, as well as the data FB could get their hands on.
- gdilla 11y ago
  pretty irrelevant. FB is a publicly traded company, and as such, it's pretty easy to see how much a social user is 'worth' in revenue terms. Instagram turned on ads, and so will whatsapp, perhaps. but ya, we have a pretty good understanding what social users are worth when monetized by social ads. And the value is influenced by future growth.