7 ms·

Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles

65 points by crawshaw 11y ago

vonklaus 11y ago
Does anyone know how long something like the new Tesla powerwall lasts? What happens after the useful life of the hardware, can they be recycled/fixed?
- bronz 11y ago
  The warranty lasts 10 years. It is basically guaranteed to work for ten years. This is probably analogous to the 60k mile warranty that comes with a Prius. Nobody is junking their Prius after 60 thousand miles. Look at the press kit for more information. http://www.teslamotors.com/presskit/teslaenergy?via=newsletter&source=CSAMedition http://www.teslamotors.com/presskit/teslaenergy?via=newslett...
- bigiain 11y ago
  I'm not sure about the specific chemistry used in Teslas thing, but consumer grade Lithium Polymer cells are usually quoted as maintaining 80% of initial capacity after 1000 charge/discharge cycles (when using proper recharging gear - sub $10 Chinese toys often ignore charge requirements altogether and trash or set fire to lipos within a few dozen cycles). Which fit's quite well with observations of phone batteries becoming problematic after ~3 years of daily charging.
  - SeanLuke 11y ago
    Keep in mind that phone batteries, and laptop batteries, are generally charged to the top and then often completely exhausted. This is a worst case state-of-charge scenario for battery life, and doesn't happen in car batteries etc. For example, the Chevy Volt doesn't permit its battery to be charged over 80% or discharged less than 30%. GM expects its battery to drop only 10% after 5000 cycles.
    - MrFoof 11y ago
      Teslas do similar on the top-end. They don't normally charge past 80%. You can override this behavior in preparation for a long trip to ensure you have extra range available, but it reverts back to the default setting automatically after a few days.
      - SeanLuke 11y ago
        > They don't normally charge past 80%. I thought for Tesla it's 92% for a standard charge. The Volt is extremely conservative in this regard (Chevy was first out the gate).
        Animats 11y ago
        As Lutz says in his book "Car guys vs. bean counters", that was done to make the Leaf battery last longer. The car industry knows that 80% of trips are under 40 miles, so most of the time, that's enough range. Longer, and they cut in the gasoline engine, so there's no reason to stress the battery life.
        SeanLuke 11y ago
        ??? This was an entirely confused comment. (1) we are talking about SOC, not capacity, and (2) why are you talking about the Leaf?
dmritard96 11y ago
non paywall version?
- deleted 11y ago
  [deleted]
- jessriedel 11y ago
  http://rdcu.be/cIqD http://rdcu.be/cIqD
  - vonklaus 11y ago
    Doesn't work on mobile.
- Someone 11y ago
  Not the paper itself, but blog post from the authors, and (I think) has the main chart: http://www.rtcc.org/2015/03/23/falling-battery-prices-boost-outlook-for-electric-vehicles/ http://www.rtcc.org/2015/03/23/falling-battery-prices-boost-...
- jgome 11y ago
  http://libgen.org/scimag/index.php?s=Rapidly+falling+costs+of+battery+packs+for+electric+vehicles&journalid=&v=&i=&p=&redirect=1 http://libgen.org/scimag/index.php?s=Rapidly+falling+costs+o... (click on "10.1038/nclimate2564"; I had to rename the file from "get.php" to .pdf after downloading)
pcunite 11y ago
Personally, I'm very excited about electric vehicles. There are five in my family, so we have a big vehicle. So, to move something the size of a Suburban is a necessity. The Tesla Model X looks like a possibility.
- dublinben 11y ago
  Most full-size sedans can comfortably transport five adults. Get a station wagon, and you've got plenty of cargo space too. You don't really need a massive SUV.
  - evilduck 11y ago
    Most families of 5 have a number of years where they are not seating "five adults". I drive a sedan and have two kids under 5 years old, a 5th passenger is basically out of the question. If you had 3 kids in car seats, a vehicle with a third row is seating is your only option.
    - brc 11y ago
      I have 3 across the back seat, all in child seats. It's more possible than most people realise. Oversized child seats are a major cause of people driving cars bigger than they need to. I'm not sure how this has happened, but you can end up needing more space to fit a child than an adult would require. I suspect it's the proliferation of region- specific child restraint requirements, which has meant manufacturers have washed their hands of the problem. The car seat manufacturers have worked out that the more a seat looks like an oversized sofa for their precious cargo, the more sales they make. I doubt that an inch extra of foam padding makes any difference in a large impact, but it feeds into anxiety of new parents.
      - evilduck 11y ago
        I would basically agree except that it doesn't change the availability of smaller car seats, the small sofa chair car sest is practically a universal design, and the highest rated brands (which is largely synonymous with "convenient and well designed") are some of the worst offenders of space usage. I just transitioned one kid to a booster seat and it actually takes up an normal adult width finally.
Shivetya 11y ago
Battery cost is only part of the problem, the bigger problem is ability to charge where potential customers live and charging times. Unlike a conventionally fueled car, or EREV, there is no oops with a five minute fix. You forget to charge and you have to wait it out. I think a better application is instead of focusing on individual car buyers is to go for large government users of vehicles, namely the every day school bus. A neighboring county logs nearly sixty five thousand miles a day while school is in session. With nearly nine hundred routes that leaves an average near eighty miles. Considering the wasted space in the buses structure and replacement of the engine/drivetrain it certainly looks like a good option. Regardless of price decreases its the recharge rate that needs a lot of focus.
- aidenn0 11y ago
  I disagree, as the charge rate of a pack increases with its capacity. That is to say, there is a fixed time for a 0-100% charge, but as capacities increase, the time for a X mile charge decreases.
- dublinben 11y ago
  >the bigger problem is ability to charge where potential customers live Is this really a problem? Every EV I've ever seen offers a home charger that can be installed in your garage. I drive very few miles each week, and find going out of my way to stop at a gas station much more inconvenient than plugging in each night would be.
  - bigiain 11y ago
    Out of 6 or 7 friends who live within walking distance of me, I'm the only one with a garage - one of them has a side entrance/carport, everyone else parks on the street. (And depending on exactly what "install" means, putting one in my rental garage might not be possible.) Further afield, I've got quite a few friends who live in high-density residential buildings, where their "garage" is a space in the big lot underneath the building, and has no facility for power (and certailnly not individually metered power). Plugin electrics are good for people who own houses - not yet so good for everybody else.

65 points by crawshaw 11y ago

Does anyone know how long something like the new Tesla powerwall lasts? What happens after the useful life of the hardware, can they be recycled/fixed?

bronz 11y ago
The warranty lasts 10 years. It is basically guaranteed to work for ten years. This is probably analogous to the 60k mile warranty that comes with a Prius. Nobody is junking their Prius after 60 thousand miles. Look at the press kit for more information. http://www.teslamotors.com/presskit/teslaenergy?via=newsletter&source=CSAMedition http://www.teslamotors.com/presskit/teslaenergy?via=newslett...
bigiain 11y ago
I'm not sure about the specific chemistry used in Teslas thing, but consumer grade Lithium Polymer cells are usually quoted as maintaining 80% of initial capacity after 1000 charge/discharge cycles (when using proper recharging gear - sub $10 Chinese toys often ignore charge requirements altogether and trash or set fire to lipos within a few dozen cycles). Which fit's quite well with observations of phone batteries becoming problematic after ~3 years of daily charging.
- SeanLuke 11y ago
  Keep in mind that phone batteries, and laptop batteries, are generally charged to the top and then often completely exhausted. This is a worst case state-of-charge scenario for battery life, and doesn't happen in car batteries etc. For example, the Chevy Volt doesn't permit its battery to be charged over 80% or discharged less than 30%. GM expects its battery to drop only 10% after 5000 cycles.
  - MrFoof 11y ago
    Teslas do similar on the top-end. They don't normally charge past 80%. You can override this behavior in preparation for a long trip to ensure you have extra range available, but it reverts back to the default setting automatically after a few days.
    - SeanLuke 11y ago
      > They don't normally charge past 80%. I thought for Tesla it's 92% for a standard charge. The Volt is extremely conservative in this regard (Chevy was first out the gate).
      - Animats 11y ago
        As Lutz says in his book "Car guys vs. bean counters", that was done to make the Leaf battery last longer. The car industry knows that 80% of trips are under 40 miles, so most of the time, that's enough range. Longer, and they cut in the gasoline engine, so there's no reason to stress the battery life.
        SeanLuke 11y ago
        ??? This was an entirely confused comment. (1) we are talking about SOC, not capacity, and (2) why are you talking about the Leaf?

dmritard96 11y ago

non paywall version?

deleted 11y ago
[deleted]
jessriedel 11y ago
http://rdcu.be/cIqD http://rdcu.be/cIqD
- vonklaus 11y ago
  Doesn't work on mobile.
Someone 11y ago
Not the paper itself, but blog post from the authors, and (I think) has the main chart: http://www.rtcc.org/2015/03/23/falling-battery-prices-boost-outlook-for-electric-vehicles/ http://www.rtcc.org/2015/03/23/falling-battery-prices-boost-...
jgome 11y ago
http://libgen.org/scimag/index.php?s=Rapidly+falling+costs+of+battery+packs+for+electric+vehicles&journalid=&v=&i=&p=&redirect=1 http://libgen.org/scimag/index.php?s=Rapidly+falling+costs+o... (click on "10.1038/nclimate2564"; I had to rename the file from "get.php" to .pdf after downloading)

pcunite 11y ago

Personally, I'm very excited about electric vehicles. There are five in my family, so we have a big vehicle. So, to move something the size of a Suburban is a necessity. The Tesla Model X looks like a possibility.

dublinben 11y ago
Most full-size sedans can comfortably transport five adults. Get a station wagon, and you've got plenty of cargo space too. You don't really need a massive SUV.
- evilduck 11y ago
  Most families of 5 have a number of years where they are not seating "five adults". I drive a sedan and have two kids under 5 years old, a 5th passenger is basically out of the question. If you had 3 kids in car seats, a vehicle with a third row is seating is your only option.
  - brc 11y ago
    I have 3 across the back seat, all in child seats. It's more possible than most people realise. Oversized child seats are a major cause of people driving cars bigger than they need to. I'm not sure how this has happened, but you can end up needing more space to fit a child than an adult would require. I suspect it's the proliferation of region- specific child restraint requirements, which has meant manufacturers have washed their hands of the problem. The car seat manufacturers have worked out that the more a seat looks like an oversized sofa for their precious cargo, the more sales they make. I doubt that an inch extra of foam padding makes any difference in a large impact, but it feeds into anxiety of new parents.
    - evilduck 11y ago
      I would basically agree except that it doesn't change the availability of smaller car seats, the small sofa chair car sest is practically a universal design, and the highest rated brands (which is largely synonymous with "convenient and well designed") are some of the worst offenders of space usage. I just transitioned one kid to a booster seat and it actually takes up an normal adult width finally.

Shivetya 11y ago

Battery cost is only part of the problem, the bigger problem is ability to charge where potential customers live and charging times. Unlike a conventionally fueled car, or EREV, there is no oops with a five minute fix. You forget to charge and you have to wait it out. I think a better application is instead of focusing on individual car buyers is to go for large government users of vehicles, namely the every day school bus. A neighboring county logs nearly sixty five thousand miles a day while school is in session. With nearly nine hundred routes that leaves an average near eighty miles. Considering the wasted space in the buses structure and replacement of the engine/drivetrain it certainly looks like a good option. Regardless of price decreases its the recharge rate that needs a lot of focus.

aidenn0 11y ago
I disagree, as the charge rate of a pack increases with its capacity. That is to say, there is a fixed time for a 0-100% charge, but as capacities increase, the time for a X mile charge decreases.
dublinben 11y ago
>the bigger problem is ability to charge where potential customers live Is this really a problem? Every EV I've ever seen offers a home charger that can be installed in your garage. I drive very few miles each week, and find going out of my way to stop at a gas station much more inconvenient than plugging in each night would be.
- bigiain 11y ago
  Out of 6 or 7 friends who live within walking distance of me, I'm the only one with a garage - one of them has a side entrance/carport, everyone else parks on the street. (And depending on exactly what "install" means, putting one in my rental garage might not be possible.) Further afield, I've got quite a few friends who live in high-density residential buildings, where their "garage" is a space in the big lot underneath the building, and has no facility for power (and certailnly not individually metered power). Plugin electrics are good for people who own houses - not yet so good for everybody else.